The Russians already have S-300 and S-400 missiles in place around Syria and this is sufficient to cover much of the country. More of them would be superfluous.
Then there is the point that the Russians haven't used the existing missiles to stop egregious US and Israeli attacks against Assad's forces. That is, the missiles are utterly useless without the political will to employ them.
Half baked military engagement is ALWAYS a loser action.
If the locals are not willing to die for their side then there is nothing the USA can do to change the situation and should just accept the situation and leave.
All indications are the Taliban are more mentally into the fight than the Afghan army, so no matter how many "advisors" (actually mercenaries) the USA dumps into the country, the situation will not get any better.
If the USA wants to defeat the Taliban, they will have to put several hundred thousand USA troops on the ground to die in large numbers until all the population is dead or subjugated. The it will have to install a puppet government and protect the (fake) government with several hundred thousands troops forever at great expense to the USA taxpayers and cannon fodder "donor" families.
The USA can NOT do anything in Afghanistan that has not already been tried by the loser Brits (THREE TIMES) or the loser Soviets, or any of the losers that have attacked Afghanistan over the last several thousand years and went away defeated.
The USA has LOST in Afghanistan and we should just admit it and walk away from a losing action. There is NO WAY the USA can "win" in any sense of the word in Afghanistan.
Iran does NOT want war with the USA, BUT they will not be pushed around by the USA and Russia will be glad to help them if the USA attacks.
Iran will try to send diplomatic signals for the USA to back off, but trump is too stupid to understand and he has decimated the state department so there are few left that can even shout at him to stop, even though he will not listen.
Iran will probably NOT make an first strikes but will react very forcibly when attacked.
The real problem is trump has a "divine right king" mentality and he will do what he wants regardless what is actually best for the USA. Trump is all ego and no thought, similar to a certain German ruler that made lots of mistakes due to ego during the 1930s and 1940s.
Truth can't be surpressed, it is a pressure cooker waiting to explode. Even placing a ban on teaching evolution theory is a victory for Science. New generations are socially and politically aware, they are not as naive as the older generation. The future is theirs and Science shapes our future today.
Dr. Cole, I think you are right to knock down all the Russian speculations, but I would suggest one thing that would contribute to the analysis: it seems apparent that it's no use any more talking about "the United States" in terms of policy. The Russians are making a huge mistake when they try to identify what US policy actually is, because there isn't one. There are many.
There are now at least five sources of policy: the White House, State, the Pentagon, the CIA, and the units in the field.
For example, it seems that the shoot-down of the Syrian aircraft a few weeks ago was not the first four, but was instead a decision by the local American commander in the area, without consultation. It was not "US policy", but the policy of that commander, that was exercised in that instance.
It's currently the policy of the Pentagon to work through the Kurds. But there's every reason to believe that the CIA is still supplying assistance to Al Nusra.
And we've seen the still unresolved loggerheads between Pentagon and State on one side, and the White House on the other with respect to Qatar.
There is no "United States" any more with respect to foreign policy. There are competing servants of Trump, because that's the way he runs his businesses. He puts his employees at each other's throats, because that's the way he likes it.
After Libya went bad, the US position has been that Assad should go but that the Syrian government should not be overthrown. Under Trump it isn't even clear that the position is any longer that Assad must go.
The idea that the US is trying to install al-Qaeda in Damascus is looney toons.
The Trump EPA budget "zeros" the EnergyStar Program because POTUS Petty Vindictive hates the program, 11 of 14 of Trump's hotels fail to comply with the standard. On a scale of 1 to 100, a Park Avenue complex owned by Trump that was formerly the Mayflower Hotel rated 1 point.
Someone needs to tell Trump that the EnergyStar Program was not an Obama initiative but a Poppy Bush program.
My brother had asked his Pakistani colleagues at a party, most of whom are doctors by profession and in the US, whether they believed in evolution. Almost all did not. Considering some of their positions included research he wondered how they could dismiss it when their profession was built on and depended on that knowledge.
Not surprisingly a lot of Pakistanis seem to support this anti-science initiative by Turkey, besides their support for Erdogan, whose like their new Islamic Sultan that's going to bring back glory to the Muslim world for them somehow.
I remember the Turkish Harun Yahya (otherwise known as Adnan Oktar) character who seemed to gain popularity amongst Muslim groups years earlier, including in the West, propagating anti-evolution (anti-science) beliefs and promoting an Islamic creationist narrative. Not surprisingly he was picked up by Pakistani TV personality Shahid Masood, which just mainstreamed more religious pseudo-science misinformation. The topic on evolution is now harder to teach or just skipped altogether by some teachers.
That would be a classic sweet lemon rationalization on their part. Not inconsistent with this gang of positive/magical thinkers. The question now is whether the lesson sunk in well enough to repeat.
Was this White House announcement possibly based on some fake news taken from some alt-right website/blog/radio "news" outlet? Donnie Demento does regularly pass along bits of idiocy from these sites. More probable is that Donnie's dementia has reached the stage where he is experiencing delusions, suspicions and paranoia, common symptoms of this malady. How dangerously irrational will he have to become before Pence and Congress pull the plug on this ridiculous situation? Everyone who is enabling this travesty should be ashamed.
The questions I have are would the Russians allow Iran to go the way of Syria? Can the Iranians do enough damage to US interests to convince Trump to back off?
Representatives of the USG have stated "Assad must go" to many times to count. The US desire for regime change is documented over a span of at least a decade if not further. The various USG connected think tanks have issued many "white papers" setting forth destabilization and partition plans. Trump and his administration insiders are totally obsessed with Iran. The hatred is palpable.
Given those facts, assuming this move is not some sort of plan to advance regime change is really naive.
Moreover, if in fact the intel does not support the claim, it is extremely immoral. The opposition, including ISIS, are clearly losing on the ground. Staging an incident to provoke a large US attack on government forces is their only hope for deposing Assad. Saudi Arabia and UAE hate Assad even more than Trump. They are currently engaging in genocide in Yemen. They are clearly capable of staging a false flag operation, and only a complete idiot would think they would not do so for moral reasons. A false claim such as this can only be seen as an invitation to stage a false flag event. Assad is an official US propaganda target. Our "media" would merrily go along while cheering enthusiastically.
Yes, the Kurds can carve out their own enclave without a false flag attack, and I don't think they have any real incentive to do so. But would that really satisfy the regime change advocates? I doubt if the Kurds are really interested in holding on to Sunni areas anyway. Does the USG really trust the Kurds not to cut a deal with Assad?
Unfortunately Americans will pay a very high price, both individually and as a country.
The possible opponents are all capable of brutally punishing the USA military if not winning outright.
The costs will be many Americans dead and economic bankruptcy.
Iran has been preparing very carefully for USA invasion for over 35 years and they are prepared to brutally punish the USA if not drive it back to the USA in defeat. Iran has carefully studied USA tactics and has developed counter-tactics. Iran has carefully studied USA weapons and has developed very effective counter-weapons. Basically Iran has the capability to severely wound the USA even if no one else helps, BUT both Russia and China have publicly said the y would help Iran.
If the USA pushes too hard in Syria, the USA will find itself in a war with Russia and Iran which it will lose badly after paying very high costs.
The bottom line is if the USA starts a war, either deliberately or by stupid accident, it will permanently damage itself and its economy and most Americans (the 99%) will have much worse lives.
FYI - the USA does not have the manpower to fight a war without drafting millions of Americans. in the REAL WORLD technology can not replace humans when it comes to war - armies still need cannon fodder. I wonder how Americans will like that?
The simple REALITY is due to technology, the earth now has a huge excess of workers.
That is, **ALL** the goods and services needed or wanted by the 7.5 billion humans on earth can easily be provided by about 4 billion humans and that number is decreasing by the day as technology eliminates the need for humans in most activities.
So, in the coming decades this will mean that less and less humans will be able to find jobs. It appears that there will soon be 25 humans competing for every available job on earth and the ones with the best trained brains will be the ones that succeed.
Basically what is happening is religious based education which ignores REALITY in favor of the myth, will end up handicapping young adults who will not have a good background in the sciences and math.
Of course the students that understand how their education is handicapping them just may rebel and in the end reject religion.
Anti-intellectualism will not succeed in the end, especially in a world where the entire earth's knowledge is available to most people 24/7/365 and censoring the Internet is an extremely complex and mostly losing proposition. Nations that over censor the Internet, will lose out in the global economy.
What puzzles me is why parents would doom their kids to a miserable existence rather than want them to get well educated so they can succeed in a future world. All to protect some myths.
Note that the new base will be ringed by S-300 systems because Russia is rapidly replacing all their S-300 systems with S-400 systems resulting in lots of surplus S-300 systems.
Having a Russian base near Damascus will complicate USA regime change attempts.
It is long past time for the USA to just accept Assad and quit trying to play the grand master in a losing game.
"The US has more high-tech weapons than others, but those haven’t done it much good; it hasn’t won a war since 1945."
I don’t think winning is the point. Winning shuts down the perpetual motion money machine. Otherwise what economy is there left besides paper pushing on Wall Street?
The Russian army has quietly started construction of a new military base in the countryside near Damascus... This will be Moscow’s third base in Syria – the other two have troops, sophisticated weaponry and support systems to bolster the military operation against ISIS – and this new one will help implement the eight-point ‘deconfliction’ program for the border area agreed upon by Russia, the US and Jordan while also working to ensure humanitarian aid reaches besieged villages and towns.
It is extremely unfortunate that science is sacrificed at the altar of power struggle. Who would have imagined that Turkey a secular country would take 180 degree turn simply to hoodwink its people in the name of religion. Our country Pakistan also underwent the same frenzy and now it has become a violent place where terrorism of all hue and cry has found a safe haven in. Polarizing a country is the biggest sin a leader can possibly commit and Erdogan is well on his away to accomplish this abominable task.
This represents another step in Turkey's turn toward the [Mid]East and away from Europe under Erdoğan's leadership. His neo-Ottoman vision conjures the glories of Mehmet and Süleyman, but more likely will be a Neo-Hamidian return of "The Sick Man."
this is why you dont play around with lying about war. once you start the fog of war gets thick at foggy bottom. cities are leveled and society is traumatized.
and people consider this clown the leader of the free world? right he's a clown. each night a lot of us in North America wait for Stephen corbet, Trevor Noah, and Seth Myers to do their monologues skewering Trump for all the stupid things he says and does each day. When you think of it this man keeps a min. of 3 comedians/political satirists busy 4 to 5 nights a week and the rest of us in stiches laughing.
Every day its another stupid comment by Trump and his political allies. Much of it defies logic if not common sense. They're jokes.
this evening Stephen Corbett ran a series of announcements by trump saying there were big plans and in a couple of weeks they would be announced. well nothing ever gets announced. His latest pronouncement was regarding health care, there will be a "big surprise" in a couple of weeks. Right just like all the other announcements. The man only knows how to sit at a small desk have people standing around him while he signs pieces of paper which actually don't have any real meaning in law.
so if the clown prince of the U.S.A. is now making statements regarding bombs in Syria, he might want to offer proof because not many are going to believe him. He is just deflecting because his health care bill is going no where. If the American generals don't know about any Syrian bomb, who knows perhaps Trump's good friend Putin told him or the tooth fairy. Trump in my opinion is an idiot and may be suffering from early onset of dementia. he sure acts like it and his forgetful ness of previous messages, well............
The key to all this could well lie in the ...that the late-Monday White House announcement had already deterred Syria from use of poison gas since Trump's main purpose seems to be to bolster support among the faithful. All he has to do now you see is conjure a danger, make a threat and, voila, even the demon Assad is cowed. Meanwhile he gains his popularity boost without upsetting any apple carts, adds an element of lustre to US Intel, and saves 60 million smackeroonies. Not bad for an evening's work.
The White House announcement was a lame attempt to counter the Seymour Hersh article debunking the putative April gas attack. I'd suggest the WH thought the article would get wider circulation than it did.
By suppressing the Hersh article the media (and certain academics) have unwittingly done Trump a service.
Thanks for clearing the mud from the situation, even though unfortunately what remains is the core confusion and idiot's bullying at the heart of the Trump maladministration.
I assume that anything coming out of the Oval Office, and that means Bannon, Miller and Kushner also, is intended to 1) intimidate, 2) mislead, and 3) ultimately pave the way for unilateral right-wing Israeli government's triumph. The underlying thinking is going to be dangerously - insanely - wrongheaded and counterproductive to even their own goals. But that of course doesn't prevent it from happening.
Even with fracking, it is unlikely that petroleum could meet world demand in 2050 if there were not EVs or renewables. Since there are, we won't ever find out.
Try diagramming your submission. You have not said anything, but have implied some propaganda. I would not normally even bother with it but it is a reply.
Two wrongs don't make a right.
Assad provoked the Civil War to stay in power and is one of the great monsters of the young twenty-first century.
Ok, that's a point. But so is the fact that the UN has vetoes & often equally not legit. How come Saudi Arabia is there? Wanting to chair Human Rights I read !!!!
If we go back to the early days of the rebellions, with all the diversity of groups vying for supremecy, what's the bet Assad, who protects diverse groups himself (do the "virtuous" GoP not care about the the Xtns there?) would have won on a Winner Take All system?
Decomcracy is itself diverse; lots of people in the world don't think Trump is legitimately elected seeing he didn't win a majority vote. Or have to form a coalition as happens elsewhere.
It is absolutely not true that 17 intelligence agencies endorsed the Russia hacking dossier. In fact it was four, and their "assessment" (ie, opinion piece) was written by "hand picked" analysts, according to the DNI. To date, their hasn't been any hard evidence released to substantiate the charge.
After I wrote this I realized that the phrase "our values of freedom and democracy" is not valid anymore. I'm not ;sure we have either in our own country right now. What i meant was our traditional foreign policy values of promoting freedom and democracy, which of course often gave way to power politics and supporting anti-communist dictatorships.
Yes, the initial US response to the earlier episode also stunk.
What I've noticed is how hamstrung US politicians are by the emotional PR optics of such weapons.
It would be easy, and irresistible, not to try a false-flag with a target so big, powerful, and demonstrably gullible.
Obama may have even suspected something amiss. His red line "promise", was merely that such an attack would "change the calculus", not that it'd trigger any particular action. He hardly hesitated to grab for that Russian lifeline. Later, note how he described that act of resisting political pressure as one of his proudest moments.
Trump's knee, in this case was clearly flailing. We need to expect more fishy "provocations" along these lines.
1. Syria is not at the center of the main petroleum fields (Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia).
2. Syria has no access or border to the Red Sea.
3. This is doubly true of Suez.
I'm also curious about why the US requires a change of government (the current government is freely elected so the catchphrase of "regime change" does not apply) in Syria.
Is there even enough oil left to enable a sustained economic recovery?
Just before the blowout in 08 cheap gasoline was $4.29 in my area. Bouncing around 5 bucks other places.
That was a huge hit on truckers, landscapers, construction and others who used a lot of liquid fuel. Fuel costs drive material costs, along with supply. Everything used to build a house went way up. Copper wire went from 45 to 145 for 250' of 12/2. Lumber went up what, 50%? Strangely production of hand drive nails moved to China and prices more than doubled for 1# of nails.
08 was a combination of bad stuff not just the bank fraud. Because of demand prices became unsustainable.
Even without the fraud oil prices would have eventually crashed the economy.
I think there's not enough oil to rebuild the economy so green is essential if this is going to ever happen.
Any resource if demand outstrips production by even a tiny bit, prices will skyrocket. It's a natural limit on growth.
Cheers
Prior and on-going global deforestation, prior and on-going irresponsible use of fossil-fuels and the toxic waste have likely already sealed our fate as a bountiful planet continuing into the next Century.
Great write up on energy and transportation trends. I hope that BICYCLES along with mass transit and electric vehicles are the future of transportation. I work commute mostly by bicycle and mass transit (Metro Trains in LA) and drive a Prius once in a while.
Now that the pathological liar-in-chief denier acknowledges there was in-fact Russian interference in his election. What will he do about it? So far, in the name of defending our country against this continuing threat:
• Blame it all on Obama.
• Eliminate those investigating Russia from authority.
• Officially mock those concerned over the Russian "attack" on our national elections.
• Make broad unsubstantiated counter-attacks on media intent tacitly on behalf of Russia.
• Takes no action against Putin or Russians responsible.
Under Trump will we see the TU-95 Bear over Texas?
U.S. intelligence agencies – 17 of them – agree that evidence shows the Russian government hacked the Democratic National Committee and waged a campaign to influence voters in 2016.
This is not actually true. It's a "fact" that gets tossed out but is no truer today than it was when Hillary Clinton made the statement during a debate last Fall. When Hillary made the statement the number of agencies/offices that had "signed" off on this idea was two. Since then that number has increased to three. Far cry from the seventeen that gets bandied about with no factual basis. Even the number three is circumspect in that a large portion of the report had nothing to do with cyber espionage, but supposed biased coverage of RT and Sputnik, and there is little actual evidence, but just conclusions by analysts.
The analysts could be correct, but there's almost no real evidence. The FBI never was granted access to the server that was hacked. The code that CrowdStrike claims to have discovered is over five years old, and available to hackers, so not definitive proof of Russian government hacking. The CIA report had even less physical evidence, its conclusions solely based on analysts interpretations, yet this is treated like hard evidence.
I'm not sure which gas attack you are referring to, but the original one was extensively investigated and Human Rights Watch had people there on the ground within a day or two. Here's a report that summarizes the UN report.link to bbc.com
The Syrian government was not elected. Police states often stage spectacles of coerced acclamation they call elections. Syria lost its seat at the UN and is not legitimate.
Republicans and especially neocons are incredibly short sighted. They still think that the US can dominate the world and enforce a Pax Americana. That is foolish nonsense. What the US should be doing is preparing for the day when we are no longer the world's top super power. We should be working to set up an international regime that supports and encourages our values of freedom and democracy. This means fostering alliances and working with and through the UN with like minded powers, the exact opposite of what Trump and the neocons prefer. In such an international system, a positive view of US leadership is crucial for success. Go it alone nationalism is doomed to fail given our current and future international environment.
The 37% of Europeans who think relations with the US will deteriorate is particularly interesting, and it's worth bearing in mind that this view reflects European attitudes to a process that is under way, rather than something that will likely occur at some future time. One strong contributory element here is Russian sanctions. Most Europeans are beginning to feel that the problems of Ukraine require a more nuanced, less punitive approach because the present stand-off is not solving the issue while many European commercial interests are suffering for what is increasingly viewed as a US obsession that has become bogged down and is effecting them more negatively than the US. There is also the issue of the Nord Stream pipeline where again Europeans feel sanctions are an attempt deliberately to hinder progress which would offer cheaper Russian gas in order to promote US LNG exports. The situation is dynamic and not just going to sit there. Kites have even been flown suggesting reciprocal sanctions on US LNG exports to Europe.
The American govt. Has 3 separate and distinct power centers. The WH, the Dept formerly known as State ( aka the International Chamber of Commerce), and the MIC. They do speak as one voice, but 3.
That was an excellent article from the Iranian perspective..I
have always had trouble visualising the timeline and the fluidity of power in antiquity within the muslim world. That outlined it succinctly in a few paragrauphs.
Anybody get the impression the house of Saud is going after the North Pars gas deposit for reasons stated above?
The ugly American has surfaced. I was recently in Milan and an Italian citizen answered when I said I could not understand how anyone could watch Trump for 10 minutes and want to vote for him "Trump represents what America is". Sadly that is our image now.
I can assure you professor that the English public are every bit as gullible as the American public. We swallowed the lying spew from Tony Blair's mouth about the Iraq war, "hook, line and sinker" Our own members of parliament also fell for the fake stories that Blair and Bush were telling them. In Blair's defense, he did at least ask parliament for a vote which he won. As you rightly point out, Trump was adored when he fired missiles at Syria but treated with disdain when the media have put the story on the back burner. Trump needs another war boost and as it looks like the Syrian government are planning another chemical attack, so he can expect to be popular again any time now.
As far as respect for the president is concerned, the American people treat stupidity as though it were a virtue! When Trump goes off on a bombing spree to Syria he is lauded by the media, congress, the republicans, the democrats and everyone else in the deep state as a hero. Yet when the novelty of the wizz bangs of missiles wears off, its back to mocking the president again. It looks like there is another chemical weapons attack brewing in Syria so Trump will probably bomb the hell out of the Syrian government this time and once again become everyone's darling.
Very sensible viewpoint, Prof. as seen from outside the US where Russia isn't actually demonised these days!
It seems ludicrous to me that anyone can think Putin wants a war with the US - for the reasons you state.
I think Trump is a loathsome toad but the only good idea he had was to end the stand-off with Russia. (The only reason that might be unadvisable is if there is any truth in the idea that the Oil nations are in cosnpiracy to defeat attempts at green energy).
IF Putin personally approved attempts to upset the US election, then Hillary Clinton brought it on herself, living as she seems to in Cold War mode. There's a form of blowback here - threatened people usually try to defend themselves eventually!
The US establishment comes over as a grudge-holder of mammoth proportions. Iran, Russia, poor little Cuba... I'm from NZ where a refusal - at the request of our PEOPLE - to allow nuclear ships in our territory had us shunned considerably for 25 years! Frankly, under recentish & current management I hope you keep on shunning!
I too notice that Putin has international law on his side in Syria - he's there at the request of the elected govt. (even if it is bad) & sounds reasonable in his attitude to matters in the international arena.
But then, the US MIC is bigger than Russia's & has more to lose if peace was to break out, yes?
Thank you very much, again, Juan, for mentioning how
"It appears to me that the wealthy and corporations have for decades deliberately been interfering in the quality of public education, in hopes of producing pliant dupes rather than citizens with a critical faculty. ... The number of Americans who are unable to understand simple principles of science such as that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere produces a greenhouse effect is deeply embarrassing to this country. "
I have been pushing this argument for a long time, and I intend to keep pushing.
As a writer on human history and futures, I want to be an optimist, I personally have to be an optimist to make it through any day. As a worker in a big retail marketplace, even in a hip neighborhood in a progressive West Coast city, the amount of human ignorance, blind self-centeredness, and selfishness I have to deal with every day is not conducive to optimism. Yet there are many nice, smart people too.
We need to see the larger danger. The package of technologies used in the Russian project against the 2016 election are probably available to any sizable nation that's willing to make the investment, including the US. That's bad news. Like drones, any new technology that is successfully used to damage rivals (which was the very least that Putin was attempting to do) while evading the definition of "act of war" will be exploited by all great powers. Get out of the mindset of all evil coming from Russia or all evil coming from America. All evil is what you can get away with.
And elections, under these circumstances, may have just been rendered obsolete. The accusations against Russia are that it attempted attacks on the voting machines themselves using a stolen NSA key - which itself proves that this is not just a Russian threat, that it attempted attacks on voter data lists in Democratic districts, and that it manipulated anonymous Internet commenters to alter consensus on who we should vote for. So we don't really know who to vote for, who should be allowed to vote, or who really voted for whom.
And that is what every country is going to try to do to its enemies.
Don't deny the implications of that because you don't want an excuse for renewed hostilities between the US and Russia. Under these conditions, we will all be living in Orwell's world anyway.
The only solution is a strategic election-fraud ban between the major powers. I see no way that can happen when Russia and the US are led by men tied together by an act of election fraud which they refuse to investigate, and the only other major power out there is Communist China.
I am ignorant of much of the history of this area but long ago came to believe that nothing in this area of the world is a national security issue for the U.S. So tell me why we need to be there.
“Persons attempting to find a motive in this narrative will be prosecuted; persons attempting to find a moral in it will be banished; persons attempting to find a plot in it will be shot.”
BY ORDER OF THE AUTHOR
per
G.G., CHIEF OF ORDNANCE
― Mark Twain,
The worship of the past is what holds the Right together. Misrepresenting that past into an absurd cafeteria of self-serving injustices is what keeps its leaders on top. But all these different pasts share the characteristic of inequality, of making "our kind" the masters. Other pasts, like say that of the Amish or the Aboriginies, are conveniently absent.
It makes my skin crawl to be taking the same side as Erdoğan in this matter; but, as they say, even a stopped clock is right twice a day. As odious as he is, he can't hold a candle to the utterly corrupt despots in Riyadh.
If these crooks were Democrats, Rudy Giuliani and a clown-car full of Fox [so-called] News commentators would be screaming for the Trump/Kushner Crime Family to be prosecuted under RICO.
Sy Hersh isn’t the only one to challenge the assertion that the Syrian government is using chemical weapons. Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS) have raised serious questions about the US narrative. As far as a weak army leveling the playing field, the alleged attack in April that led to Trump’s Cruise missile attack made neither strategic nor tactical sense for the Syrian army. But as a false flag it made eminent sense.
Mr. Cole, what strategic necessity are you currently referring to that the Syrian government would use gas? They are making steady progress. Have been for a while. And on what basis do you assert al nusra doesn't have Chem capability? My understanding was that in 2013 dozens of CIA analysts were in active revolt and would not sign onto an intelligence estimate that claimed, along with kerry, just that. These analysts knew the administrations claims that only the Syrian government was capable of this were false and that al nusra and other groups had, and had probably used chemical weapons already. The UN had also stated before the 2013 ghouta attack that they believed a precious small attack was rebels.
It's strange Richard. We are supposed to just believe Professor Cole about these gas attacks. The American national security institutions have done nothing but prevaricate since at least the Bush years (I didn't follow the foreign policy of the Clinton presidency as closely as the Bush one, the Reagan administration was equally as rotten at its core as Bush II). I don't see any reason we should accept them at their word now, particularly when it goes against all good sense. Opthalmologists (Bassad al-Assad's chosen profession, he moved to politics only after the death of his brother) with nice Western wives are not generally inclined to rash steps or particular cruelty.
From what I can tell, the worst thing Bashar al-Assad did in his life was to allow the CIA to set up dark sites in Syria at the time of the second Iraq war. Current American treatment is a peculiar way to pay back your friends.
What is very curious about Professor Cole's antipathy for Bashar al-Assad and the Syrian government is that he is usually one of the most balanced commentators in the American blogosphere on the Israel-Palestinian issue.
"Also in that war, there were regime apologists who tried to blame Iran itself, which is ridiculous."
Yep, apologists like . . . the U.S. State Department, the CIA and the DIA, because of course Saddam was our boy back then and Iran was doubleplusungood.
The U.S. intelligence community will inevitably blame chemical attacks on whomever the current official enemy happens to be.
If their bosses wanted to blame the Pygmies of central Africa I'm sure they could whip something up.
Not that I expect this comment to be published since the intel community is anti-Trump and therefore now can do no wrong . . .
Actually no, the small attacks since 2013 were all chlorine. The only time Sarin was suggested as a weapon was the 2013 attack, which again had many more questions than people want to answer.
Like, why would Syrian forces use Chemical weapons on a strategically unimportant neighborhood, just walking distance from where Chemical Weapons inspectors were staying, having just arrived in the country? Why were rescuers and doctors seen in the videos not affected by the residual of the Sarin gas, considering they were not using protective gear?
Why according to MI-5 analysis of the samples, did the substance not match known Syrian Chemical stores? Why did an MIT study show that the tubes recovered could not have delivered the payload the distance the US government accused?
What exactly do you disagree with? Not challenging, and will accept a link if you have written a response already. I often see people say they believe Assad's government is capable of this attack and are guilty, but disregard all questions that put the attack in question.
1) The Attack was never investigated on the ground. There was no corroboration.
2) Reports on the ground do not suggest Sarin use; there was a cloud observed, a smell reported, and rescuers could be seen operating without required protective gear, all of which points to it not being Sarin.
3) According to Reuters, Russia had informed the United States in advance that there would be a bombing in this town.
4) It's not a practical use of the weapon, to small an attack over to wide an area to be really effective.
5) A United Nations team had certified that the Assad regime had surrendered all chemical weapons.
I also challenge the assertion that the Assad regime has been performing small attacks. They have been accused of performing small attacks using chlorine, but nothing has been proved, and again most of the accusations never made any sense. The public was just led to believe that Syrians are evil, and so would use a very ineffective weapon, that would cause more international condemnation than any tactical gain could hope to recoup.
So, I'm wondering why you believe the Assad regime would make such an obvious strategic blunder for little to no tactical gain?
Assad would not be insane to launch chem attacks. He has been doing small ones here an there all along when his troops got in trouble. It is strategic and makes perfect sense (however morally vile and illegal it is) for a small army trying to level the playing field. Saddam did it at the Iranian front. Also in that war, there were regime apologists who tried to blame Iran itself, which is ridiculous. I'm not saying you are an apologist; but there are Baath apologists being paid to muddy the waters and you are falling for fake news. All of the chem attacks in Syria have occurred in rebel-held territory. Are they gassing themselves? The people giving them shelter? It is ridiculous. Plus they don't have the technical expertise to do it, whereas the regime is known to retain stockpiles.
In Syria the US is losing a war(again), this time to Iran (again), therefore the panic to do something with bombs and rockets on innocents. The neocon press loved the last performance and would do so again.
Thank you for the response. It appears I along with other readers disagree with you on this topic. Assad would be insane to launch a chemical attack while his forces are winning on almost all fronts. He may be a brutal dictator but certainly not mad. I am uncomfortable with the idea that we are expanding into another war zone under false pretenses. Also my apology for misspelling Mr. Hersh last name in my earlier post. Juan, thank you for the opportunity to voice my opinion on your blog. Enjoy your perspective on all topics.
"As for the substance, it is true that the Syrian Arab Army sometimes uses chemical weapons on the battlefield. As I understand it, many units of the army have chem auxiliaries for those instances where they might be overrun by the enemy." I thought I had faithfully read all your posts for the last 2 years, I do not remember the source for the existence of these "Chem auxiliaries", any photos, references? Wikipedia says Al Nursa"In December 2012, the chemical plant SYSACCO 29 kilometers (18 mi) east of Aleppo was taken by rebel fighters from the Al-Nusra Front. The factory produces chlorine among other chemicals.[11] On 5 November 2014, the Syrian UN-ambassador Bashar al-Jaafari, said "terrorist organizations stole about 200 tons of [chlorine gas] from" the factory.
The provenance of the warning about an imminent Syria gas attack is obviously shady. Supposedly it came from within the White House. That suggests neo-fascist Sebastian Gorka, perhaps aided by crackpot neocon ideologue Ezra Cohen-Watnick.
(Remember when Paul Wolfowitz and Douglas Feith were ‘stovepiping’ bogus WMD tales to justify the invasion of Iraq?)
Juan, what do you make of Sy Hersch's piece claiming the administration knew the Assad government had nothing to do with the chemical release that prompted the tomahawk missile attack?
They have no morals. The entire bunch are like pigs wallowing in their own excrement, pushing each other to get at the garbage they want to eat. It is pathetic and disgusting.
It's in response to the Seymour Hersh article that purports that US intelligence knew there was not a chemical attack by the Syrian Air Force. Can't have Trump's signature "Presidential" moment marred by the fact that Syria didn't drop chemical weapons, and the intelligence shown to him confirmed this.
The war could be over in just a few months' time. The US will not allow it to end. Our foreign policy establishment has decided if it can't have absolute control, it will create absolute chaos.
Netanyahu reportedly told Trump an Iranian presence in Syria is not acceptable to Israel which means US policy will continue to support the anti Assad forces.
Even to a novice like myself Haley's comment sounds like an open invitation for US backed militias to undertake a false flag operation.
Quote: "Unless foreign powers withdraw, Syria is in danger of being permanently partitioned along lines dictated by outside powers."
*
There are precedents for this. In 1916 the Sykes-Picot agreement was made (secretly) between Great Britain and France, and was subsequently used at Versailles to partition land which became Jordan, Syria, Palestine, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. I wonder -- is there is a similar (secret) partition arrangement in place today?
To the world at present America is symbol of 'nothing' ..it will go it seems where its president tells it to go. Checks and Balances I was taught in high school civics insured no president could really over ride the majority - where are they; where is the follow-up on Trumps conflict of interests re his many investments; who is the president working for; the country or his personal interests. He does not seem to know ally from enemy or the 'big picture'. Quick to destroy or under- or non-fund institutions that are relied upon in America as well as abroad. Politics in the past were merky enough to allow some very shady dealing at times, now they in a certain way are very very transparent and what we now can observe is not an encouraging picture of now or where we are heading, from environment to even wanting peace. Endless wars, labeling too many things terrorist attacks when basically they are crimes within america, done by americans. conscience seems to be unknown to its president who is in the eyes of the free world a bigot and that is mildly put. The last decision of the supreme court makes it as an institution that does not seems good at games as it can manipulate the rules it knows so well without taking a stand clearly. Qatar with its excellent news broad casting and analysis of world news, naturally interests wanted it shut down and now with the backing of the United States which is a shame for it gave American viewers another possibity of getting the 'new' they needed to know about to make responsible decisions. At least to the general public it has become increasingly transparent that behind what was considered by many of the down trodden, the poor etc. America is not the place to put their personal hopes or their hopes for the world. I met hiking in south africa a trio of college students, one black, and his remark to me was - hope i do not have any trouble getting back in. My family went to America in 1638, brought the printing press, fought and in some cases died in every war America fought to defend itself.
The wars America now continually fights have nothing to do with that. The frustrations of a soldier while involved and upon return to even understand what his doings have been a part of. Wake up you once were a power for good for many peoples in this world. May be this is the way all great nations go in their deterioration but America is not old, but it is fast and it forgets too easily, remembers what is agreeable, allows itself to be manipulated and now due to its great arsenal is extremely threatening . Perhaps America , since it seems to beable to change itself almost overnight, could use that quality and surprise the world in how fast it can get back some of its credability. the world once needed to know you were there, now they worry that you are there. One big worry seems to be you are on the way to being a one party country with a dictator who scorns all basic values that did make America great. What is the American population comprised of if not people who for a longer or shorter time setteled in America from somewhere else and now the fear of 'someplace else' or a person recently from 'someplace else' puts them in a panic that reverses what has always been a strength and resource for America ; the input of talents, ideas, skills America needs and wants or wanted. Walls have never worked, common knowledge, fairly recent example is the wall between East and West Germany or the problems in Isreal due to 'walls' yet your president wishes a wall between its neighbor Mexico and probably he would like one between Canada and the United States or perhaps the United States should just annex it, as it seems to be doing so well. For your president anything and everything is allowed if it makes him appear great, flatters him, builds up his ego, blocks his basic insecurity, and gives him the feeling he needs of being in control.
This announcement by Trump this morning is frankly farcical! Clearly, this is just a precursor to another missile attack on Assad's assets because he is gradually getting his country back which is starting to annoy the American military. The worst thing about this ludicrous announcement is that our own defense minister in the UK, that old fool Michael Fallon, has said on the radio this morning that he will support anything America does, even without knowing any of the facts or having any evidence whatsoever. No wonder we British are being targeted by terrorists!!
americans do not sem to know what they want so they are led by their president whose the ideology of money, profit, has or is blinding them to any other values. imagine the mother who learns of her son's death on the battlefield and does not even know which one. america is going so fast downhill and the world looks at it in shock. americans seem to have no moral sense, do not desire peace through negotiations. consent agression, blood shed those seem to be their way of communicating and showing how primitive is their basic culture.
Don't the Trumpies realise that anything they utter/tweet these days makes Assad himself look like truth incarnate to the real world? Guess not. They are still living the neocon dream of making their own truths like god.
Peter & the Wolf & all that... link to theguardian.com
"Three-quarters of world has little or no confidence in Trump, Pew study finds"
& it also points out the US itself as a good in the world is dropping drastically in world estimation. Even Canada!
You guys don't have time for the "mills of god"...
The Russians already have S-300 and S-400 missiles in place around Syria and this is sufficient to cover much of the country. More of them would be superfluous.
Then there is the point that the Russians haven't used the existing missiles to stop egregious US and Israeli attacks against Assad's forces. That is, the missiles are utterly useless without the political will to employ them.
Putin's bluff has been well and truly called.
Half baked military engagement is ALWAYS a loser action.
If the locals are not willing to die for their side then there is nothing the USA can do to change the situation and should just accept the situation and leave.
All indications are the Taliban are more mentally into the fight than the Afghan army, so no matter how many "advisors" (actually mercenaries) the USA dumps into the country, the situation will not get any better.
If the USA wants to defeat the Taliban, they will have to put several hundred thousand USA troops on the ground to die in large numbers until all the population is dead or subjugated. The it will have to install a puppet government and protect the (fake) government with several hundred thousands troops forever at great expense to the USA taxpayers and cannon fodder "donor" families.
The USA can NOT do anything in Afghanistan that has not already been tried by the loser Brits (THREE TIMES) or the loser Soviets, or any of the losers that have attacked Afghanistan over the last several thousand years and went away defeated.
The USA has LOST in Afghanistan and we should just admit it and walk away from a losing action. There is NO WAY the USA can "win" in any sense of the word in Afghanistan.
Iran does NOT want war with the USA, BUT they will not be pushed around by the USA and Russia will be glad to help them if the USA attacks.
Iran will try to send diplomatic signals for the USA to back off, but trump is too stupid to understand and he has decimated the state department so there are few left that can even shout at him to stop, even though he will not listen.
Iran will probably NOT make an first strikes but will react very forcibly when attacked.
The real problem is trump has a "divine right king" mentality and he will do what he wants regardless what is actually best for the USA. Trump is all ego and no thought, similar to a certain German ruler that made lots of mistakes due to ego during the 1930s and 1940s.
Truth can't be surpressed, it is a pressure cooker waiting to explode. Even placing a ban on teaching evolution theory is a victory for Science. New generations are socially and politically aware, they are not as naive as the older generation. The future is theirs and Science shapes our future today.
Dr. Cole, I think you are right to knock down all the Russian speculations, but I would suggest one thing that would contribute to the analysis: it seems apparent that it's no use any more talking about "the United States" in terms of policy. The Russians are making a huge mistake when they try to identify what US policy actually is, because there isn't one. There are many.
There are now at least five sources of policy: the White House, State, the Pentagon, the CIA, and the units in the field.
For example, it seems that the shoot-down of the Syrian aircraft a few weeks ago was not the first four, but was instead a decision by the local American commander in the area, without consultation. It was not "US policy", but the policy of that commander, that was exercised in that instance.
It's currently the policy of the Pentagon to work through the Kurds. But there's every reason to believe that the CIA is still supplying assistance to Al Nusra.
And we've seen the still unresolved loggerheads between Pentagon and State on one side, and the White House on the other with respect to Qatar.
There is no "United States" any more with respect to foreign policy. There are competing servants of Trump, because that's the way he runs his businesses. He puts his employees at each other's throats, because that's the way he likes it.
Not United at all.
It's a rewrite of the "Comey Tapes Saga" for Fox TV.
After Libya went bad, the US position has been that Assad should go but that the Syrian government should not be overthrown. Under Trump it isn't even clear that the position is any longer that Assad must go.
The idea that the US is trying to install al-Qaeda in Damascus is looney toons.
The Trump EPA budget "zeros" the EnergyStar Program because POTUS Petty Vindictive hates the program, 11 of 14 of Trump's hotels fail to comply with the standard. On a scale of 1 to 100, a Park Avenue complex owned by Trump that was formerly the Mayflower Hotel rated 1 point.
Someone needs to tell Trump that the EnergyStar Program was not an Obama initiative but a Poppy Bush program.
link to usatoday.com
My brother had asked his Pakistani colleagues at a party, most of whom are doctors by profession and in the US, whether they believed in evolution. Almost all did not. Considering some of their positions included research he wondered how they could dismiss it when their profession was built on and depended on that knowledge.
Not surprisingly a lot of Pakistanis seem to support this anti-science initiative by Turkey, besides their support for Erdogan, whose like their new Islamic Sultan that's going to bring back glory to the Muslim world for them somehow.
I remember the Turkish Harun Yahya (otherwise known as Adnan Oktar) character who seemed to gain popularity amongst Muslim groups years earlier, including in the West, propagating anti-evolution (anti-science) beliefs and promoting an Islamic creationist narrative. Not surprisingly he was picked up by Pakistani TV personality Shahid Masood, which just mainstreamed more religious pseudo-science misinformation. The topic on evolution is now harder to teach or just skipped altogether by some teachers.
That would be a classic sweet lemon rationalization on their part. Not inconsistent with this gang of positive/magical thinkers. The question now is whether the lesson sunk in well enough to repeat.
Was this White House announcement possibly based on some fake news taken from some alt-right website/blog/radio "news" outlet? Donnie Demento does regularly pass along bits of idiocy from these sites. More probable is that Donnie's dementia has reached the stage where he is experiencing delusions, suspicions and paranoia, common symptoms of this malady. How dangerously irrational will he have to become before Pence and Congress pull the plug on this ridiculous situation? Everyone who is enabling this travesty should be ashamed.
This the WH staff attempt to stop Trump from "testing by tweet" , at the request of Donald's private counsel.
The questions I have are would the Russians allow Iran to go the way of Syria? Can the Iranians do enough damage to US interests to convince Trump to back off?
Representatives of the USG have stated "Assad must go" to many times to count. The US desire for regime change is documented over a span of at least a decade if not further. The various USG connected think tanks have issued many "white papers" setting forth destabilization and partition plans. Trump and his administration insiders are totally obsessed with Iran. The hatred is palpable.
Given those facts, assuming this move is not some sort of plan to advance regime change is really naive.
Moreover, if in fact the intel does not support the claim, it is extremely immoral. The opposition, including ISIS, are clearly losing on the ground. Staging an incident to provoke a large US attack on government forces is their only hope for deposing Assad. Saudi Arabia and UAE hate Assad even more than Trump. They are currently engaging in genocide in Yemen. They are clearly capable of staging a false flag operation, and only a complete idiot would think they would not do so for moral reasons. A false claim such as this can only be seen as an invitation to stage a false flag event. Assad is an official US propaganda target. Our "media" would merrily go along while cheering enthusiastically.
Yes, the Kurds can carve out their own enclave without a false flag attack, and I don't think they have any real incentive to do so. But would that really satisfy the regime change advocates? I doubt if the Kurds are really interested in holding on to Sunni areas anyway. Does the USG really trust the Kurds not to cut a deal with Assad?
Unfortunately Americans will pay a very high price, both individually and as a country.
The possible opponents are all capable of brutally punishing the USA military if not winning outright.
The costs will be many Americans dead and economic bankruptcy.
Iran has been preparing very carefully for USA invasion for over 35 years and they are prepared to brutally punish the USA if not drive it back to the USA in defeat. Iran has carefully studied USA tactics and has developed counter-tactics. Iran has carefully studied USA weapons and has developed very effective counter-weapons. Basically Iran has the capability to severely wound the USA even if no one else helps, BUT both Russia and China have publicly said the y would help Iran.
If the USA pushes too hard in Syria, the USA will find itself in a war with Russia and Iran which it will lose badly after paying very high costs.
The bottom line is if the USA starts a war, either deliberately or by stupid accident, it will permanently damage itself and its economy and most Americans (the 99%) will have much worse lives.
FYI - the USA does not have the manpower to fight a war without drafting millions of Americans. in the REAL WORLD technology can not replace humans when it comes to war - armies still need cannon fodder. I wonder how Americans will like that?
The simple REALITY is due to technology, the earth now has a huge excess of workers.
That is, **ALL** the goods and services needed or wanted by the 7.5 billion humans on earth can easily be provided by about 4 billion humans and that number is decreasing by the day as technology eliminates the need for humans in most activities.
So, in the coming decades this will mean that less and less humans will be able to find jobs. It appears that there will soon be 25 humans competing for every available job on earth and the ones with the best trained brains will be the ones that succeed.
Basically what is happening is religious based education which ignores REALITY in favor of the myth, will end up handicapping young adults who will not have a good background in the sciences and math.
Of course the students that understand how their education is handicapping them just may rebel and in the end reject religion.
Anti-intellectualism will not succeed in the end, especially in a world where the entire earth's knowledge is available to most people 24/7/365 and censoring the Internet is an extremely complex and mostly losing proposition. Nations that over censor the Internet, will lose out in the global economy.
What puzzles me is why parents would doom their kids to a miserable existence rather than want them to get well educated so they can succeed in a future world. All to protect some myths.
Note that the new base will be ringed by S-300 systems because Russia is rapidly replacing all their S-300 systems with S-400 systems resulting in lots of surplus S-300 systems.
Having a Russian base near Damascus will complicate USA regime change attempts.
It is long past time for the USA to just accept Assad and quit trying to play the grand master in a losing game.
"The US has more high-tech weapons than others, but those haven’t done it much good; it hasn’t won a war since 1945."
I don’t think winning is the point. Winning shuts down the perpetual motion money machine. Otherwise what economy is there left besides paper pushing on Wall Street?
link to atimes.com
I had that thought a few days ago. Sigh.
Blunder is his middle name.
It is extremely unfortunate that science is sacrificed at the altar of power struggle. Who would have imagined that Turkey a secular country would take 180 degree turn simply to hoodwink its people in the name of religion. Our country Pakistan also underwent the same frenzy and now it has become a violent place where terrorism of all hue and cry has found a safe haven in. Polarizing a country is the biggest sin a leader can possibly commit and Erdogan is well on his away to accomplish this abominable task.
This represents another step in Turkey's turn toward the [Mid]East and away from Europe under Erdoğan's leadership. His neo-Ottoman vision conjures the glories of Mehmet and Süleyman, but more likely will be a Neo-Hamidian return of "The Sick Man."
Sultan Recep Tayyip Çok Yaşa!
this is why you dont play around with lying about war. once you start the fog of war gets thick at foggy bottom. cities are leveled and society is traumatized.
assuming that this is not your goal.
and people consider this clown the leader of the free world? right he's a clown. each night a lot of us in North America wait for Stephen corbet, Trevor Noah, and Seth Myers to do their monologues skewering Trump for all the stupid things he says and does each day. When you think of it this man keeps a min. of 3 comedians/political satirists busy 4 to 5 nights a week and the rest of us in stiches laughing.
Every day its another stupid comment by Trump and his political allies. Much of it defies logic if not common sense. They're jokes.
this evening Stephen Corbett ran a series of announcements by trump saying there were big plans and in a couple of weeks they would be announced. well nothing ever gets announced. His latest pronouncement was regarding health care, there will be a "big surprise" in a couple of weeks. Right just like all the other announcements. The man only knows how to sit at a small desk have people standing around him while he signs pieces of paper which actually don't have any real meaning in law.
so if the clown prince of the U.S.A. is now making statements regarding bombs in Syria, he might want to offer proof because not many are going to believe him. He is just deflecting because his health care bill is going no where. If the American generals don't know about any Syrian bomb, who knows perhaps Trump's good friend Putin told him or the tooth fairy. Trump in my opinion is an idiot and may be suffering from early onset of dementia. he sure acts like it and his forgetful ness of previous messages, well............
The key to all this could well lie in the ...that the late-Monday White House announcement had already deterred Syria from use of poison gas since Trump's main purpose seems to be to bolster support among the faithful. All he has to do now you see is conjure a danger, make a threat and, voila, even the demon Assad is cowed. Meanwhile he gains his popularity boost without upsetting any apple carts, adds an element of lustre to US Intel, and saves 60 million smackeroonies. Not bad for an evening's work.
The White House announcement was a lame attempt to counter the Seymour Hersh article debunking the putative April gas attack. I'd suggest the WH thought the article would get wider circulation than it did.
By suppressing the Hersh article the media (and certain academics) have unwittingly done Trump a service.
Releasing "hard evidence" prematurely weakens a case making such evidence inadmissible.
Defending the mistake made in November is a "fool's errand."
Thanks for clearing the mud from the situation, even though unfortunately what remains is the core confusion and idiot's bullying at the heart of the Trump maladministration.
I assume that anything coming out of the Oval Office, and that means Bannon, Miller and Kushner also, is intended to 1) intimidate, 2) mislead, and 3) ultimately pave the way for unilateral right-wing Israeli government's triumph. The underlying thinking is going to be dangerously - insanely - wrongheaded and counterproductive to even their own goals. But that of course doesn't prevent it from happening.
"In any case, the British were duped by Bush into a long national nightmare."
It was Blair who sold the lie. He is much more culpable than Bush, because he has a brain and knows how to use it. He should have known better.
Putin could make a deal anytime with Merkel. She is the one holding the cards.
Sharon, as a WWII baby who grew up (elsewhere) admiring the US I think your opinion here is absolutely profound.
You've covered the field well.
Even with fracking, it is unlikely that petroleum could meet world demand in 2050 if there were not EVs or renewables. Since there are, we won't ever find out.
Try diagramming your submission. You have not said anything, but have implied some propaganda. I would not normally even bother with it but it is a reply.
Two wrongs don't make a right.
Assad provoked the Civil War to stay in power and is one of the great monsters of the young twenty-first century.
Ok, that's a point. But so is the fact that the UN has vetoes & often equally not legit. How come Saudi Arabia is there? Wanting to chair Human Rights I read !!!!
If we go back to the early days of the rebellions, with all the diversity of groups vying for supremecy, what's the bet Assad, who protects diverse groups himself (do the "virtuous" GoP not care about the the Xtns there?) would have won on a Winner Take All system?
Decomcracy is itself diverse; lots of people in the world don't think Trump is legitimately elected seeing he didn't win a majority vote. Or have to form a coalition as happens elsewhere.
It is absolutely not true that 17 intelligence agencies endorsed the Russia hacking dossier. In fact it was four, and their "assessment" (ie, opinion piece) was written by "hand picked" analysts, according to the DNI. To date, their hasn't been any hard evidence released to substantiate the charge.
After I wrote this I realized that the phrase "our values of freedom and democracy" is not valid anymore. I'm not ;sure we have either in our own country right now. What i meant was our traditional foreign policy values of promoting freedom and democracy, which of course often gave way to power politics and supporting anti-communist dictatorships.
Don't forget Grenada!
100% green energy is NOT possible if the fossil fuel gangs have friends like The Donald!!
Yes, the initial US response to the earlier episode also stunk.
What I've noticed is how hamstrung US politicians are by the emotional PR optics of such weapons.
It would be easy, and irresistible, not to try a false-flag with a target so big, powerful, and demonstrably gullible.
Obama may have even suspected something amiss. His red line "promise", was merely that such an attack would "change the calculus", not that it'd trigger any particular action. He hardly hesitated to grab for that Russian lifeline. Later, note how he described that act of resisting political pressure as one of his proudest moments.
Trump's knee, in this case was clearly flailing. We need to expect more fishy "provocations" along these lines.
1. Syria is not at the center of the main petroleum fields (Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia).
2. Syria has no access or border to the Red Sea.
3. This is doubly true of Suez.
I'm also curious about why the US requires a change of government (the current government is freely elected so the catchphrase of "regime change" does not apply) in Syria.
B at MoonofAlabama.org has published some interesting ruminations on Trump's strange gas attack warning: White House Says It Will Fake "Chemical Weapon Attack" In Syria.
Questioning this is not like drinking JFK conspiracy kool-aid. The many details support Hersch's version.
There are two scenarios to weigh: what happened in Syria and what then happened in Washington.
Whatever else Asad may have done helps establish his own pattern of behavior, but it doesn't seem ton fit the circumstances of this case.
Israeli influence, to at least shape US Syria policy so as not to inconvenience.
Not the same as really needing to be there....
Hey, no fair! We kicked Grenada's butt! USA! USA! USA!!
Also Panama. And we punched Serbia real good, since they couldn't hit back.
We are the Number One Tough Guys at picking on smaller, weaker nations that can't fight back! (Guerrilla war is cheating! Those big cheaters!!! )
USA! USA! USA!!
hahaha!!
Colonial wars don't count.
The Gulf War was repeated. D'ya really think it was a war that could be called a victory?
Kosovo involved European allies.
Is there even enough oil left to enable a sustained economic recovery?
Just before the blowout in 08 cheap gasoline was $4.29 in my area. Bouncing around 5 bucks other places.
That was a huge hit on truckers, landscapers, construction and others who used a lot of liquid fuel. Fuel costs drive material costs, along with supply. Everything used to build a house went way up. Copper wire went from 45 to 145 for 250' of 12/2. Lumber went up what, 50%? Strangely production of hand drive nails moved to China and prices more than doubled for 1# of nails.
08 was a combination of bad stuff not just the bank fraud. Because of demand prices became unsustainable.
Even without the fraud oil prices would have eventually crashed the economy.
I think there's not enough oil to rebuild the economy so green is essential if this is going to ever happen.
Any resource if demand outstrips production by even a tiny bit, prices will skyrocket. It's a natural limit on growth.
Cheers
Prior and on-going global deforestation, prior and on-going irresponsible use of fossil-fuels and the toxic waste have likely already sealed our fate as a bountiful planet continuing into the next Century.
"An oilman knows the world like others don't."
Condi Rice
Great write up on energy and transportation trends. I hope that BICYCLES along with mass transit and electric vehicles are the future of transportation. I work commute mostly by bicycle and mass transit (Metro Trains in LA) and drive a Prius once in a while.
Now that the pathological liar-in-chief denier acknowledges there was in-fact Russian interference in his election. What will he do about it? So far, in the name of defending our country against this continuing threat:
• Blame it all on Obama.
• Eliminate those investigating Russia from authority.
• Officially mock those concerned over the Russian "attack" on our national elections.
• Make broad unsubstantiated counter-attacks on media intent tacitly on behalf of Russia.
• Takes no action against Putin or Russians responsible.
Under Trump will we see the TU-95 Bear over Texas?
U.S. intelligence agencies – 17 of them – agree that evidence shows the Russian government hacked the Democratic National Committee and waged a campaign to influence voters in 2016.
This is not actually true. It's a "fact" that gets tossed out but is no truer today than it was when Hillary Clinton made the statement during a debate last Fall. When Hillary made the statement the number of agencies/offices that had "signed" off on this idea was two. Since then that number has increased to three. Far cry from the seventeen that gets bandied about with no factual basis. Even the number three is circumspect in that a large portion of the report had nothing to do with cyber espionage, but supposed biased coverage of RT and Sputnik, and there is little actual evidence, but just conclusions by analysts.
The analysts could be correct, but there's almost no real evidence. The FBI never was granted access to the server that was hacked. The code that CrowdStrike claims to have discovered is over five years old, and available to hackers, so not definitive proof of Russian government hacking. The CIA report had even less physical evidence, its conclusions solely based on analysts interpretations, yet this is treated like hard evidence.
I'm not sure which gas attack you are referring to, but the original one was extensively investigated and Human Rights Watch had people there on the ground within a day or two. Here's a report that summarizes the UN report.link to bbc.com
Petroleum, Red Sea, Suez
The Syrian government was not elected. Police states often stage spectacles of coerced acclamation they call elections. Syria lost its seat at the UN and is not legitimate.
Republicans and especially neocons are incredibly short sighted. They still think that the US can dominate the world and enforce a Pax Americana. That is foolish nonsense. What the US should be doing is preparing for the day when we are no longer the world's top super power. We should be working to set up an international regime that supports and encourages our values of freedom and democracy. This means fostering alliances and working with and through the UN with like minded powers, the exact opposite of what Trump and the neocons prefer. In such an international system, a positive view of US leadership is crucial for success. Go it alone nationalism is doomed to fail given our current and future international environment.
The 37% of Europeans who think relations with the US will deteriorate is particularly interesting, and it's worth bearing in mind that this view reflects European attitudes to a process that is under way, rather than something that will likely occur at some future time. One strong contributory element here is Russian sanctions. Most Europeans are beginning to feel that the problems of Ukraine require a more nuanced, less punitive approach because the present stand-off is not solving the issue while many European commercial interests are suffering for what is increasingly viewed as a US obsession that has become bogged down and is effecting them more negatively than the US. There is also the issue of the Nord Stream pipeline where again Europeans feel sanctions are an attempt deliberately to hinder progress which would offer cheaper Russian gas in order to promote US LNG exports. The situation is dynamic and not just going to sit there. Kites have even been flown suggesting reciprocal sanctions on US LNG exports to Europe.
The American govt. Has 3 separate and distinct power centers. The WH, the Dept formerly known as State ( aka the International Chamber of Commerce), and the MIC. They do speak as one voice, but 3.
Is this another lie (to distract Americans), or did his Trumpness just compromise another intelligence asset?
That was an excellent article from the Iranian perspective..I
have always had trouble visualising the timeline and the fluidity of power in antiquity within the muslim world. That outlined it succinctly in a few paragrauphs.
Anybody get the impression the house of Saud is going after the North Pars gas deposit for reasons stated above?
The ugly American has surfaced. I was recently in Milan and an Italian citizen answered when I said I could not understand how anyone could watch Trump for 10 minutes and want to vote for him "Trump represents what America is". Sadly that is our image now.
I can assure you professor that the English public are every bit as gullible as the American public. We swallowed the lying spew from Tony Blair's mouth about the Iraq war, "hook, line and sinker" Our own members of parliament also fell for the fake stories that Blair and Bush were telling them. In Blair's defense, he did at least ask parliament for a vote which he won. As you rightly point out, Trump was adored when he fired missiles at Syria but treated with disdain when the media have put the story on the back burner. Trump needs another war boost and as it looks like the Syrian government are planning another chemical attack, so he can expect to be popular again any time now.
As far as respect for the president is concerned, the American people treat stupidity as though it were a virtue! When Trump goes off on a bombing spree to Syria he is lauded by the media, congress, the republicans, the democrats and everyone else in the deep state as a hero. Yet when the novelty of the wizz bangs of missiles wears off, its back to mocking the president again. It looks like there is another chemical weapons attack brewing in Syria so Trump will probably bomb the hell out of the Syrian government this time and once again become everyone's darling.
Very sensible viewpoint, Prof. as seen from outside the US where Russia isn't actually demonised these days!
It seems ludicrous to me that anyone can think Putin wants a war with the US - for the reasons you state.
I think Trump is a loathsome toad but the only good idea he had was to end the stand-off with Russia. (The only reason that might be unadvisable is if there is any truth in the idea that the Oil nations are in cosnpiracy to defeat attempts at green energy).
IF Putin personally approved attempts to upset the US election, then Hillary Clinton brought it on herself, living as she seems to in Cold War mode. There's a form of blowback here - threatened people usually try to defend themselves eventually!
The US establishment comes over as a grudge-holder of mammoth proportions. Iran, Russia, poor little Cuba... I'm from NZ where a refusal - at the request of our PEOPLE - to allow nuclear ships in our territory had us shunned considerably for 25 years! Frankly, under recentish & current management I hope you keep on shunning!
I too notice that Putin has international law on his side in Syria - he's there at the request of the elected govt. (even if it is bad) & sounds reasonable in his attitude to matters in the international arena.
But then, the US MIC is bigger than Russia's & has more to lose if peace was to break out, yes?
Thank you very much, again, Juan, for mentioning how
"It appears to me that the wealthy and corporations have for decades deliberately been interfering in the quality of public education, in hopes of producing pliant dupes rather than citizens with a critical faculty. ... The number of Americans who are unable to understand simple principles of science such as that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere produces a greenhouse effect is deeply embarrassing to this country. "
I have been pushing this argument for a long time, and I intend to keep pushing.
As a writer on human history and futures, I want to be an optimist, I personally have to be an optimist to make it through any day. As a worker in a big retail marketplace, even in a hip neighborhood in a progressive West Coast city, the amount of human ignorance, blind self-centeredness, and selfishness I have to deal with every day is not conducive to optimism. Yet there are many nice, smart people too.
>it hasn’t won a war since 1945.
Panama, Early nineties Gulf War , Kosovo?
We need to see the larger danger. The package of technologies used in the Russian project against the 2016 election are probably available to any sizable nation that's willing to make the investment, including the US. That's bad news. Like drones, any new technology that is successfully used to damage rivals (which was the very least that Putin was attempting to do) while evading the definition of "act of war" will be exploited by all great powers. Get out of the mindset of all evil coming from Russia or all evil coming from America. All evil is what you can get away with.
And elections, under these circumstances, may have just been rendered obsolete. The accusations against Russia are that it attempted attacks on the voting machines themselves using a stolen NSA key - which itself proves that this is not just a Russian threat, that it attempted attacks on voter data lists in Democratic districts, and that it manipulated anonymous Internet commenters to alter consensus on who we should vote for. So we don't really know who to vote for, who should be allowed to vote, or who really voted for whom.
And that is what every country is going to try to do to its enemies.
Don't deny the implications of that because you don't want an excuse for renewed hostilities between the US and Russia. Under these conditions, we will all be living in Orwell's world anyway.
The only solution is a strategic election-fraud ban between the major powers. I see no way that can happen when Russia and the US are led by men tied together by an act of election fraud which they refuse to investigate, and the only other major power out there is Communist China.
I am ignorant of much of the history of this area but long ago came to believe that nothing in this area of the world is a national security issue for the U.S. So tell me why we need to be there.
“Persons attempting to find a motive in this narrative will be prosecuted; persons attempting to find a moral in it will be banished; persons attempting to find a plot in it will be shot.”
BY ORDER OF THE AUTHOR
per
G.G., CHIEF OF ORDNANCE
― Mark Twain,
The worship of the past is what holds the Right together. Misrepresenting that past into an absurd cafeteria of self-serving injustices is what keeps its leaders on top. But all these different pasts share the characteristic of inequality, of making "our kind" the masters. Other pasts, like say that of the Amish or the Aboriginies, are conveniently absent.
Gareth Porter in his groundbreaking report showed that the Turkish intelligence provided training and assistance to Nusra in 2013 chemical attack.
It makes my skin crawl to be taking the same side as Erdoğan in this matter; but, as they say, even a stopped clock is right twice a day. As odious as he is, he can't hold a candle to the utterly corrupt despots in Riyadh.
If these crooks were Democrats, Rudy Giuliani and a clown-car full of Fox [so-called] News commentators would be screaming for the Trump/Kushner Crime Family to be prosecuted under RICO.
Sy Hersh isn’t the only one to challenge the assertion that the Syrian government is using chemical weapons. Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS) have raised serious questions about the US narrative. As far as a weak army leveling the playing field, the alleged attack in April that led to Trump’s Cruise missile attack made neither strategic nor tactical sense for the Syrian army. But as a false flag it made eminent sense.
Mr. Cole, what strategic necessity are you currently referring to that the Syrian government would use gas? They are making steady progress. Have been for a while. And on what basis do you assert al nusra doesn't have Chem capability? My understanding was that in 2013 dozens of CIA analysts were in active revolt and would not sign onto an intelligence estimate that claimed, along with kerry, just that. These analysts knew the administrations claims that only the Syrian government was capable of this were false and that al nusra and other groups had, and had probably used chemical weapons already. The UN had also stated before the 2013 ghouta attack that they believed a precious small attack was rebels.
It's strange Richard. We are supposed to just believe Professor Cole about these gas attacks. The American national security institutions have done nothing but prevaricate since at least the Bush years (I didn't follow the foreign policy of the Clinton presidency as closely as the Bush one, the Reagan administration was equally as rotten at its core as Bush II). I don't see any reason we should accept them at their word now, particularly when it goes against all good sense. Opthalmologists (Bassad al-Assad's chosen profession, he moved to politics only after the death of his brother) with nice Western wives are not generally inclined to rash steps or particular cruelty.
From what I can tell, the worst thing Bashar al-Assad did in his life was to allow the CIA to set up dark sites in Syria at the time of the second Iraq war. Current American treatment is a peculiar way to pay back your friends.
The only logical explanation is that Israel is driving the Syria policy, as Israel has publicly announced several times that their principal interest in Syria is extending the civil war as long as possible (2013) and that Israel has been providing medical services and material support to ISIL in Syria.
What is very curious about Professor Cole's antipathy for Bashar al-Assad and the Syrian government is that he is usually one of the most balanced commentators in the American blogosphere on the Israel-Palestinian issue.
"Also in that war, there were regime apologists who tried to blame Iran itself, which is ridiculous."
Yep, apologists like . . . the U.S. State Department, the CIA and the DIA, because of course Saddam was our boy back then and Iran was doubleplusungood.
The U.S. intelligence community will inevitably blame chemical attacks on whomever the current official enemy happens to be.
If their bosses wanted to blame the Pygmies of central Africa I'm sure they could whip something up.
Not that I expect this comment to be published since the intel community is anti-Trump and therefore now can do no wrong . . .
Actually no, the small attacks since 2013 were all chlorine. The only time Sarin was suggested as a weapon was the 2013 attack, which again had many more questions than people want to answer.
Like, why would Syrian forces use Chemical weapons on a strategically unimportant neighborhood, just walking distance from where Chemical Weapons inspectors were staying, having just arrived in the country? Why were rescuers and doctors seen in the videos not affected by the residual of the Sarin gas, considering they were not using protective gear?
Why according to MI-5 analysis of the samples, did the substance not match known Syrian Chemical stores? Why did an MIT study show that the tubes recovered could not have delivered the payload the distance the US government accused?
What exactly do you disagree with? Not challenging, and will accept a link if you have written a response already. I often see people say they believe Assad's government is capable of this attack and are guilty, but disregard all questions that put the attack in question.
1) The Attack was never investigated on the ground. There was no corroboration.
2) Reports on the ground do not suggest Sarin use; there was a cloud observed, a smell reported, and rescuers could be seen operating without required protective gear, all of which points to it not being Sarin.
3) According to Reuters, Russia had informed the United States in advance that there would be a bombing in this town.
4) It's not a practical use of the weapon, to small an attack over to wide an area to be really effective.
5) A United Nations team had certified that the Assad regime had surrendered all chemical weapons.
I also challenge the assertion that the Assad regime has been performing small attacks. They have been accused of performing small attacks using chlorine, but nothing has been proved, and again most of the accusations never made any sense. The public was just led to believe that Syrians are evil, and so would use a very ineffective weapon, that would cause more international condemnation than any tactical gain could hope to recoup.
So, I'm wondering why you believe the Assad regime would make such an obvious strategic blunder for little to no tactical gain?
Nusra doesn't know how to run the factory and the gas attacks have been sarin, not chlorine.
Assad would not be insane to launch chem attacks. He has been doing small ones here an there all along when his troops got in trouble. It is strategic and makes perfect sense (however morally vile and illegal it is) for a small army trying to level the playing field. Saddam did it at the Iranian front. Also in that war, there were regime apologists who tried to blame Iran itself, which is ridiculous. I'm not saying you are an apologist; but there are Baath apologists being paid to muddy the waters and you are falling for fake news. All of the chem attacks in Syria have occurred in rebel-held territory. Are they gassing themselves? The people giving them shelter? It is ridiculous. Plus they don't have the technical expertise to do it, whereas the regime is known to retain stockpiles.
In Syria the US is losing a war(again), this time to Iran (again), therefore the panic to do something with bombs and rockets on innocents. The neocon press loved the last performance and would do so again.
Thank you for the response. It appears I along with other readers disagree with you on this topic. Assad would be insane to launch a chemical attack while his forces are winning on almost all fronts. He may be a brutal dictator but certainly not mad. I am uncomfortable with the idea that we are expanding into another war zone under false pretenses. Also my apology for misspelling Mr. Hersh last name in my earlier post. Juan, thank you for the opportunity to voice my opinion on your blog. Enjoy your perspective on all topics.
"As for the substance, it is true that the Syrian Arab Army sometimes uses chemical weapons on the battlefield. As I understand it, many units of the army have chem auxiliaries for those instances where they might be overrun by the enemy." I thought I had faithfully read all your posts for the last 2 years, I do not remember the source for the existence of these "Chem auxiliaries", any photos, references? Wikipedia says Al Nursa"In December 2012, the chemical plant SYSACCO 29 kilometers (18 mi) east of Aleppo was taken by rebel fighters from the Al-Nusra Front. The factory produces chlorine among other chemicals.[11] On 5 November 2014, the Syrian UN-ambassador Bashar al-Jaafari, said "terrorist organizations stole about 200 tons of [chlorine gas] from" the factory.
The provenance of the warning about an imminent Syria gas attack is obviously shady. Supposedly it came from within the White House. That suggests neo-fascist Sebastian Gorka, perhaps aided by crackpot neocon ideologue Ezra Cohen-Watnick.
(Remember when Paul Wolfowitz and Douglas Feith were ‘stovepiping’ bogus WMD tales to justify the invasion of Iraq?)
It's like the Right hand doesn't know what the Far Right hand is up to. Or doesn't care...
I put solar panels on my house and ran my EV off them. All non carbon.
Am a huge fan of Sy Hersh; on this we disagree. I have given my reasons several times.
Juan, what do you make of Sy Hersch's piece claiming the administration knew the Assad government had nothing to do with the chemical release that prompted the tomahawk missile attack?
They are grifters.
They have no morals. The entire bunch are like pigs wallowing in their own excrement, pushing each other to get at the garbage they want to eat. It is pathetic and disgusting.
It's in response to the Seymour Hersh article that purports that US intelligence knew there was not a chemical attack by the Syrian Air Force. Can't have Trump's signature "Presidential" moment marred by the fact that Syria didn't drop chemical weapons, and the intelligence shown to him confirmed this.
The war could be over in just a few months' time. The US will not allow it to end. Our foreign policy establishment has decided if it can't have absolute control, it will create absolute chaos.
Die Welt posted an interesting article on the previous alleged gas attack.
link to welt.de
The partitioning started 1967 with Israel grabbing a large chunk of Syria.
Netanyahu reportedly told Trump an Iranian presence in Syria is not acceptable to Israel which means US policy will continue to support the anti Assad forces.
Even to a novice like myself Haley's comment sounds like an open invitation for US backed militias to undertake a false flag operation.
Quote: "Unless foreign powers withdraw, Syria is in danger of being permanently partitioned along lines dictated by outside powers."
*
There are precedents for this. In 1916 the Sykes-Picot agreement was made (secretly) between Great Britain and France, and was subsequently used at Versailles to partition land which became Jordan, Syria, Palestine, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. I wonder -- is there is a similar (secret) partition arrangement in place today?
To the world at present America is symbol of 'nothing' ..it will go it seems where its president tells it to go. Checks and Balances I was taught in high school civics insured no president could really over ride the majority - where are they; where is the follow-up on Trumps conflict of interests re his many investments; who is the president working for; the country or his personal interests. He does not seem to know ally from enemy or the 'big picture'. Quick to destroy or under- or non-fund institutions that are relied upon in America as well as abroad. Politics in the past were merky enough to allow some very shady dealing at times, now they in a certain way are very very transparent and what we now can observe is not an encouraging picture of now or where we are heading, from environment to even wanting peace. Endless wars, labeling too many things terrorist attacks when basically they are crimes within america, done by americans. conscience seems to be unknown to its president who is in the eyes of the free world a bigot and that is mildly put. The last decision of the supreme court makes it as an institution that does not seems good at games as it can manipulate the rules it knows so well without taking a stand clearly. Qatar with its excellent news broad casting and analysis of world news, naturally interests wanted it shut down and now with the backing of the United States which is a shame for it gave American viewers another possibity of getting the 'new' they needed to know about to make responsible decisions. At least to the general public it has become increasingly transparent that behind what was considered by many of the down trodden, the poor etc. America is not the place to put their personal hopes or their hopes for the world. I met hiking in south africa a trio of college students, one black, and his remark to me was - hope i do not have any trouble getting back in. My family went to America in 1638, brought the printing press, fought and in some cases died in every war America fought to defend itself.
The wars America now continually fights have nothing to do with that. The frustrations of a soldier while involved and upon return to even understand what his doings have been a part of. Wake up you once were a power for good for many peoples in this world. May be this is the way all great nations go in their deterioration but America is not old, but it is fast and it forgets too easily, remembers what is agreeable, allows itself to be manipulated and now due to its great arsenal is extremely threatening . Perhaps America , since it seems to beable to change itself almost overnight, could use that quality and surprise the world in how fast it can get back some of its credability. the world once needed to know you were there, now they worry that you are there. One big worry seems to be you are on the way to being a one party country with a dictator who scorns all basic values that did make America great. What is the American population comprised of if not people who for a longer or shorter time setteled in America from somewhere else and now the fear of 'someplace else' or a person recently from 'someplace else' puts them in a panic that reverses what has always been a strength and resource for America ; the input of talents, ideas, skills America needs and wants or wanted. Walls have never worked, common knowledge, fairly recent example is the wall between East and West Germany or the problems in Isreal due to 'walls' yet your president wishes a wall between its neighbor Mexico and probably he would like one between Canada and the United States or perhaps the United States should just annex it, as it seems to be doing so well. For your president anything and everything is allowed if it makes him appear great, flatters him, builds up his ego, blocks his basic insecurity, and gives him the feeling he needs of being in control.
This announcement by Trump this morning is frankly farcical! Clearly, this is just a precursor to another missile attack on Assad's assets because he is gradually getting his country back which is starting to annoy the American military. The worst thing about this ludicrous announcement is that our own defense minister in the UK, that old fool Michael Fallon, has said on the radio this morning that he will support anything America does, even without knowing any of the facts or having any evidence whatsoever. No wonder we British are being targeted by terrorists!!
americans do not sem to know what they want so they are led by their president whose the ideology of money, profit, has or is blinding them to any other values. imagine the mother who learns of her son's death on the battlefield and does not even know which one. america is going so fast downhill and the world looks at it in shock. americans seem to have no moral sense, do not desire peace through negotiations. consent agression, blood shed those seem to be their way of communicating and showing how primitive is their basic culture.
Don't the Trumpies realise that anything they utter/tweet these days makes Assad himself look like truth incarnate to the real world? Guess not. They are still living the neocon dream of making their own truths like god.
Peter & the Wolf & all that...
link to theguardian.com
"Three-quarters of world has little or no confidence in Trump, Pew study finds"
& it also points out the US itself as a good in the world is dropping drastically in world estimation. Even Canada!
You guys don't have time for the "mills of god"...