South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 12th May)

Best Days: Sat: fun leftover E'ly swell. Sun: building short range E'ly swell, likely with light winds (though onshores are a risk). Mon: fun E/NE swell across Northern NSW though likely to ease at some point, mainly late afternoon and into Tues. 

Recap: E’ly swells built surf size slowly through Thursday before easing today, max wave heights were around 3-4ft at exposed beaches but it's now smaller in size. Winds have been light across the Mid North Coast but a lingering S’ly across the Far Northern NSW and SE Qld coasts has kept the best surf at the outer points. 

Currumbin looking fun this afternoon

This weekend (May 13 - 14)

The current E’ly groundswell will ease slowly over the weekend.

Early Saturday should still see 2-3ft sets across most beaches, but it may become a little smaller during the day. Winds should be mainly light and variable; there’s chance for a lingering SE flow across the Sunny Coast in the morning but that should disappear during the day. 

Sunday just became a little more complex within the model guidance. A trough is expected to form along the East Coast during the day - possibly spinning up a weak surface low for the Far North Coast - and an infeed of E’ly winds into this system should generate some fun waves across many coasts. 

I’m actually a big fan of these kinds of short range swells, as they’re peaky and well suited to the beach breaks. And more times often than not, the trough remains just far off the coast to allow for local winds to remain favourably light, sometimes offshore. This certainly looks possible in most areas however there is certainly a risk that winds could kick up from the east during the day, more likely around the Gold Coast and Far Northern NSW region than anywhere else.

This short range E’ly swell should build into the 3ft range across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, if anything we’ll see a smidge of E/NE in the direction. Surf size will probably be undersized south of Yamba, at least in the morning, though it should increase into the afternoon.

Winds may also swing S’ly late in the day as the low begind to form off the Sourth Coast, though these winds are more likely across the Mid North Coast. But on the whole there is some good potential for fun beachies (banks permitting) on Sunday. 

Next week (May 15 onwards)

As the East Coast trough develops through Sunday, we’ll eventually see a surface low form well east of the Southern NSW Coast, probably later Monday or into Tuesday, kicking up S’ly winds along this region.

This poses a rather complex outlook for SE Qld and Northern NSW, because as the trough deepens, its focus will tilt towards the south and thus outside of our swell window. Therefore we’ll probably have to make the most of Monday’s residual E'ly tending E/NE swell combo (distant energy plus some leftovers from Sunday’s short range spike).

However, it appears that we could be in for a decent E/NE swell off the developing trough on Monday, mainly south of the border. Right now the models aren’t too keen on it, but the reality is that they’ve only ramped up this scenario over the last few days - and I have a feeling it’s got a little more to go. I wouldn’t be surprised if this complex trough-cum-Tasman-Low turns up to be a decent swell generator for Southern NSW at least, and possibly Northern NSW as well - initially some E/NE swell then a return south swell off the bottom of the low. 

Other than that there’s nothing else standing out in the long term outlook. A small but steady trade flow south south of Fiji for much of the forecast period will stop exposed beaches from becoming flat mid-late next week but otherwise there are no significant swell sources on the horizon.

I’ll update my thoughts in the comments below over the weekend re: early next week’s surf prospects, as updated data becomes available. 

Have a great weekend!