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James Packer misses out on the casino stock of the year Melco Crown Philippines

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Is there anything more unlucky than a gambler's losing streak? This time last year James Packer's biggest worry was his big bet on the Philippines casino market – it was not going well.

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Crown cashing out of Macau and Las Vegas

James Packer is scrapping plans for an international gambling empire as Crown looks to offload shares in an increasingly risky Macau to focus on a safer bet at home.

The share price of the publicly listed Melco Crown Philippines Resorts had slumped more than 80 per cent in 2015 and last year Melco Crown reported that the venture – its first investment outside Macau – had generated a net loss of 9.14 billion pesos ($259 million) – a 45 per cent increase from the 6.3 billion peso loss the previous year. 

One year later, it is a very different story. Melco Crown Philippines Resorts has been anointed the best-performing casino stock in the world this year despite the fact the company has only just started to turn a profit. 

And it all seems to be down to one key factor, according to a Bloomberg report: The Chinese are finally coming.

President Rodrigo Duterte's growing ties with Beijing have helped, as has China's anti-corruption drive which has driven gamblers out of Macau and into Manila.

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Duterte started cultivating closer ties with Beijing last October.

It yielded immediate results, with Chinese tourist visitors up 25 per cent in the first two months of this year, according to Bloomberg.

Duterte's love affair with China coincided with Packer's spectacular breakup with Mariah Carey

This was followed by the detention of Crown employees in China. The latter sent Packer's Crown into full retreat from the region, which is just starting to recover from China's anti-corruption drive. 

It now looks like the only market that Chinese high rollers are avoiding is Australia. Which is the only market Crown has left.  

Cyber threat  

The issue of cyber warfare has migrated from the conspiracy theory crowd to the front pages of newspapers around the world, so has there ever been a better time to be an ASX-listed cyber security stock like Covata? 

Who can believe the luck of former Telstra dot com guru, Ted Pretty, former pollie and Essendon chairman Lindsay Tanner, and ex-spy boss David Irvine, who clambered onto Covata just six months ago with plans to rejuvenate the business.

Covata shares were trading just below 10¢ when the trio came aboard in December, having traded above 40¢ at the start of last year – and the whole operation obviously needed a good kick up the bum. 

"We have pressed the reset button," said the presentation from Pretty – the new chief executive – in March, but things were already going a bit wobbly. As CBD reported, Covata had "not been chosen as the preferred vendor" for a UK Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) contract, and it halved the stock price to a low of 3.9¢. 

Pretty admitted that there were a few issues that needed fixing – like its "poor track record of sales" – before Covata realises its plans for world domination of the government and corporate cyber security market. Which will hopefully occur before its remaining $7.7 million in cash runs out. 

The job is not getting any easier for Pretty and his new crew, the stock has continued to spiral down over the past month to a new low of 2.5¢ on Monday. The possible cause was the most recent update from Covata stating that another promising customer, German health insurance company, Barmer, had "decided not to proceed with its deployment". 

At least it means the new directors – who were awarded 1 million share options each priced at 20¢, and exercisable by 2022 – have a strong incentive to work their magic on the company and its share price. 

Domino theory 

CBD got excited when Domino's sent out an email promising to "address customer concerns".    

The ASX-listed pizza maker has had a choppy run since Fairfax Media published allegations of widespread worker exploitation and visa fraud

"Domino's has today revealed the top frustrations for its customers including missing garlic breads, uneven pizza slices and poorly distributed pepperoni – after completing extensive market research. The company is promising to do better in its new 'We Care' campaign," said the press release.

Follow CBD on Twitter. Got a tip? ckruger@fairfaxmedia.com.au

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