The worst thing to tell someone who is in trouble is that "at least your problems aren't as bad the ones the bloke across the road faces". In other words, things could be worse.
When assessing Malcolm Turnbull's predicament as Prime Minister, things could indeed be worse – but not much.
![Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull needs the May budget to revive his leadership.](/web/20170417233140im_/http://www.smh.com.au/content/dam/images/g/v/4/w/6/c/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gv6k86.png/1490511660869.jpg)
After a faint hint that his fortunes might be improving, public voting intentions as expressed in the latest Fairfax Ipsos opinion poll show a lone positive: he's still more popular than Bill Shorten. As preferred prime minister, Mr Turnbull leads 45 per cent to 33 per cent.
Even so, the 12-point gap is the narrowest since the election last July and pales in comparison with the 46 point lead Mr Turnbull enjoyed on that measure after he ousted Tony Abbott in September 2015.
Granted, Mr Turnbull has been preoccupied with trying to shore up his job.
Having been denied by voters the strong mandate he needed, the Prime Minister has had to appease internal rivals on his Right. That's involved dumping sensible climate change policy for the electricity sector; putting his weight behind so-called clean coal measures; vilifying renewables; defending penalty rate cuts; and becoming a convert to culture warrior battles over free speech.
Having failed to get the same-sex marriage plebiscite through the parliament, he has looked weak.
Having an economy with record low interest rates has not helped Treasurer Scott Morrison sell his vision for jobs growth and a company tax cut. The Fairfax Ipsos poll shows 44 per cent support company tax cuts over a decade, but 39 per cent remain opposed. If the policy was split to prioritise tax relief for smaller businesses, it's fair to assume support would be much stronger.
Similarly, 35 per cent of respondents still think tax breaks for investors should be reduced, even after Mr Turnbull's scare campaign against negative gearing limits.
Having endured a ministerial resignation over expenses, along with the threat of coalition MPs crossing the floor on a bank commission, the air of dysfunction has also descended, reducing the time for Prime Ministerial vision.
The Herald believes Mr Turnbull's Snowy 2.0 gesture to provide a potential clean energy back-up to the electricity grid was a step in the right direction. But if it won support among the public, then that was fleeting.
The Coalition primary vote is now 33 per cent. That's 5 points below the depths Mr Abbott plumbed before Mr Turnbull invoked poor polling as a reason to dump him. The 33 per cent is also 9 points below his government's near-death election performance last July. By contrast, the primary vote for Labor – almost in spite of Mr Shorten - has risen 4 points in a few months to be just 1 point shy of the 35 per cent it secured at the election.
On a two-party preferred basis, Labor leads 55-45 based on preference flows from the 2016 election. That's the worst 2PP result for the Turnbull government.
Many will argue that the Prime Minister deserves some empathy because he has been burdened by state problems as well.
In South Australia the coalition led Labor on primary vote 39-23 in the Fairfax Ipsos poll of federal voting intentions in November. This month the coalition is trailing labor 30-36. Even with the 9.1 per cent margin of error, the Turnbull government's attacks on the Weatherill government look to have backfired.
The Liberal preference deal with One Nation in Western Australia helped oust the Barnett government but also looks to have smashed the federal coalition's polling support there, from a 43-22 lead on primary vote in November to trailing 36-37 in March. Even with the large margin of error, the Liberals are in trouble out West.
The coalition is struggling in Queensland too. Support for others – in effect Pauline Hanson's One Nation – has surged 5 points to 26 per cent in her home state with the LNP down 1 point to 30.
Nationally the rise of the Greens and "others" has been extended for another month, sitting at 27 per cent versus the average of 22-24 per cent over many years.
Voters are still not happy, Malcolm.
With one parliamentary sitting week before the pre-budget break, Mr Turnbull should put the Right-appeasing measures behind him, bank any savings from compromises with the Senate, and get on with offering better policies on education, health and housing affordability.