Liberal Party powerbrokers warn Tony Abbott could face a preselection challenge for his seat of Warringah ahead of next year's federal election, especially if he continues to destabilise the Turnbull government.
With the majority of Mr Abbott's colleagues again dismayed at his latest outburst on Monday this week in which he openly criticised policy direction, party operatives said it was more than likely that Mr Abbott would be challenged for the safe northern beaches seat he has held since 1994.
Liberal moderates are encouraged by the recent preselection contest for the state seat of Manly, vacated by Mike Baird, and which falls in Mr Abbott's electorate.
Mr Abbott's preferred candidate, Walter Villatora "was smashed" by moderate James Griffin and this should serve as a warning to the former prime minister that he risks a locally-inspired push to oust him.
One conservative powerbroker said while Mr Abbott was "marginally" in control of the numbers in his seat, a challenge was a sure thing.
"I'd put my house on it," the conservative said.
"It's a fluid situation but the way he is going, he is pissing off more people every day."
An MP aligned to Mr Abbott warned such a move "wouldn't be helpful to anybody".
It would place Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull in an invidious position because he would come under pressure from a conservative section of the party to intervene to save a former leader.
In 2006, Labor leader Kim Beazley refused to protect former leader Simon Crean from a challenge - which he survived - and this was a pivotal factor in Mr Beazley's downfall.
However, Mr Abbott would be at greater risk of losing should the party rule changes he is advocating - that preselections be decided by a plebiscite of members rather than faction dominated party structures - be adopted at a special NSW Liberal Party rules conference in June.
"A seat like Warringah needs to be for a minister, or potential minister," argued one powerbroker who declined to be named.
"Tony's a bit like Bronwyn (Bishop). She was never going to be promoted again."
Mr Abbott, who said two weeks ago he intended to recontest his seat, still aspires to return to the ministry.
He appears on high-rating radio station 2GB three times every fortnight, giving him a platform to talk directly to the conservative base.
On Monday, in another provocative intervention, he repeated his five policy demands, including a cut to immigration, that the Coalition should adopt.
Most members of the Coalition have now adopted a form of words designed to stop Mr Abbott's comments gaining traction and dominating the news cycle.
These are along the lines that Mr Abbott is a backbencher and entitled to speak his mind, but he should do so judiciously.
However, Queensland MP Warren Entsch said Mr Abbott should consider quitting politics.
"When he starts continuing to sort of perform on a national stage then of course this is very very damaging to the government," he said.
"If he can't contain his comments to issues relating to his electorate – which is what is expected of all of us backbenchers – if he can't do that and if he feels he just wants to continue to criticise the government and its performance and the Prime Minister then really he is not making any positive contribution at all."
