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Jeff Horn v Manny Pacquiao: How they stack up in the title bout

In speed, style, skill and experience, they are worlds apart. But Jeff Horn ticks some boxes of his own as he tries to dethrone the welterweight champion in Brisbane.

Phil Lutton
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Nerves

Talent aside, the lingering question about this fight has been how well Jeff Horn can handle the biggest occasion of his career. It's not a small jump, either. Horn has been fighting on undercards in New Zealand and headlining small shows in Australia, but this is another universe for the softly spoken contender.

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Pacquiao and Horn weigh in

Manny Pacquiao and Jeff Horn have weighed in ahead of Sunday's fight at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane.

When another Australian, Alex Leapai, fought for a world title in 2014 against Wladimir Klitschko, he was so overwhelmed by the occasion that he could barely raise his fists. He was duly pummelled.

Horn looks a far classier fighter than Leapai, but being able to stick to the plan will be crucial to his chances.

Manny Pacquiao will handle it on his ear.

Preparation

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If you listen to the Pacquiao camp, their man has become a knockout machine once again, dropping sparring partners in training and destined to do the same against Horn. They also think Jeff Horn's trainer, Glenn Rushton, is as out of his depth as his fighter and has chosen poor sparring partners, in particular Filipino, Czar Amonsot.

Knockout machine: Manny Pacquiao trains in Brisbane.

Knockout machine: Manny Pacquiao trains in Brisbane.

How much of this is bluster will be revealed in the ring.

The fact is, Pacquiao hasn't stopped an opponent since 2009 and the pressure has been poured on him by his own management and training team to end that run of outs. If he forces the issue, he's not above making a mistake.

As for Horn, he and his camp are in new territory. We shall all find out soon enough if they have pulled the right strings.

Age gap

Jeff Horn enters the ring with a far thinner boxing CV, but one potentially vital advantage even the great Pacquiao can't defeat: time.

At 38 and with much of his time now spent in Senate sittings instead of a gym, there is the real chance that the years could catch up with the champion faster than expected.

LAS VEGAS, NV - NOVEMBER 05: Jessie Vargas (L) and Manny Pacquiao battle in the third round of their WBO welterweight championship fight at the Thomas & Mack Center on November 5, 2016 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Pacquiao won by unanimous decision. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

Comeback win: Manny Pacquiao fought Jessie Vargas in Las Vegas in November. Photo: Getty Images

He looked good in his comeback win over Jessie Vargas in November and has some of the best legs in the business. At his peak, 12 hard rounds wouldn't be any sort of concern for the 11-time champ. But should Horn absorb Pacquiao's shots and take it deep, youth may be the challenger's decisive weapon.

Styles

Think Pacquiao, think speed, think angles.

The Filipino has made a career with his blinding hands, throws combinations of punches in sevens and eights and can overwhelm opponents, or catch them when they try to close the gap. Ask Ricky Hatton how that worked out.

If Horn stands in range and decides to trade, it could be a swift main event.

The question for Pacquiao is if he still has the power to go with the lightning fists. Even when he fought Floyd Mayweather, he unloaded on the ropes with minimal impact. But Horn would be mad to try and test his luck and his chin for the fun of it.

BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA - JANUARY 12: Boxer Jeff Horn poses for a photo on January 12, 2017 in Brisbane, Australia. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Fairfax Media)

Power and accuracy: If Horn tries to match Pacquiao in a speed contest it will be a short bout. Photo: Bradley Kanaris

What he lacks in speed he makes up in power and a highly accurate right hand, which has KO'd​ his past three opponents. He's worked hard on his movement, but needs to lift that even further to avoid a crisp Pacquiao left to the jaw. He prides himself on being adaptable, awkward and throws a good uppercut.

Game plan

By the sounds of it, Pacquiao wants to end things early, so much so that a grinding win over 12 rounds would have Freddie Roach telling him to retire.

In that case, expect the champion to test Horn early, go on the attack and press the issue. He will look to control the ring, back Horn up until he gets just the right distance and unleash his combinations.

He's a southpaw, so watch him set up Horn for the left hand, which has spelled the end of plenty of opponents. He ducks the head, then unleashes. It comes quick and fast and was too sharp for Vargas to handle.

Will Horn fare any better?

Rushton wants Horn to be cautious in the early rounds and work his way into the contest. Expect the Australian to work the body whenever possible and try to bully Pacquiao around the ring with his bigger body. That's where he can do some damage.

Our verdict

Without doubt, Horn deserves his outsider odds. This is the horse racing equivalent of winning 10 straight at Kempsey before a group 1 at Randwick. But who wants to tip the odds-on pop?

Game face: Manny Pacquiao and Jeff Horn after weighing in at Suncorp Stadium before Sunday's fight.

Game face: Manny Pacquiao and Jeff Horn after weighing in at Suncorp Stadium before Sunday's fight. Photo: John Pye

Pacquiao is boxing royalty, has fought the best of the best throughout his career and wants to prove to the world he's still a force to be feared. To do that, he wants to destroy Horn in front of his hometown fans.

BUT – and it is a large but – there's no doubt Pacquiao and his team have sold their opponent short. Horn hasn't fought anyone of real note but has improved every time he's stepped out, is hugely self-aware, has a massive crowd in his corner and wants this more than the man in the other corner.

If he stays out of trouble early, he'll end the Pacman's career in round 10.

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