Malcolm Turnbull is right. His government was returned to office in the election last July. It was a victory … but a pyrrhic one.
The margin was slim – a net loss of 14 seats for a one-seat majority in the lower house. The Senate outcome was hardly the boost the Prime Minister might have wanted after calling a double dissolution election.
Malcolm Turnbull cautioned his party against a drift to the right.Credit: Paul Jeffers
As a result, Mr Turnbull's hold on the Liberal leadership was weakened.
From a position of strength as long-time would-be challenger to Tony Abbott, and approval ratings of 69 per cent just after he won the September 2015 leadership contest, Mr Turnbull has struggled. If the Fairfax-Ipsos opinion polling is accurate, as Prime Minister he has lost the support of about 40 per cent of people, with his approval rating now at 40 per cent.
He gave ground to the right just to oust Mr Abbott and has had to give more – or be overly cautious – just to keep his job. That's exposed Mr Turnbull to claims he is a do-nothing leader who has sold out to the right on so many issues that people have lost interest in what he says.
Now Andrew Robb's review of the Liberals' disappointing 2016 election performance has reminded everyone that the organisation's finances are in bad shape, meaning it struggled to counter the Labor messages backed by wealthy unions and GetUp!. Mr Turnbull even had to spend $1.75 million of his own money on the campaign.
Under Mr Abbott's watch policy development had stalled, especially on the big economic and fiscal reform agenda most expect from a coalition government. Redressing that took up much of Mr Turnbull's pre-election time when, according to former trade minister Mr Robb, the party should have been united and focused on beating Labor.
"The day after an election, the next campaign starts," Mr Robb said on Friday.
But the Prime Minister and the Liberal Party made a rod for their own backs under Mr Abbott. His negative tactics, willingness to dump important reform measures when pushed and the crash or crash through approach to the 2014-15 budget have burdened Mr Turnbull.
When attacked by Labor during the campaign for allegedly wanting to dismantle Medicare, the government had little to offer in response because it had not found a convincing positive narrative beyond "innovation" and "jobs and growth" – both of which depended on the Senate backing $50 billion of tax cuts for mostly big business.
The campaign review led by Mr Robb, with help from former NSW Liberal premier Barry O'Farrell, Queensland division general secretary Carol Cashman and former federal minister Chris Ellison, criticises the campaign tactics under federal director and well-regarded loyalist Tony Nutt. He quit this week, leaving a large gap in planning for the next election.
At least the government has achieved passage of the building watchdog legislation and a tax cut for small business.
But Mr Abbott says he might stick around and contest the next poll. That means the party war between moderates and conservative Abbott backers will keep playing out, as it did in state byelections on the weekend, where the Liberals copped big swings against them in the heartlands of North Shore and Manly, though they managed to retain the seats.
Even more worrying for Mr Turnbull, Immigration Minister Peter Dutton, seen as the Tony Abbott in waiting, reminded the Prime Minister this week that poor opinion polling was the justification for his taking the leadership and opinion polling could just as easily be a reason for him to lose it.
Voters must be wondering what Liberal Party they voted for: the one they thought Mr Turnbull could lead based on his principles; or the Abbott-lite Turnbull one they got.
Making finances a priority and taking steps to make Liberals' campaign strategies more agile and responsive through greater use of social media, data and technology as recommended in the Robb report, are necessary, but they won't be sufficient.
All the while, treasurer Scott Morrison is preparing a budget that will either find an elusive economic story or push more disenchanted voters into the arms of Bill Shorten, on the grounds that even if they don't like the Labor leader much, at least he's not more of the same.
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