For the first time in a long time, Hawthorn will not be mentioned in debate about the teams that are capable of winning the 2017 premiership. And it's likely to be the same scenario next year. So, instead of asking the obvious question, "What's happened at Hawthorn?", let's pose a more pertinent query: "What will happen at Hawthorn?"
The answer to that question lies in the hands of mastermind coach Alastair Clarkson and his list management team, who have done a phenomenal job to deliver four flags in eight years.
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But, whether the Hawks decide to target ready-made players from rival clubs – as they did with Jaeger O'Meara and Tom Mitchell – or regenerate through the draft, they will have to move on one or more stars with currency. With no first-round pick as it stands, it not only limits their ability at the national draft but also restricts the cards they have to play with at the trade table. With this considered, someone simply has to go.Â
Let's review the options.
Grant Birchall
Undisputed gun. The four-time premiership player has been a consistent star off half-back and his leadership would be cherished at any club. He will be 30 by the time next season comes round, so a team looking to recruit him would need to be close to contending. A team such as Melbourne would love some more class out of their defensive half.
![Premiership Hawk Grant Birchall.](http://web.archive.org./web/20170424054233im_/http://www.smh.com.au/content/dam/images/g/n/u/k/3/l/image.imgtype.articleLeadwide.620x349.png/1491103887468.png)
Premiership Hawk Grant Birchall. Photo: Graham Denholm
Jack Gunston
There has been some harsh and unfounded criticism of Gunston over the first four rounds. Yes, he's struggling as a forward in a side that can't kick goals. But people quickly forget he kicked 51 goals last year as the Hawks' No.1 forward in the absence of Jarryd Roughead. Carlton, Collingwood and Richmond would all love someone who can kick 50-plus goals.
Paul Puopolo
Like Gunston, "Poppy" is another forward coming off a career-best season but who is struggling in a team that isn't scoring freely. He is a three-time premiership player who deserves all the plaudits he gets, but he does turn 30 in December.
![There she goes... Paul Puopolo watches his final effort sail through the posts.](http://web.archive.org./web/20170424054233im_/http://www.smh.com.au/content/dam/images/g/o/d/b/t/b/image.imgtype.articleLeadwide.620x349.png/1461383968437.png)
Paul Puopolo turns 30 in December. Photo: Getty Images
Liam Shiels
Shiels is a vital cog in Hawthorn's engine room and an elite leader as shown when he was named joint vice-captain for this year. At 25 (soon to be 26), Shiels is at a perfect age to add midfield depth at other clubs. He was a second-round pick in 2008 and is another three-time premiership player.
Ben Stratton
Stratton has shown he is capable of playing on any type of forward in the game and has just turned 28. Some may be surprised to see him included on this list, but excellent defenders aren't easy to come by. He has missed only a handful of games since 2012, so has proven he is both versatile and durable.Â
While these five players are all stars in their own right, it's unlikely that a club would value them as automatic first-round selections. There are, however, three other players on Hawthorn's list who would attract clubs willing to offload early draft picks.
Luke Breust
Small-medium forwards who consistently kicks goals are particularly hard to find, so there's no doubt Breust is an attractive proposition. The only problem is he rejected the chance to move at the end of last season when he was a free agent, and signed on at Waverley until the end of 2021. While that may make him slightly less attractive to other clubs, there is likely to be a club out there willing to pay a high price.
![Luke Breust is averaging two goals a game this season.](http://web.archive.org./web/20170424054233im_/http://www.smh.com.au/content/dam/images/g/q/9/u/6/3/image.imgtype.articleLeadwide.620x349.png/1468991307398.png)
High price: Luke Breust.
Isaac Smith
An elite runner and a great ball user, Smith would be a starting wingman and a genuine game-changer in any team. At 28, he represents significant value to a team with a strong foundation that is looking to add poise and class. St Kilda, who ironically have two first-round picks after Hawthorn gave them theirs last year, have a war chest to throw at someone and Fremantle champion Nat Fyfe will be difficult to lure.
Cyril Rioli
The name no Hawthorn fan wants to hear mentioned as tradeable – Rioli. But of all the players on their list, he is the diamond every club will want. The superstar turns 28 in July and is capable of just about anything on a football field. A four-time premiership player who is now a three-time All-Australian and a Norm Smith medallist. Forget asking what his value is, all 17 clubs would be hunting the magician and what's more, they'd be willing to pay a big price.
Two of the seven players mentioned, Smith and Shiels, are vice-captains and Rioli is a club legend and cult hero. Clarkson showed at the end of last season – when Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis were moved on – how far he is willing to go in the quest for success.Â
The trading of Smith or Rioli in particular would send significant reverberations through the corridors at Waverley. Indeed, there may be a fine line between trading out players with value to continue the pursuit of success, and the risk of tearing the club's fabric.Â
![MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 25: Cyril Rioli of the Hawks kicks the ball during the round one AFL match between the Essendon Bombers and the Hawthorn Hawks at Melbourne Cricket Ground on March 25, 2017 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)](http://web.archive.org./web/20170424054233im_/http://www.smh.com.au/content/dam/images/g/v/n/v/8/4/image.imgtype.articleLeadwide.620x349.png/1492581620730.png)
Decorated Hawk Cyril Rioli. Photo: Getty Images