GA-Gov: On Thursday, state Sen. Michael Williams announced that he was joining the crowded GOP primary to succeed termed-out Republican Georgia Gov. Nathan Deal. Williams, who used to own a barber shop chain, first won his exurban Atlanta seat in 2014 by spending $300,000 of his own money to unseat an incumbent in the primary. Williams says he’ll use a “significant sum” of his fortune on his campaign, and he attacked the GOP-led state government for failing to deliver “basic conservative legislation.”

Williams was the first Georgia elected official to back Donald Trump, and he’s wasted no time pitching himself as the Trumpiest candidate in the land. Even before he announced, Williams took the time to troll one of his primary rivals, state Sen. Hunter Hill, on Twitter, arguing that Hill hadn’t “work[ed] to elect Trump but now you use his name for votes?” Williams followed up by telling the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that Hill was “wrong for a candidate to prey on loyal Trump supporters for their votes based on false pretenses.”

A number of Georgia Republicans have already kicked off their bids. Secretary of State Brian Kemp also launched his campaign by trying to portray himself as Georgia’s Donald Trump. By contrast, the AJC recently noted that Casey Cagle, who has served as lieutenant governor since 2007, did not even mention Trump in his campaign kickoff; Cagle is close to the pre-Trump Republican establishment and business groups. Hill, who represents an affluent Atlanta seat that turned against Trump, hasn’t ignored Trump the same way that Cagle seems to be doing, arguing that Williams “thinks he is the only Georgian allowed to support President Trump.” However, Williams has geared his campaign more towards local issues like his support for school vouchers.

The primary field may get even larger before too long. Ex-Rep. Jack Kingston, who represented a Savanna seat for 22 years before narrowly losing a 2014 Senate primary, has been talking about getting in. Kingston went on to serve as a Trump campaign advisor, and he’s become a pro-Trump talking head on CNN. Nick Ayers, a former head of the Republican Governors Association and a top aide 2016 campaign to Mike Pence, is also reportedly considering, and other Peach State Republicans may also run. If no one takes a majority in the primary, there will be a runoff.

However, while state House Speaker David Ralston didn’t rule out a bid three months ago, he did seem to back away from a possible gubernatorial run in late May. Ralston gave a speech declaring, "I intend for my focus, this year and next, to be where it has always been, and that is on the Georgia House of Representatives and the good people of Georgia that we represent." That’s not a no, but it doesn’t sound like he’s planning to give up his position in the state House for a risky statewide bid.

ME-Gov: Ex-state Republican Party head Rick Bennett, who served as Maine Senate president in the early 2000s, has been considering running for this open seat for a while. Bennett tells the Bangor Daily News that he expects to decide in the early summer. Bennett has been active in Maine politics for decades. He was Team Red’s nominee for a U.S. House seat in 1994, but he lost to future Gov. John Baldacci 46-41. Bennett ran for the U.S. Senate in 2012, but he took third place in the primary with 18 percent of the vote.

MI-Gov: In late April, businessman Shri Thanedar set up a campaign committee to seek the Democratic nomination, but he said nothing publicly about his plans. Thanedar recently spoke to the Detroit News and told them he hasn’t decided whether to run. Thanedar, who was at the high-profile Mackinac Policy Conference, added that some unnamed attendees told him not to get in.

Polling: The New York Times’ Nate Cohn reported back from this year’s convention for the American Association for Public Opinion Research, about how the nation’s pollsters are trying to learn from their mistakes in the 2016 election. His excellent recap finds that pollsters are optimistic about being able to deal with the three main categories of errors that affected their 2016 conclusion: the need to weight for education to make sure that samples don’t contain too many college-educated voters, the problem of late-breaking undecided voters, and the need to refine who fits within likely voter screens.

OH-05: Republican Rep. Bob Latta doesn't appear to have made many enemies in his conservative northwest Ohio seat, but Van Wert County Commissioner Todd Wolfrum has announced that he will challenge him in the primary. Wolfrum, an attorney who writes weekly conservative newspaper columns, argued in his kick off that “conservatives in northwest Ohio and around the country have been largely betrayed by the Republicans we have sent to Washington.” Only about 4 percent’s denizens live in Van Wert County, and Wolfrum will likely need a whole lot of things to go right to have a shot. This seat went from a tough 54-44 Romney to 60-35 Trump.

GA-06: With just over two weeks left until the June 20 runoff in Georgia's 6th Congressional District, we finally have something we've never publicly seen before: a poll with a proper trendline. Republican pollster Landmark Communications has taken a second survey for local news station WSB-TV, and this time they find Democrat Jon Ossoff narrowly edging Republican Karen Handel 49-48; back in early May, Landmark's first poll had Handel up 49-47.

That makes Landmark the only outfit to test the race twice since the April 18 primary, which is helpful because smart analysts know that for a true apples-to-apples comparison, you have to look at two polls conducted by the same pollster using the same methodology. So while the contest remains incredibly tight, Ossoff has to feel good about its direction. Indeed, Landmark's initial poll is so far the only one conducted after the primary to show Handel ahead. Five others have put Ossoff on top, so you really have to wonder whether Republicans have failed to offer up any contradictory polls simply because they don't have any.

Indeed, the worry on the GOP side seems to be escalating. A new "nonprofit" created by several Trump campaign alums called America First Policies says that it's going to spend $1.6 million on new TV ads, adding to the already enormous sums that other Republican groups have poured into this race for months. (The spots are not available yet.) But will this really be the million bucks that turns things around, or has the GOP reached the point of diminishing returns?

AZ-01: Kevin Cavanaugh, a former police officer who briefly served as deputy sheriff of Pinal County, will seek the GOP nomination to face freshman Democrat Tom O’Halleran. The Arizona Daily Star’s Tim Steller says that Cavanaugh briefly ran for Pinal sheriff last year, but he ended up supporting the winning campaign. State Sen. Steve Smith is already running for this northern Arizona district, which narrowly backed both Trump and Romney.

AZ-02: Several Democrats are considering challenging GOP Rep. Martha McSally in this Tucson seat, which flipped from 50-48 Romney to 50-45 Clinton, and the Arizona Daily Star’s Tim Steller adds a new potential contender to the list. Mary Sally Matiella, a CPA who served in the Obama Defense Department as assistant secretary of the Army for financial management and comptroller, says she’s interested. Matiella has the backing of Bill Roe, a longtime local Democratic leader. While Matiella is aware that the GOP would brand her as a D.C. bureaucrat, she does have an interesting backstory. Matiella was born into a family of migrant farmworkers, and she went on to earn a master’s degree in education from the local University of Arizona.

However, ex-Rep. Ron Barber, who narrowly lost to McSally in 2014, has a different potential candidate in mind. Barber is urging Ann Kirkpatrick, who represented the 1st District before unsuccessfully running against Sen. John McCain last year, to get in. Kirkpatrick, who says she’s moved to the 2nd District for family reasons since her defeat, has been considering running. Barber did speak well of Matiella, but said he’s “concerned, as I am in any race, that we find the candidate who has the best chance to win.”

Activism: We're pleased to tell you about a brand new tool for political engagement called Advocate, which boasts longtime friend of Daily Kos Elections Ben Schaffer as an advisor. Advocate is an activism platform that lets individuals track key races either in their own areas or anywhere across the country, and it also allows campaigns (like Jon Ossoff's) to "claim" their pages, Yelp-style, to provide updates to their supporters and offer them opportunities to get involved.

In addition, organizations like Daily Kos can put together slates of candidates they've endorsed, which in turns allows users to drill down and learn more about each campaign and the actions you can take to get them elected. Right now on our page, you'll see Ossoff and Robert Jackson, who's running for the New York State Senate against a "Democratic" incumbent who sides with the GOP, but we'll be adding more candidates as we issue more endorsements throughout the election cycle.

You can sign up here to check it out and start following—and taking action on behalf of—your favorite candidates today.

IA-Gov: Democrat John Norris, a former state party chairman and chief of staff to ex-Gov. Tom Vilsack, is the latest candidate to join the primary for governor in 2018. Norris has never held elective office, although he did narrowly lose a state House race in 1990 and lost 55-43 challenging GOP House Rep. Tom Latham in 2002. However, Norris appears to be very well-connected in Iowa state politics, and he’s reportedly close to former Sen. Tom Harkin’s donor base, meaning he could have some serious fundraising potential. Norris joins an increasingly crowded primary field that includes state Sen. Nate Boulton, state Rep. Todd Prichard, fellow former state party chair Andy McGuire, and several other noteworthy candidates.

IL-Gov: There are still roughly nine months until the March 2018 Democratic primary and 17 months until the general election, but Democratic billionaire investor J.B. Pritzker has released yet another minute-long gubernatorial TV ad, with this one being the first to attack Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner. Pritzker appears on camera in the slickly produced spot to skewer Rauner for forcing a years-long budget crisis that has caused cuts to services combating domestic violence, providing mental health care, supplying senior care, and fighting drug-abuse prevention during the state’s opioid crisis. He closes by arguing Illinois needs someone who will stand firm against Trump.

NM-Gov: Republican pollster the Tarrance Group has released a survey from late May of next year’s open gubernatorial race that shows Democratic Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham leading GOP Rep. Steve Pearce by just 47-43 in a hypothetical general election. Lujan Grisham has been in the race for several months, but Pearce is not a formal candidate, and it’s possible that this survey was released to entice him into the race since it’s unclear who sponsored it. Pearce’s chief of staff had previously said in early May that the congressman would take the “next couple of months” to decide, but local political blogger Joe Monahan has previously reported that he’s not expected to run.

A mere 4-point lead appears to be a rather favorable result for the hardline Pearce given New Mexico’s blue lean and the unpopularity of term-limited GOP Gov. Susana Martinez and Trump. Polling for this race has been sparse, and there’s still a very long time until the general election, so it’s hard to say where the horse race stands right now. However, given the struggles Republicans have been having finding a candidate and Lujan Grisham’s dominant early position in the Democratic primary, party insiders potentially don’t see the quite same picture that Tarrance portrays. Pearce himself previously failed spectacularly by 61-39 in the open 2008 Senate race against Democratic Sen. Tom Udall, so he may be reluctant to give up his strongly conservative southern New Mexico House seat next year for another risky statewide bid.

TN-Gov: On Friday, Tennessee state Sen. Mark Green announced that he would not re-enter the GOP primary for governor. Green had launched a bid at the beginning of the year, but dropped out after Donald Trump nominated him to become secretary of the Army. Green's bid to serve in Trump's administration ran aground over his long history of disparaging remarks about Muslims and LGBT people, and after he pulled his nomination, he considered relaunching his campaign for governor.

However, state Sen. Mae Beavers, a fellow social conservative from Middle Tennessee, entered the race before he made his decision. If Green and Beavers ran, they likely would have been competing for a similar pool of primary voters, and Green acknowledged a few days ago that her campaign may have made it tougher for him to win. Green did not mention Beavers when he announced that he wouldn’t run, but it’s very possible that her decision to run played a part in convincing Green not to get back in the race.

However, we may not have heard the last from Green. His statement said that “[s]everal options exist in the near future to do this and I will continue discussions with people around the state and Washington as I find the best path of service,” which could be a sign that he’s interested in a Senate or House bid.

Meanwhile, another Tennessee Republican may be making a move in the near future. Rep. Diane Black, who is one of the wealthiest members of Congress, has been publicly considering a bid for a while. Black recently told The Hill’s Scott Wong that she’s still deciding on her 2018 plans, but state and national Republicans expect her to run for governor and say she could announce as soon as this summer.

But even if Black has already decided to run, congressional matters could delay her kickoff for a while. Black is chair of the House Budget Committee, and she’s a key player in discussions on tax and spending changes. Party rules would likely force Black to stop down as chair after she announced a bid for governor, something she probably won’t want to do for a while, especially if she thinks she can score some high-profile legislative wins in Congress ahead of a statewide campaign. (It’s possible that Green is interested running for Black’s 6th Congressional District, though his entire Senate seat is in GOP Rep. Marsha Blackburn’s 7th District.)

MI-Sen: Republicans recently landed their first candidate willing to take on Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow in businesswoman Lena Epstein, but evidently, they're still on the hunt for someone better. According to Crain's Detroit Business, a group of "metro Detroit business professionals" are trying to encourage 36-year-old businessman and Iraq War veteran John James to run, and a friend of James' says he's considering, though James himself isn't commenting. James, a first-time candidate, would be the first African-American to represent Michigan in the Senate were he to run and win.

MT-Sen: National Republicans were reportedly hoping that Attorney General Tim Fox would challenge Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, but it sounds like they’re going to need to settle for some disappointment. Politico, citing two unnamed GOP sources, reports that Fox has decided not to run, though Fox has yet to say anything.

According to one D.C. Republican, Senate Republicans have Rep.-elect Greg Gianforte to blame. Gianforte was Team Red’s 2016 nominee against Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock, and he was reportedly interested in a 2020 run to replace Bullock once term limits kicked in. However, Republicans already felt that Gianforte was a weak candidate before he was slapped with a misdemeanor assault charge last week for body slamming a reporter. Fox has been interested in running for governor, but he may have been reluctant to go through a primary with the wealthy Gianforte. But now that Gianforte is looking a whole lot less impressive, Fox’s calculations appear to have changed.

CA-45: EMILY’s List, an influential group dedicated to electing pro-choice Democratic women, endorsed its first House challenger of the cycle on Friday, backing law professor Katie Porter. Porter already had the support of Sen. Kamala Harris, whom Porter worked for when Harris was attorney general, and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Porter is one of three noteworthy Democrats competing to face GOP Rep. Mimi Walters for an Orange County seat that shifted from 55-43 Romney to 50-44 Clinton, and these endorsements could help her raise money and stand out from the rest of the field.

NY-Gov: Although he he hasn’t formally declared his bid for a third term yet, well-funded Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo appears to be in the driver’s seat in this absurdly expensive and decidedly blue state, but a few Republicans are nonetheless interested in possibly challenging him in 2018. Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro had previously been mentioned as a possible candidate, and he confirmed that interest in a Thursday fundraising email by saying he’s “giving serious thought to running.” Meanwhile, it turns out that Syracuse-area state Sen. John DeFrancisco had refused to rule out a campaign back in March.

Republicans have so far struggled to find a challenger against Cuomo, but former hedge fund manager Harry Wilson, who lost the comptroller’s race in 2010, and tea-partying wealthy businessman Carl Paladino, who lost to Cuomo in 2010, have both previously said they’re considering it.

MN-Gov, MN-08: On Friday, Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan announced that he would not join the crowded race for governor of Minnesota. Nolan instead said, “The challenges and consequences of the issues facing our Nation in Washington are too important for me to walk away from at this time,” so it sounds like he’ll seek another term in his competitive Iron Range seat.

Nolan’s decision will likely come as a relief to national Democrats who want to hold the 8th Congressional District. The ancestrally blue rural seat dramatically swung from 52-46 Obama to 54-39 Trump, and it likely would have been tougher for Team Blue to hold without an incumbent. Nolan himself defeated wealthy Republican Stewart Mills 49-47 during the 2014 GOP wave, and he won their 2016 rematch by an ever-tighter 50.2-49.6 margin as Trump was romping to victory here.

Democratic legislative candidates still do relatively well in the 8th District, so Team Blue may have still been able to hold the seat without Nolan. However, national Democrats will probably be happy to have a battle-tested incumbent running rather than taking a chance on a new candidate. Still, it’s likely that Nolan will be in for another tough contest in 2018. Back in February, Mills didn’t rule out a third try. It’s possible that national Republicans would prefer a different candidate this time, but they’re likely to spend heavily here once again regardless of who steps up in the end.

RI-Gov: Cranston Mayor Allan Fung, who lost by just 41-36 as the 2014 Republican nominee, has been expected to seek a rematch with Democratic Gov. Gina Raimondo next year, and he recently said that he is indeed considering running again, with a decision to come later in 2017. Rhode Island is a strongly Democratic state in federal elections, and its legislature has been overwhelmingly Democratic for over half a century, but Republicans have long been competitive in gubernatorial elections—indeed, Raimondo’s 2014 election was the first Democratic gubernatorial victory in 24 years.

The governor’s often rocky tenure has led to speculation that she might even not seek re-election. However, so far she has said that she’s planning on running again, and Raimondo is sure raising money like she’s going to. Her vulnerability has nonetheless helped spur several other Republicans to consider the race in addition to Fung, ex-state Rep. Joseph Trillo, who headed Trump’s state campaign, and a handful of businessmen who might be able to substantially self-fund. However, while state Rep. Robert Nardolillo expressed interest in running for governor, he instead launched a longshot Senate bid against Democratic incumbent Sheldon Whitehouse last month.

IN-Sen: While GOP Rep. Luke Messer has been raising money like a Senate candidate, he still hasn’t announced if he will challenge Democratic incumbent Joe Donnelly. While Messer said back in March that he was “probably a couple of months away from making a final decision," he’s pushed back his timeline. Messer recently said his decision will come “in the next couple months.”

Fellow Rep. Todd Rokita also has also made it no secret that he wants a promotion to the upper chamber, and his people recently told Howey Politics that they expect him to declare he's running in the early summer. State Sen. Mike Delph is also publicly considering, while state Attorney General Curtis Hill and state Rep. Mike Braun reportedly are also thinking about getting in.

GA-Gov: On Wednesday, 2014 Democratic nominee Jason Carter announced that he would not run for governor again next year. Carter, a former state senator and a grandson of Jimmy Carter, had expressed interest in a second bid back in January. However, Carter is reportedly close to state Rep. Stacey Evans, and after she announced last week that she would run, it looked very unlikely that Carter would join the primary.

State House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams will reportedly kick off her bid this weekend, and Carter spoke well of “both Staceys” without issuing an endorsement. Carter was the last noteworthy Georgia Democrat who had showed any interest in running for governor, so the primary field will likely be set once Abrams declares. Carter himself did not rule out a future campaign, though the Atlanta Journal-Constitution says it would “likely [be] for statewide rather than federal office in future cycles.”

NH-Gov: Last week, WMUR reported that unnamed Democrats were urging Executive Councilor Andru Volinsky to challenge GOP Gov. Chris Sununu next year. Volinsky recently told NH1 that he is “going to give it serious consideration over the course of the summer and maybe into September.” Volinsky was elected to New Hampshire’s unique five-person executive council last year, and he delighted progressives by grilling Sununu’s nominees to head the state department of education and for administrative services commissioner. Volinsky is also close to labor and to Bernie Sanders’ supporters.

A few other Granite State Democrats have been eyeing a race against Sununu, who narrowly won his first two-year term last year. Ex-Portsmouth Mayor and 2016 primary candidate Steve Marchand is already running, while fellow 2016 candidate Mark Connolly, a former state securities regulator, has not ruled it out. Neither man did very well in last year’s primary, though, with Colin Van Ostern leading Marchand 51-25 and Connolly taking 20. Van Ostern, whom Volinsky succeeded on the Executive Council, may also be positioning himself for a rematch with Sununu. Ex-Rep. Paul Hodes, who badly lost the 2010 Senate race, also hasn’t ruled out a bid, and other Granite State Democrats may be interested.

It’s also unclear how vulnerable Sununu is in this very competitive state. Aside from Republican Craig Benson's narrow 2004 defeat, New Hampshire voters haven't fired a first-term governor since 1926. Sununu has pushed a very conservative agenda since taking office, though he’s had some high-profile defeats. However, a May University of New Hampshire poll gave Sununu a strong 57-17 approval rating. We are very much not fans of UNH’s horserace polling: The group has a long history of showing huge, unexplainable swings from one poll to the next, and they have a very bad habit of hyping House polls with tiny sample sizes. Their final 2016 poll was also quite off, giving Van Ostern a 48-37 lead over Sununu days before he lost 49-47. Unfortunately, we just don’t have any other data to work with.

OK-Gov: On Wednesday, Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett announced that he would join the GOP primary to succeed termed-out Oklahoma Republican Gov. Mary Fallin. Cornett’s move was a surprise, though it didn’t quite come out of nowhere. Back in February, Cornett announced that he would not seek a fifth term as mayor and added he was considering seeking a job in state government and wouldn’t rule anything out, though he didn’t mention a particular post.

As the mayor of Oklahoma’s largest city, Cornett should start out with some good name recognition. About half of the state is in the Oklahoma City media market, so many people who live outside of the city will have seen him on TV. Cornett is OKC's first four-term mayor, though that's not entirely by choice. In 2006, just a few months after he overwhelmingly won re-election, Cornett ran for the 5th Congressional District and lost the primary runoff to Fallin 63-37.

Cornett will face a competitive GOP primary. State Auditor Gary Jones, wealthy Tulsa attorney Gary Richardson (who likely cost the GOP the 2002 gubernatorial race by running as an independent), and Lt. Gov. Todd Lamb are already running. We haven’t heard any interest from other Republicans, though Cornett’s surprise campaign is a sign that the GOP field may not be settled. If no one takes a majority in the primary, there will be a runoff.

Oklahoma is a conservative state, but Democrats may have an opening next year. As we’ve noted before, thanks in large part to falling oil prices, Oklahoma's financial situation is an utter mess. Over the years, the GOP dominated state government has instituted large income tax cuts and huge cuts to oil and gas production taxes, and the state is suffering from the loss of revenue. Rural hospitals have been closed, and state troopers are only allowed to drive 100 miles per day. This week, after some long negotiations, Fallin signed a budget, but the state’s woes are far from over. As the Washington Post’s Emma Brown recently wrote, scores of schools across the state have been forced to make painful cuts, and most dramatically, some have adopted four-day school weeks.

While some parents (and certainly many students) like having shorter weeks, it has been on a strain for families that can’t afford an extra day of daycare, and for children who depend on schools for meals. As Brown noted, in most of the districts that have adopted four-day weeks, “the overwhelming majority of students qualify for subsidized meals.” Polling is limited in Oklahoma, so we don’t have a good sense for how voters are reacting. However, last month a survey from Sooner.com gave Fallin a horrific 31-61 favorable rating.

If Democrats can convincingly make the argument that the eventual GOP nominee will essentially continue Fallin's governorship, they may be able to pull off an upset. Two potentially strong Democrats entered the race in recent weeks: state House Minority Leader Scott Inman, a vocal Fallin critic, and ex-state Attorney General Drew Edmondson, who narrowly lost the 2010 primary. Ex-state Sen. Connie Johnson, who lost the 2014 special Senate race 68-29, is also running.

IA-01: Last month, Democratic state Rep. state Rep. Abby Finkenauer announced that she would challenge sophomore GOP Rep. Rod Blum, who seems to be on a personal quest to test how much insanity his eastern Iowa seat can take. On Wednesday, aeronautical engineer Courtney Rowe, who served as an alternate delegate for Bernie Sanders to the Democratic National Convention, also joined the race, though it’s unclear if she has the connections to run a strong race.

Two Democratic officeholders have expressed interest in getting in, but they seem to be in a wait-and-see mode. State Sen. Jeff Danielson told Bleeding Heartland that he is still considering, but is “unlikely to publicly declare prior to close of third quarter,” which would seem put a decision at September 1 at the earliest. Linn County Supervisor Brent Oleson also reaffirmed to Bleeding Heartland that he hasn’t ruled it out, adding, “At this time the field is not one that gives me confidence that Democrats will prevail. I stand by earlier comments that I would want early support from Unions & Conservation groups that are serious about reclaiming the seat.” This seat went from 56-43 Obama to 49-45 Trump.

CO-06: Ex-Sen. Mark Udall waded into the developing Democratic primary to face GOP Rep. Mike Coffman this week and endorsed retired Army Ranger Jason Crow. Crow chaired a veterans committee for Udall's 2008 campaign, and influential Colorado Democrats seem to have a high opinion of him. Coffman’s team has directed most of their fire at Crow so far, repeatedly and trollishly arguing that the “Democratic establishment” is trying to force him on the “progressive grassroots.” However, Crow currently lives just outside the district in Denver, something his primary opponents will undoubtably hit him for.

Attorney David Aarestad is also seeking the Democratic nod, while Levi Tillemann, a clean-energy expert who served in Obama's Department of Energy, has formed an exploratory committee. Colorado Politics also notes that state Sen. Rhonda Fields is “often cited as a contender for the Democratic nomination,” though Fields has yet to say anything publicly.

Albuquerque, NM Mayor: The crowded October non-partisan race to succeed retiring GOP Mayor Richard Barry got a little smaller last week. Democrat Deanna Archuleta, a former Bernalillo County commissioner, dropped out of the race, citing the death of her father. Archuleta had the support of Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham, who is running for governor, but she had trouble raising money.

All the candidates will face off on one non-partisan ballot on Oct. 3, and if no one wins a majority, there will be a runoff. Polling has been scare here, but local political blogger Joe Monahan says that the sekret polls show state Auditor Tim Keller, a Democrat, and GOP City Councilor Dan Lewis have clear leads over the rest of the field. Former New Mexico Democratic Party Chair Brian Colon is reportedly a distant third, though his strong fundraising could give him the chance to advance.

San Antonio, TX Mayor: Ex-Mayor Phil Hardberger, who left office in 2009, endorsed City Councilor Ron Nirenberg over Mayor Ivy Taylor this week. Nirenberg, who is trying to oust Taylor in the June 10 non-partisan general election, also has ex-Mayor Julian Castro in his corner. The San Antonio Express-News notes that Hardberger’s endorsement came after Nirenberg was the only city councilor to vote against awarding a major contract to operate the city’s river-barge fleet to a Taylor ally over a firm represented by Hardberger.

While Taylor is nominally a Democrat and Nirenberg refuses to identify with either party, this is one race where party affiliation means little. Taylor has done well in the past with conservative voters, while Nirenberg has appealed to liberals. Taylor’s campaign has nicknamed her opponent “Liberal Ron Nirenberg,” and they very much do not mean it as a compliment.

KY-06: A month ago, Kentucky Democratic leaders said that Amy McGrath, a former fighter pilot who flew 85 combat missions in Iraq and Afghanistan, was considering challenging GOP Rep. Andy Barr. McGrath, who was serving as a U.S. Naval Academy instructor, couldn’t comment until she retired from active duty with the Marines on June 1. On Thursday, McGrath set up an exploratory committee, though the note she set to the FEC describes her as “undecided” about a bid. Several other local Democrats, most notably Lexington Mayor and 2016 Senate nominee Jim Gray, are considering challenging Barr for a 55-39 Trump seat that still sometimes backs Democrats downballot.

NH-02: First-term GOP state Rep. Steve Negron recently told WMUR that he’s considering challenging Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster, and that he expects to decide by the end of June. It’s often difficult to tell which members of New Hampshire’s 400-member state House actually have decent political connections and which are just Some Dudes with nice titles, and this is no different. Negron, a former Air Force officer who runs a local engineering firm, does say he’s “actually been approached by some people I hold in high regard in the state and in Washington,” but didn’t prove any more information about who those people are. This seat went from 54-45 Obama to 49-46 Clinton. 

MI-Gov: This week, a Michigan Republican announced he was running for governor, just not the one we expected. Termed-out state Sen. Patrick Colbeck, who is close to tea partiers, jumped in the race to succeed outgoing GOP incumbent Rick Snyder. Colbeck most recently began a drive to create “Choose Life” license plates that would raise money for the anti-abortion group Right to Life of Michigan, and he’s also supported other tea party friendly causes.

We had expected Lt. Gov. Brian Calley to launch his bid this week after he spent $500,000 in late April on an internet ad campaign that featured him promoting his work with Snyder, and concludes with the text "5.30.17" flashing across the screen. However, Calley instead announced on that day that he was pushing a 2018 ballot measure to make serving in the state legislature a part-time job. Still, it doesn’t sound like Calley is backing off his plans to run. Attorney General Bill Schuette is another likely GOP candidate, and he and Calley would almost certainly start out as the primary frontrunners.

On the Democratic side, there may be a new candidate before too long. University of Michigan Board of Regents member Mark Bernstein, a prominent and wealthy attorney, expressed interest in running after Rep. Dan Kildee announced that he would stay out. Bernstein sounds likely to get in, telling Detroit Today that he’s “taking every step I need to take…to make it possible,” though he hasn’t committed to anything. However, while there was some chatter that unnamed people were trying to convince Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan to run, Duggan reaffirmed that he wouldn’t go for it. Ex-state Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer and former Detroit Health Commissioner Abdul El-Sayed are already in.

MT-Sen: Republican Ryan Zinke was widely expected to challenge Democratic Sen. Jon Tester in 2018, but Trump threw a huge wretch in Team Red’s plans when he picked the congressman to lead the Department of the Interior in December. While Tester will certainly be a top GOP target, Republicans are still wondering who they’ll field six months after Zinke jumped ship. State Sen. Al Olszewski and businessman Troy Downing have both launched bids for the GOP nod, but Politico’s Elena Schneider writes that national Republicans aren’t feeling incredible about either of them.

Downing is close to Zinke, and his Air Force background could be an asset. But Downing isn’t originally from Montana, and it doesn’t help that his self-storage business is based in Southern California. When Downing launched his campaign in mid-May, he admitted he had yet to meet with any state party central committee members. Downing said he would immediately correct that, but his courtship doesn’t appear to be going well, with one unnamed Republican ruefully telling Schneider, “I'm not even sure if he has a Montana area code.” Olszewski, who was the lieutenant governor nominee on Team Red’s losing 2012 ticket, is only mentioned in passing, and no one seems to be interested in deferring to him in any case.

There is one person the GOP would like to challenge Tester, but they’re pessimistic they can get him. Attorney General Tim Fox didn’t say no to a campaign in March, and national Republicans are trying to recruit him. However, Team Red believes that Fox would much rather run for governor in 2020 to replace termed-out Democratic incumbent Steve Bullock. GOP Rep.-elect Greg Gianforte, who lost the 2016 race to Bullock, may have been a potential Fox primary rival. However, Republicans already felt that Gianforte was a weak candidate before he was slapped with a misdemeanor assault charge last week for body slamming a reporter, and Fox’s path through a 2020 gubernatorial primary is now looking a lot better.

A few other Republicans may be interested in facing Tester. Secretary of State Corey Stapleton, who won statewide last year two years after losing the 2014 GOP House primary to Zinke 33-29, has been mentioned as a possible candidate for a while. Schneider says he is considering, though there’s no other information about Stapleton’s plans. State Auditor Matt Rosendale, who took a 28 percent of the vote in that same primary before also winning statewide last year, hasn’t ruled out a campaign in the past. Rosendale reaffirmed to Politico that “the door is always open,” but he seems to be in no hurry to decide, adding, “We have a long summer ahead of us.”

It’s possible that Republican Steve Daines, Montana’s other senator, has his own candidate in mind. Last month, he reportedly told donors that the party has "a statewide elected official that I think can beat Jon Tester" lined up. That would suggest that Daines thinks Fox, Rosendale, or Stapleton will run, but no new information has come out since then.

UK General: On June 8, the United Kingdom will hold its general election, and while the ruling Conservative Party is favored to remain in power, the opposition Labour Party has made huge gains since the start of the campaign. In a new piece, David Beard looks at why Labour has risen in the polls and how Prime Minister Theresa May have lost much of what was a massive lead just a few weeks ago.

IL-Gov: "Blago." It's the last name anyone involved in Illinois politics ever wants to be associated with, but now Blago—as imprisoned former Gov. Rod Blagojevich has always been best known—has re-emerged to haunt billionaire venture capitalist J.B. Pritzker, who is one of the frontrunners for the post Blagojevich held until his impeachment and removal from office on corruption charges in 2009.

On the road to his spectacular implosion, Blagojevich was investigated by the FBI, which had wiretapped several of his phones. Recordings of some Blagojevich calls had been made public during his corruption trial in 2010, but now the Chicago Tribune has obtained audio of previously unreleased conversations between Blagojevich and Pritzker from November of 2008 in which Pritzker asked Blagojevich, a fellow Democrat, if the governor would consider appointing him to the post of state treasurer.

The move never happened, since it was contingent on the possibility of then-Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias leaving office early for a job with the Obama administration. And, at least in the calls we're now privy to, Pritzker didn't suggest anything untoward, though Blagojevich did at one point ask Pritzker for a sizable campaign contribution, equivalent to the $50,000 Pritzker had recently given state Attorney General Lisa Madigan. Pritzker demurred, saying "everything's up in the air," though he had his wife had previously donated at least $140,000 to Blagojevich's gubernatorial campaigns.

Questioned by reporters about his talks with Blagojevich, Pritzker says that "there was nothing inappropriate about my conversation with the governor." But Pritzker's interest in the treasurer's job came as the pincers were very publicly closing around Blagojevich, who was just weeks away from arrest at the time. (Delusional to the last, Blagojevich reassured Pritzker on one call that his legal woes would "just fade away" as soon as some "statutes of limitations" had passed.)

And one of the acts that earned Blagojevich a rather astounding 14-year sentence was the governor's infamous attempt to "sell" the Senate seat Barack Obama had vacated in order to benefit himself. Blagojevich in fact asked Pritzker to consider a Senate appointment, though Pritzker made it clear he wasn't especially interested in the gig, and in the audio of his calls with Blagojevich, you can hear how Pritzker kept steering the conversation back to the treasurer's post.

So, unless we learn more, this all looks like unappealing transactional politics rather than actual wrongdoing, but Blago is so horribly tainted that Pritzker's would-be Republican opponent will doubtless jump on this new opportunity to tie the two men together. In fact, Gov. Bruce Rauner had already tried doing just that last year, with robocalls that used some of the recordings released at Blagojevich's trial. (Those calls only featured the governor and his aides discussing naming Pritzker to Obama's Senate seat in exchange for campaign cash.)

At the time, a Pritzker spokesman dismissed the robocalls' content as "the crazy rantings of Rod Blagojevich," but that same defense isn't going to work now.

GA-06: An act of desperation, or a gift from the gods? The pro-GOP Congressional Leadership Fund, which has spent millions attacking Democrat Jon Ossoff, just released a new TV ad trying to tie Ossoff to none other than Kathy Griffin. Blares the narrator, "Now a celebrity Jon Ossoff supporter is making jokes about beheading the president of the United States" as footage of Griffin's instantly infamous photo shoot rolls. Indeed, Griffin and her ketchup-covered fake head are on screen for a full 10 seconds, including during the closing disclaimer.

Griffin has never so much as donated to Ossoff, though—the most she appears to have done is re-tweet another actress, Alyssa Milano, who's been a vocal Ossoff supporter. Definitely brilliant, though, is Ossoff's response: "Jon Ossoff believes what Kathy Griffin did was despicable and for Karen Handel's super PAC to say otherwise is a disgrace. Karen Handel should immediately demand this ad be pulled before any more children have to see these disturbing images on TV." This plays perfectly into the crocodile tears that Republicans have shed over Griffin. If what she did was so awful that kids shouldn't see it, then why are Republicans exposing them to it all over again?