Battle for Mosul: When the fighting ends, the real test begins
Updated
May 11, 2017 07:27:14
The Iraqi military says the battle for Mosul has entered its final phase, but what comes next will be crucial to the international battle against the Islamic State group.
Key points:
- Over 435,000 people from west Mosul have been forced from their homes, UN says
- It's a "good" month if fewer than 500 civilians are killed in Iraq, figures show
- During a five-month period, jihadists earned $2.4 million from extortion alone
The effort to rebuild Iraq's security forces, which Australia has been a part of, needs to continue, emphasising human rights and the fight against corruption, as well as insurgency.
And the aid effort needs to bear in mind the skill IS displayed in the past, stripping millions out of the local economy through corruption and extortion.
Consider the staggering toll on civilians and you get a sense of how great the obligation is to secure Mosul and rebuild carefully.
The United Nations estimates that more than 435,000 people from west Mosul have now been forced from their homes. While 30,000 have made their way back, that's still an enormous crisis.
The UN's figures show it is a "good" month if fewer than 500 civilians are killed in Iraq.
In Mosul's Nineveh province, more than 2,000 have been killed since the operation to push IS out of the city began in October last year.
And it could be much worse.
In numbers just released, the casualty tracking group Airwars estimates a likely toll of between 700 and 1,000 civilians killed by the US-led Coalition alone.
Bolster fight against insurgency with fight against crime
Whatever the numbers, it is a terrible cost, paid by a community that has been through civil war, invasion and tyrannical rule for decades.
And one look at the history of Mosul shows the Islamic State group is unlikely to just turn its back on the city.
For one thing, Mosul offers IS the chance to make money and lots of it.
A Rand study of captured documents from the IS predecessor organisation, the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), shows it "resembled a ruthlessly violent and effective organised-crime syndicate" that was self-financing, generating US$4.8 million ($6.5 million) in revenue between August 2008 and January 2009.
In that same five-month period, the jihadists earned US$1.83 million ($2.4 million) from extortion alone, including from construction projects, "typically demanding 10 to 20 per cent of a contract's value, in exchange for protection."
That demonstrates the need to bolster the fight against insurgency with an integrated fight against organised crime and corruption.
When I visited Mosul earlier this year I found the mostly Sunni civilians, despite all they had been through, were willing to give the Shiite-dominated Government a chance. That is extraordinary, given the history of violence, sectarianism and abuse perpetrated by the security forces.
A former Mosul policeman, Ala' Mekdad Mustafa, told me "they would hold people without charge … they considered themselves above the law. [An officer] would open a trunk, throw in a weapon and then tell the driver to give money or he will be punished."
Corruption and physical abuse don't just undermine support for a given government, they undermine support for the system of government as a whole. And, crucially, the abuse that fed disaffection in Iraq did not disappear once IS was in charge.
Their puritanical violence is now infamous. But less well known is the fact that they also imposed arbitrary fines and confiscated businesses to favour their allies. To some locals it was just another mode of extortion and theft.
That is one reason the Government now has a chance to reset relations with the people of Mosul. Their goodwill could easily be swept away if civilian casualties soar as the security forces fight their way into the densely packed old city. But, for now, there is a chance.
Almost anyone you ask in Mosul will tell you their top priority is to get back to work and there is a desperate need to get the city's economy going again.
But "hearts and minds" cannot simply be bought and rebuilding communities in the midst of ongoing violence is devilishly complex.
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An Iraqi special forces soldier runs across a street during a battle with Islamic State militants in Mosul, Iraq March 3, 2017. (Reuters: Goran Tomasevic)
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Iraqi security forces advance during fighting against Islamic State militants, in western Mosul, Iraq, Tuesday, February 28. (AP: Mohammed Numan)
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Iraqi security forces help a displaced Iraqi woman flee her home as Iraqi forces battle with Islamic State militants in western Mosul, Iraq February 26, 2017. (Reuters: Alaa Al-Marjani)
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Iraqi security forces are pictured during a battle with Islamic State militants in western Mosul, Iraq February 26, 2017. (Reuters: Alaa Al-Marjani)
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A displaced woman covers her daughter after fleeing the battle near Mosul. (Reuters: Adhmed Jadallah)
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Iraqi soldier treks into battle. (ABC News: Aaron Hollett)
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Locals are hopeful the cruel rule of IS is over. (Reuters: Azad Lashkari)
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Members of the Iraqi rapid response forces stand on the top of vehicle during a battle between Iraqi forces and Islamic State militants in Wahda district of eastern Mosul, Iraq, January 8, 2017. (Reuters: Alaa Al-Marjani)
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Displaced people who fled the clashes walk past Iraqi security forces vehicles during a battle with Islamic State militants in Mosul, Iraq, November 30, 2016. (Reuters: Alaa Al-Marjani)
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Members of the Shiite Badr Organisation fighters take cover behind a berm during a battle with Islamic State militants at the airport of Tal Afar west of Mosul, Iraq, November 20, 2016. (Reuters: Khalid al Mousily)
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Iraqi special forces policemen dance while holding up weapons outside Karamah, south of Mosul, Iraq November 11, 2016. (Reuters: Goran Tomasevic)
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An Iraqi soldier gestures along a street in the Intisar district of eastern Mosul, Iraq, November 14, 2016. (Reuters: Air Jalal)
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A family fleeing fighting between the Islamic State and Iraqi army in Intisar district of eastern Mosul, make their way to safer territory, November 8, 2016. (Reuters: Zohra Bensemra)
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Iraqi soldiers pose with the Islamic State flag along a street in the Intisar district of eastern Mosul, Iraq, November 14, 2016, after capturing the same area from this district from the Islamic State on November 3. (Reuters: Air Jalal)
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An Iraqi special forces soldier stands atop a Humvee in the village of Bazwaia, some eight kilometres from the centre of Mosul, Iraq, Monday, Oct. 31, 2016. (AP: Marko Drobnjakovic)
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Iraqi special forces soldiers move in formation in an alley on the outskirts of Mosul, Iraq, Friday, Nov. 4, 2016. Heavy fighting erupted in the eastern neighbourhoods of Mosul on Friday as Iraqi special forces launched an assault deeper into the urban areas of the city and swung round to attack Islamic State militants from a second entry point, to the northeast. (AP: Marko Drobnjakovic)
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Tribal fighters walk as fire and smoke rises from oil wells, set ablaze by Islamic State militants before IS militants fled the oil-producing region of Qayyara, Iraq, November 1, 2016. (Reuters: Alaa Al-Marjani)
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A member of the Iraqi Special Operations Forces (ISOF) kisses a shiite flag on the top of a military vehicle on the outskirts of Bartila, east of Mosul, during an operation to attack Islamic State militants in Mosul, Iraq, October 19, 2016 (Reuters: Azad Lashkari)
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FILE - In this May 27, 2015 photo, Iraqi Shiite Hezbollah Brigade militiamen prepare their armoured vehicles for fighting against the Islamic State group in the front line after regaining control of eastern Husaybah town, 8 kilometers (5 miles) east of Ramadi, Iraq. State-sanctioned Shiite militias launched an assault on the Islamic State group west of the Iraqi city of Mosul on Saturday, Oct. 29, 2016, but reiterated that they would not enter the Sunni majority city. Jaafar al-Husseini, a spokesman for the Hezbollah Brigades, said they launched an offensive Saturday along with other large militias toward the town of Tel Afar, which had a Shiite majority before it fell to IS in 2014. (AP)
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Peshmerga military vehicles drive in Nawaran north of Mosul during an operation to attack Islamic State militants, Iraq October 26, 2016. (Reuters: Ari Jalal)
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Iraqi army soldiers are seen beside their armoured vehicles as a smoke from a nearby sulfur plant set alight by Islamic State militants rises behind, on the outskirts of Qayyara, south of Mosul, Iraq, October 23, 2016. (Reuters: Zohra Bensemra)
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Iraq's elite counterterrorism forces advance toward Islamic State positions as fighting to retake the extremist-held city of Mosul enters its second week, in the village of Tob Zawa, outside Mosul, Monday, October 24, 2016. (AP: Khalid Mohammed)
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A convoy of armoured vehicles belonging to international coalition troops drive during the operation against Islamic State militants outside the town of Naweran near Mosul, Iraq on October 23, 2016. (Reuters: Azad Lashkari)
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Smoke rises at Islamic State militants' positions in the town of Naweran, near Mosul, Iraq, October 23, 2016 (Reuters: Azed Lashkari)
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Peshmerga forces fire a mortar towards Islamic state militants' positions in the town of Naweran near Mosul, October 23, 2016. (Reuters: Azad Lashkari)
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An Iraqi special forces soldier stands in a Christian cemetery inside a church compound damaged by Islamic States fighters in Bartella, east of Mosul, Iraq. (Reuters: Goran Tomasevic)
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Iraqi army gather after the liberation of a village from Islamic State militants, south of Mosul, during an operation to attack Islamic State militants in Mosul, Iraq, October 21, 2016, as toxic smoke is seen over the area after Islamic State militants set fire to a sulphur factory. (Reuters: Thaier Al-Sudan )
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Peshmerga forces stand behind rocks at a site of an attack by Islamic State militants in Kirkuk, Iraq, October 21, 2016. (Reuters: Ako Rasheed)
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Peshmerga forces prepare their anti-tank guided missiles in front of Islamic State militants' positions at the town of Naweran near Mosul, Iraq October 20, 2016. (Reuters: Zohra Bensemra)
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Smoke rises from clashes in the east of Mosul during clashes with Islamic State militants, Iraq, October 17, 2016. (Reuters: Azad Lashkari)
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Kurdish security forces take up a position as they fight overlooking the Islamic State-controlled in villages surrounding Mosul, in Khazer, about 30 kilometres east of Mosul, Iraq on October 17, 2016. (AP)
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Iraqi army soldiers raise their weapons in celebration on the outskirts of Mosul, Iraq, Thursday, Oct. 20, 2016. (AP)
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Displaced people who have fled ISIS territory gather in the village of Tinah, south west of Mosul. (Supplied: Thomas Robinson/Oxfam)
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Smoke rising over rows of tents at the Tinah camp, from oil fields burning in the distance. (Supplied: Thomas Robinson/Oxfam)
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Two young children living at Golat camp in Debaga north of Mosul pose for a photo, while men construct more tents in the background. (Supplied: Amy Christian/Oxfam)
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Mokhtar (village head) Nisr Amr, 35, sits with his son in the ruins of his father's house in the village of Imam Gharbi, some 70km south of Mosul. October 13, 2016. (Oxfam: Sam Tarling )
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Omar stands inside by the ruins of his brother's house in the village of Imam Gharbi, some 70km south of Mosul, Iraq, on October 13, 2016.
The house was destroyed by Islamic State, when they took control of the village in 2014. (Oxfam: Sam Tarling )
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Children run beside military vehicles passing by in the village of Imam Gharbi, some 70km south of Mosul, Iraq. October 13, 2016. (Oxfam: Sam Tarling )
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Smoke from burning oil fields in Al Qarrayah fills the sky near the village of Imam Gharbi, some 70km south of Mosul, Iraq, on October 13, 2016. (Oxfam: Sam Tarling)
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Children watch military vehicles pass by in the village of Imam Gharbi, some 70km south of Mosul, Iraq, on October 13, 2016. (Oxfam: Sam Tarling )
Gallery:
Reclaiming Mosul
Chance to rebuild with meaningful projects
While you might assume that unemployment and economic deprivation feed grievances and anti-government violence, researchers who have examined conflict in Iraq, Afghanistan and the Philippines have found that creating more jobs does not automatically lower violence.
And security measures like checkpoints and house raids that are supposed to keep budding businesses and customers safe can throttle economic activity in the process.
It is worth remembering that, even while the US Government spent US$29 billion ($39 billion) in Iraq between 2003 and 2007, violence was going through the roof.
During that time the US military spent US$2.9 billion ($3.9 billion) on smaller projects, through a program that allowed local military commanders to cut through red tape. It bypassed what would normally be important bureaucratic processes, but delivered cash, quickly, to smaller projects deemed important at the local level.
That experience backed what some humanitarian agencies have long argued that small and local is the way to go.
If that sort of development this time around is integrated with careful security measures there might be a chance to rebuild with meaningful projects, without lining the Islamic State group's pockets in the process.
The defeat of IS in Mosul will be a signal moment for Iraq and the international coalition, which includes Australia. But failing to win the peace would be another milestone in a long and tragic line of failures.
Matt Brown is also a Visiting Fellow at the Australian National University's Coral Bell School of Asia and Pacific Studies. This article draws on material from his Centre of Gravity discussion paper, published by the School's Strategic and Defence Studies Centre. For more detail, visit the website.
Topics:
unrest-conflict-and-war,
terrorism,
iraq
First posted
May 11, 2017 07:16:04