Hopes gas will play the role of a so-called transition fuel towards a low-carbon future are dimming as costs of renewable energy dive and its emissions edge over coal is increasingly questioned, a new report by the Climate Action Tracker argues.
Governments promoting the use of natural gas, especially in the power sector, risk encouraging investments in assets that will become stranded if nations take commitments to the Paris climate pact seriously, it said.
![Gas may not offer much of a transition fuel away from coal afterall.](http://web.archive.org./web/20170623134154im_/https://www.fairfaxstatic.com.au/content/dam/images/g/u/s/z/6/v/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gww2pf.png/1498116577744.jpg)
The analysis comes as the Turnbull government is accused of delaying the release of Australia's quarterly inventory of greenhouse gas emissions. The last release was in December, more than half a year ago.
To meet the Paris goal of keeping global warming to under 2 degrees versus pre-industrial times requires the complete decarbonisation of the world's power sector by 2050, the Climate Action Tracker report said.
![Consumers may ultimately face a sharp rise in the price of gas.](http://web.archive.org./web/20170623134154im_/https://www.fairfaxstatic.com.au/content/dam/images/g/q/d/s/j/j/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gww2pf.png/1498116577744.jpg)
By contrast, the recent review of Australia's energy sector by Chief Scientist Alan Finkel argued for net-zero emissions of the sector – the country's heaviest polluter – only by 2070.
"Betting on growth of natural gas is an unwise move and will lead to a lock-in of expensive infrastructure that will need to be shut down early," said Bill Hare from Climate Analytics, one of the groups behind Climate Action Tracker.
"[Gas] can't have a long-term fundamental role if you are really going to have a zero-carbon emissions power sector in the next 20-30 years," he said.
One issue is that fugitive or migratory emissions from producing gas reduce its advantage over coal as a "cleaner" fuel. Methane has a short-term warming potential of as much as 100 times that of carbon dioxide.
Just as likely to strand gas assets, though, are market forces that are making renewable energy cheaper even if when storage is added to make "dispatchable" when needed. Mr Hare singled out a recent deal in the US state of Arizona where solar and storage prices smashed previous ones.
"AGL has been saying for some time renewables, plus storage, is cheaper than gas in Australia, and that difference will only grow," Mr Hare said. "When you add carbon capture and storage [to sequester emissions], it makes the equation worse for natural gas."
At best, gas offers only "a very short bridge" to renewables, the report said.
The Finkel review largely downplays the role of gas as a bridging fuel for Australia's power sector, noting how soaring exports had pushed its price beyond the level likely to encourage much expansion of its role in electricity generation.
Nevertheless, it noted the best gas-fired power plants were less than half as emissions intensive than even the best coal-fired stations. The review also called for the exploration and development of new fields to be prioritised.
'Censorship'
Separately, the Climate Council has called on the Turnbull government to release Australia's quarterly greenhouse data, now overdue for months.
"At a time when Australia's pollution continues to rise, we are faced with what can only be described as climate censorship," Amanda McKenzie, chief executive of the council, said. "The federal government has consistently withheld vital emissions data. The question needs to be asked: why?"
Fairfax Media sought a response from Josh Frydenberg, the environment and energy minister.
Mark Butler, Labor's climate spokesman, said the government didn't want to own up to emissions rising under their watch.
"In December, the government's own data showed that emissions in 2020 are projected to be 2 per cent above 2000 levels, well short of the bipartisan commitment to reduce emissions by 5 per cent [by then]," Mr Butler said.
"Carbon pollution has risen 6 per cent under this government, after coming down 10 per cent when Labor was last in government," he said. "The government's Direct Action policy has proven to be a complete failure and they have no plans to reduce emissions post 2020."