Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull may be forced to call an election after just two years of the Coalition's current three-year term, political hardheads believe.
Senior figures in the Liberal and Labor parties confirmed to Fairfax Media on Monday they are working to be "campaign ready" by June or July of next year, with an August or September election firming as the most likely window for the next national poll.
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The problem for Mr Turnbull is a logjam of fixed-date state elections in 2018 and early 2019, and a constitutional requirement for senators who were elected to half-terms at last year's double dissolution election to face voters again.
The Victorian election campaign will run from late October 2018Â up to election day on November 24. South Australia, Tasmania and Queensland are also due to hold elections in 2018.
The 2018-19 Christmas holiday season rules out a federal poll, and NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian will campaign from late February to an election on March 23, 2019.
The latest possible date for a House of Representatives election is November 2, 2019, but the half-term for the Senate expires on June 30, with the latest date for a simultaneous House of Representatives and Senate election being May 18. Given the need for a minimum 33 day campaign, Mr Turnbull and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten would be forced to campaign through Easter and Anzac Day if that date was to be used and that is thought to be unlikely.
Mr Turnbull's office declined to comment, but a senior NSW Liberal involved in campaigns said the crowded schedule meant the party must be on a "war footing" earlier than voters expect.
"My money would be on everything being ready to go in a year from now. You want the option to go early," he said.
Mr Turnbull won the 2016 poll by the slimmest of margins and holds power by just one seat. A slew of opinion polls suggest the Coalition would be swept from office if an election were held right now.Â
A program of "barnacle clearing", including recent announcements on Gonski education funding, the National Disability Insurance Scheme, the Finkel review of the electricity sector and Heath Minister Greg Hunt's efforts to defuse potential dangers for the Coalition in that portfolio have been taken as a sign Mr Turnbull's inner circle were aware of the potential need to go early in 2018.
The Liberal Party is also moving to lock in a new federal director, with former NSW premier Nick Greiner expected to take over presidency of the party from former minister Richard Alston.
A senior Labor source said the "very, very likely window" for the federal election was August to September 2018.
Labor believes Mr Turnbull will not want to risk losing the tactical advantage of picking his date by being forced into the latest possible date and party fundraisers will be worried about "donation fatigue" by corporate Australia after six elections in quick succession around the country if the federal election was called last.
Some industries have been warned to prepare for an early election.
In a story published in pharmaceutical industry newsletter PharmaDispatch last month, former ministerial staffer turned public affairs consultant, Jody Fassina, first flagged the likelihood and laid out the packed electoral schedule.Â
"The most realistic window for the Turnbull government to hold the election is August or September 2018. Stakeholders must begin factoring this reality in to their public affairs and business strategies. Time to revisit and recalibrate those plans for 2018," he wrote.
A Liberal source said another sign the decks were being cleared early would be expected reforms to election funding and a likely move to ban foreign political donations, currently in the spotlight.
The Coalition is also concerned at the rising influence of left-wing activist group GetUp!, which is pouring resources into defeating Immigration Minister Peter Dutton in his Brisbane-based seat of Dickson.
Some in the Coalition want groups like GetUp! to be forced to reveal their donors as one way to potentially curb their financial resources.  Â
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