If Channel Ten replaces its local news broadcasts with a national bulletin, it won't just shoot itself in the foot. It'll shoot itself in the head.
This phrase was used last week by Tory MP Nigel Evans, summing up the snap election called by British prime minister Theresa May. It's a decision that so recently appeared sensible – yet resulted in chaos.
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Network Ten in trading halt
Broadcaster Network Ten enters a two-day trading halt amid concerns about its financial stability.
Ten would do well to remember this.
As the network enters a two-day trading halt (with key backers refusing to guarantee a $250 million debt renewal) its costs are again under scrutiny. If it fails to finance its loan, it could fall into receivership.
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Management must be tempted, therefore, to take an axe to its news division.
Making bulletins for each major city is expensive. A national service seems an obvious solution.
Such rumours have swept Ten's newsrooms in recent months. Many staff believe a single bulletin – produced by Rupert Murdoch's Sky News – is inevitable.
Exactly how this will look is unclear.
Sydney newsreader Sandra Sully is tipped to host the new program, which could retain the Ten Eyewitness News branding. Sky journalists are expected to provide most, if not all, of the stories. Some staff say local news "windows" might be included. Even so, the number of city-specific reports could be slashed.
Another option for Ten is to retain its state bulletins, while cutting staff and resources. But this would be untenable, sources tell Fairfax Media, given the loss of 100 employees in 2012 and a further 150 in 2014.
The network has been approached for comment.
"There's no fat left to trim," insists one journalist. "We're already at breaking point. It's insane; the amount of unpaid overtime we do."
Naturally, many are worried about their own jobs. But this isn't the only reason they believe a national bulletin is misguided.
So far this year, Ten's local weeknight news has averaged 482,000 city viewers. On Sundays, its national bulletin draws 345,000.
Perhaps there's less interest in commercial news on weekends?
Hardly. Ten's rivals actually increase their audiences on Sundays. It's no coincidence they achieve this with local bulletins.
Nine's Sunday services are averaging 1.06 million viewers this year. Seven does even better, pulling 1.11 million.
Compare this to Nine's weeknight news hour (957,000) and Seven's (991,000).
On Saturdays, Nine averages 767,000, while Seven leads with 809,000. Ten, in contrast, slumps to 308,000.
One could argue that Ten has younger viewers, who are are more likely to go out on weekends. Yet sources say Eyewitness News attracts an older demographic.
It's hard to escape the conclusion that Australians want local news – and at least some who watch Ten on weeknights prefer Seven or Nine on weekends.
"We already know what will happen if we go national: our ratings will plummet," one insider told me in May. "The most frustrating thing is that Seven and Nine actually compete on local news. And they're rewarded with consistently high ratings."
Maybe Ten will cop lower ratings if it can cut costs by going national. But the damage might not be limited to the 5pm news hour.
The Project relies heavily on Ten's news team. Drastic cuts could affect its access to footage.
And despite Eyewitness News rating lower than its rivals, it is frequently one of Ten's top programs. Anything that diminishes its audience could have a flow-on effect, reducing Ten's prime time ratings.
Not to mention that Eyewitness News currently has a loyal viewership, to whom Ten can promote its other shows.
One reason Seven is topping the ratings this year is that it already has a reliably large audience. If you launch a new show on the back of My Kitchen Rules, you're halfway to decent ratings. Launch the same program on Ten or SBS, and you have to work harder to achieve the same result. In commercial TV, success begets success – and failure begets failure.
Sources stress that nothing concrete has been announced. It could be some time, they believe, before Ten reveals its plans.
"We can't just cut our way out of trouble," says one reporter. "I hope management remembers this before making any changes to news."
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