The historic constitutional referendum in Turkey on Sunday resulted in a marginal victory, 51 per cent, for the incumbent president Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his ruling AK Party.
Certainly, the referendum was not a fair election. Entire state machinery, its immense resources and state controlled media were put to the full disposal of the "yes" campaign. Those declaring a "yes" vote were celebrated, while those with the courage to declare a "no" vote were labelled as traitors. Expectedly, there were immediate allegations of massive electoral fraud. It was a textbook "house always wins" case.
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Turkey referendum: Erdogan claims victory
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has celebrated what he said is a clear win in a referendum to grant him sweeping new powers.
Despite these reservations, nothing will change the outcome. Erdogan has finally attained his long-time ambition to amass sweeping powers in executive presidency ending the era of parliamentary democracy in Turkish history.
When the modern Turkish republic was established in 1923 from the ashes of the Ottoman Empire, it was defined as a modern secular state. A few attempts at democracy did not work until 1946 when Turkey embarked on the democratic change. Even though there were a number of military coups, Turkey has always returned to a form of liberal democracy with separation of powers, rule of law and free media. As a member of NATO and candidate for EU membership, Turkey was seen as an ally of Europe and the West.
Erdogan's first two terms in government (2002-08) saw improvements in democracy, liberal rights and concrete advancements towards EU membership. His government was supported by a broad coalition of liberal Turkish elite, the democratic educated class and the conservative masses. It was hailed by western leaders and media as a model Muslim country that successfully combined modernity, democracy and Islam.
Yet it all started to change with his third term in 2011 and the Arab Spring developments in the Middle East. Erdogan was encouraged by his supporters as the potential leader of the Muslim world. He took an active role in Egyptian and Syrian politics while he slowly ousted potential leaders in his party. Liberal and democratic circles have dropped their support from an increasingly authoritarian Erdogan.
Then came the 2013 corruption probe implicating Erdogan and four of his ministers with massive corruption related to circumvention of economic sanctions over Iran. To prevent charges going to court, Erdogan chose a harsher authoritarian line. He purged thousands of police officers and judges and closed down major media outlets, putting immense pressure on the remaining independent media.
The failed coup attempt in July 2016 simply accelerated Erdogan's absolute grip on power, with more than 140,000 purges and more than 40,000 arrests removing all opposition to the Turkish-style presidential system.
As Erdogan described it, the referendum result unifies powers in one person, himself, rather than the all-important principle of separation of powers in a liberal democracy. When changes take effect, Erdogan will form the government by appointing ministers from outside the parliament. His presidential decrees will be equal to legislation of the parliament.
As the leader of the ruling AK Party, he will hold the majority vote in the parliament, in effect, controlling the legislative branch. Half of the top council appointing judges and prosecutors will be appointed by him and the other half will be appointed by the parliament he controls. He will have the power to abolish the parliament and declare state of emergency any time. Turkey should no longer be considered a liberal democracy. It has become an elected autocracy as of Sunday.
It seems that the Western powers could not read the developments in Turkey well. Erdogan successfully kept EU leaders in check with his threats of opening the gates to hundreds and thousands of Syrian refugees to march towards Europe. Britain signed a defence deal with Erdogan government in January, while Turkey gave clear signs of leaving not only EU membership bid but also the entire Western bloc.
The referendum has deeply polarised the Australian Turkish community. Turkish embassy and consulate officials actively encouraged the "yes" vote. Videos taken in Turkish mosques circulated on social media where the "yes" vote was encouraged while segments of the Turkish community who were against Erdogan were demonised.
Regardless of these attempts, the "no" vote was decisively ahead for Australian Turkish voters with 65 per cent, 52 per cent and 81 per cent "no" votes recorded in Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra respectively. Any Turkish-Australian with dual Turkish citizenship could have voted in the referendum.
The results mean jubilation for a significant segment of Australian Turks. They think Erdogan is the greatest leader in Turkish history. They believe he will make Turkey a world power and bring back the Turkish dignity and pride not only for Turks but for all Muslims around the world.
The majority of Australian Turks, though, are worried for the future of Turkey. They are saddened to see a shining democracy degrade into an average Middle Eastern one-man-rule country, and they worry the autocracy has the propensity to bring economic and political disaster for the country.
The only glimmer of hope for Turkey is the 49 per cent "no" vote that was registered despite immense state and media support for "yes". With half the population against Erdogan, political solutions in the form of new political parties are a real possibility.
Erdogan has been in power for 15 years and is now set to be in power until 2029. He will certainly claim achievements to his credit, but he will have to bear full responsibility for failures and any negative consequences of his long rule for Turkey and the region.
Mehmet Ozalp is an associate professor in Islamic studies and the director of the Centre for Islamic Studies and Civilisation at Charles Sturt University.
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