When health minister Sussan Ley hit the fence in January this year over her use of travel entitlements, Malcolm Turnbull was forced to reshuffle his frontbench – again.
Minimal though it was, it was the fourth shake-up of the ministry since Turnbull rolled Tony Abbott for the leadership just 16 months earlier. That's an average of one every four months and the very antithesis of when Abbott was leader.
From the time he rolled Turnbull in December 2009 until Turnbull paid him back six years later, Abbott, bar a major reshuffle in December 2014, pretty much kept the same frontbench, both in Opposition and government.
His theory was that reshuffles, like surgery, were best avoided because the risk was all downside.
Those demoted or overlooked often became enemies and those who were promoted never thanked you.
Now, with the budget handed down and an election expected as soon as the second half of next year, thoughts are already alive and well inside government regarding the traditional pre-election reshuffle.
Turnbull is weighing two options: either the last sitting week in June which will give everyone involved the six-week winter break to acclimatise to their new roles; or just as Parliament rises in December for the Christmas break.
Turnbull is in no rush and, if pushed, would rather wait until the end of the year.
He has no intention of shifting people in key positions. Scott Morrison is safe in Treasury, Mathias Cormann too valuable in Finance, Greg Hunt has hit the ground running in Health, and Julie Bishop won't budge from Foreign Affairs, despite the ever-growing queue of colleagues coveting her job.
One reason, but not the only one, that Turnbull wants to wait is that at the end of June, the government will receive a report by former diplomat Michael L'Estrange who has led an independent review of the Australian Intelligence Community. L'Estrange may or may not recommend a big shake-up, including merging the roles of several departments into a Homeland Security Department.
Another reason is that the budget is going down relatively well and it is not unwise to just focus on that for a while.
Any reshuffle would also see the departure of Attorney-General George Brandis, who has long been slated for a diplomatic posting. London has been often mentioned but Wellington is now also on the cards. One reason Alexander Downer was asked to extend his posting in London until the end of this year was to give Turnbull some flexibility.
Social Services Minister Christian Porter is the obvious choice for Attorney-General but may only take it if its national security responsibilities are not gutted by whatever recommendations the government adopts from the L'Estrange review.
Porter is clinging to a marginal seat in Perth and Social Services – i.e., welfare cuts – makes him particularly vulnerable to a Labor campaign. Colleagues note he has been pretty much glued to his seat since the budget whereas Peter Dutton, also clinging to a marginal seat in Queensland, has been travelling around doing fundraisers for backbenchers.
Countering this wait-and-see approach on a reshuffle is a push by national leader and Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce to make some changes sooner than later. Joyce holds the agriculture portfolio but, depending on what day it is, is contemplating shifting to infrastructure.
It was Joyce who drove through cabinet and the expenditure review committee the $8.4 billion in the budget for the Melbourne-to-Brisbane rail line and he would like to have custody of the project. Any such move would involve shifting his colleague Darren Chester from infrastructure. At the same time, Joyce is very protective of agriculture and water and is anxious they not be allowed to slip in status.
Complicating all of this is the Queensland Liberal National Party. Years of failing to renew its personnel has now left it bereft of obvious cabinet material. If there is a reshuffle and Brandis goes, there is no one left in Queensland who would be an automatic entry for Cabinet. Parliamentary secretaries Keith Pitt and Jane Prentice are the standouts but probably best suited to an outer ministry first.
For this reason, former Queensland LNP state leader and minister Lawrence Springborg, who has announced his retirement from state politics at this year's Queensland election, is being gently prevailed upon to replace Brandis in the Senate.
Springborg, if he accepts, would have to sit in the Liberal Party room in Canberra but would be rewarded with an entry straight into cabinet.
He is genuinely undecided at the moment, another reason why it might be better to wait. Even if he agrees to come to Canberra, the LNP is claiming it is underdone in Cabinet and will be demanding two spots in any reshuffle. That will really test things.
Some say either veteran LNP Senator Ian Macdonald or Senator Barry O'Sullivan, who has become estranged from Joyce and some of his other colleagues, should pull the pin, to free up a second spot for an up and comer with cabinet potential.
It will be a brave person who dares try and tap O'Sullivan.
"You'll have to carry Barry out in a pine box," said a colleague.
None of these theories, all of which change every few days, involve putting Tony Abbott back in the ministry. Turnbull has decided to continue wearing the consequences of that.
One can see, though, why reshuffles are vexed exercises best avoided.
On the other side, Labor continues to be uncannily stable. Bill Shorten will undertake a small change soon to replace the retiring Kate Ellis but, otherwise his team is performing relatively well.
The biggest challenge is the silent stirring of leadership aspirant Anthony Albanese who has had two veiled cracks at Shorten in as many weeks. First he took him down over a clumsy ad about putting Australia workers first which bordered on racist. Then, this week, he gave a speech in which he implicitly took issue with the way Shorten responded to the budget.
They were small tremors but enough to reignite old fears in Labor that, despite being six points up in the polls, six seats shy of government and streets ahead in the policy debate, could still throw it all away.
Remember, never, ever underestimate the capability of Labor to destroy itself.
Phillip Coorey is The Australian Financial Review's chief political correspondent.
