The arrival of Amazon will be an existential moment for some retailers and it will almost certainly trigger of wave of industry rationalisation. But it will also have a Darwinian flavour - a test of adaptive skills and survival of the fittest.
Since the US e-commerce giant last month formally announced its intention to expand in Australia, there has been a rash of analysis on the extent of the damage Cyclone Amazon will inflict on the retail sector, most of which has been extrapolated from its arrival in other countries.
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Amazon by the numbers
Get to know the online retail giant before it sets up shop on Australian shores.
For Australian retailers, the entry of Amazon will have a greater effect than the imposition of the goods and services tax or even the more gradual entry of online competitors.
A report from international ratings agency Standard & Poor's in May sums it up, saying "the tide of change that began with internet commerce has built into a tsunami called the Amazon Effect, resulting in bricks and mortar retailers shrinking their physical footprints while focusing on shifting more business online or risking being relegated to the remainder bin of retail history".
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But before getting into the financial impact of Amazon, the potential for even the best-managed retailers in Australia to withstand this new competitive force must be viewed in the context of the current headwinds facing the industry.
Within the discretionary sector, conditions are already challenging. A string of disappointing results, particularly from apparel-dependent retailers, and including department stores, is the clearest evidence of the pressure these businesses are under.
Earlier this week, the Australian Bureau of Statistics released its March retail spending bombshell - a 0.1 per cent drop compared with expectations of a 0.3 per cent rise.
Economists expressed various levels of concern, with Citigroup declaring "the retail sector is verging on recession".
"Retail trade growth has now been negative in three out of the last four months (no growth per month on average), the sector's worst performance since July to November 2012," Citi analysts said.
"Retail sales numbers are now just 2.1 per cent higher than the same level of last year. This is the slowest growth rate in almost four years."
There are a whole series of factors contributing to this weak sales environment, but at the heart of it is a lack of consumer confidence and wages growth.
And if retailers were looking to this week's federal budget for any help, they would have been sorely disappointed.
The tide of change that began with internet commerce has built into a tsunami called the Amazon Effect.
Standard & Poor's report
Indeed, those who have a mortgage are likely to be paying more thanks to the government's decision to apply an additional tax on banks, some of which will be passed on via higher interest rates on loans or lower rates on deposits.
Myer boss Richard Umbers, who reported weak third-quarter sales on Thursday but affirmed full-year guidance for a better profit in 2017, describes retail conditions as challenging but maintains those that are evolving their business models to address the Amazon threat will fare better.
In a recent report, Credit Suisse predicted that if Amazon were to enter the domestic market this year, Myer could lose up to 55 per cent of its potential earnings before interest and tax by fiscal 2022, compared with a scenario where Amazon didn't enter the market.
In a follow-up report this week, Credit Suisse analyst Grant Saligari said Myer would have to accelerate the rate of store closures to combat the Amazon threat.
Part of the problem is that no one knows exactly how Amazon will approach the Australian market - as Umbers notes, it's more difficult to defend against an attack that lacks a clear shape.
But international experience means retailers are under no illusion about the carnage Amazon will leave in its wake.
This week, Citi took a forensic dive into the prospects for another two of Australia's listed retailers, JB Hi-Fi and Harvey Norman.
While Harvey Norman founder Gerry Harvey is the digital revolution equivalent of a climate sceptic, Citi analyst Bryan Raymond sees the future very differently.
Raymond drew on the experience of Amazon's entry into the US, German and UK markets and downgraded Citi's long-term earnings forecasts for Harvey Norman and JB Hi-Fi by 30 per cent and 40 per cent respectively.
The Citi research found Amazon to be 15 per cent cheaper across various electronics categories and said its arrival should see established retailers reduce prices by 10 per cent.
In its survey of other regions, even large players (like Radioshack and Comet) didn't survive and those that did sustained declines in sales. A significant consolidation was also a common feature.
Citi believes Harvey Norman will find some protection from its sales of furniture and large white goods but its small appliances and electronics business will feel the same chilly wind from Amazon.
Wesfarmers' incoming chief executive, Rob Scott, said a few weeks ago that the company, which owns Coles, Bunnings, Kmart, Target and Officeworks, has had a strategy team in place for more than a year to defend against Amazon.
S&P; notes that many retailers around the world have navigated cyclical pressures ranging from soft economics to swings in real estate valuations, supply chain disruptions and ever-evolving consumer behaviour.
"But it's a different environment today. Along with those recurrent challenges, even the biggest-name retailers are struggling with structural fissures that have shuddered countless stores (and will continue to do so) and forced them to rethink how they do business … it's fairly dark days for many retailers."
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