GA-06: Last month, SurveyUSA released a poll showing Democrat Jon Ossoff with a giant 51-44 lead over Republican Karen Handel in the special election for Georgia’s 6th Congressional District, though at the time we strongly advised caution because other polls at the time had shown a much tighter race. Now SurveyUSA has apparently returned to earth, with a new poll conducted for local news station WXIA that finds Ossoff and Handel tied at 47 apiece. Among those who've already voted—fully 45 percent of the sample—Ossoff has a 57-38 advantage.
This time, though, it may be SurveyUSA who's understating things. The last five polls, and seven of the eight conducted since the April primary, have all found Ossoff ahead. But the range has been quite scattered, with Ossoff up by as little as 1 to as many as 7. The one thing we do know for sure is that Republicans have never released a single poll, and now we're just a week away from the election.
That means, of course, a final flurry of TV ads, and there's a striking contrast between the closing spots from each campaign. Handel, sitting alone at a table in a restaurant, mostly berates Ossoff, whom she says "doesn't live here," "doesn't share our values," and has "raised millions outside of Georgia from Nancy Pelosi and outsiders who just don't share our priorities." Ossoff, however, stays positive, criticizing wasteful government spending and encouraging voters to visit his website to learn about his plans. He doesn't make any reference to Handel whatsoever. Wonder who’s feeling confident.
In a separate ad, Ossoff addresses some attacks leveled against him, and he does so smartly. Rather than repeat his critics’ accusations—a mistake campaigns often make—he simply says, "Let's put this to rest once and for all: I want to see ISIS destroyed." He spends the rest of the spot inveighing against the terror-state with a calmness and gravitas that politicians twice his age often lack.
The GOP, however, remains in permanent attack mode. The NRCC finds a bunch of reg'lar folks (funny, all older white people) to call Ossoff a liar who lacks experience and will be a Pelosi toady. (Once again, someone specifically berates him as "childish," an oddly specific word we've heard in multiple Republican ads. It somehow must have tested well in a focus group.) The Congressional Leadership Fund, by contrast, accuses Ossoff of dodging a debate on CNN, which is amusing because it's Handel who's been AWOL throughout the campaign.
One week!
.jpg)
