A nation’s agony is written on Niman’s young face. The three-year-old Somali boy winces as he’s placed in a harness to be weighed by medical staff in the dusty Horn of Africa town of Hargeisa. The scales show he’s less than half the normal weight of a child his age after being ravaged by malnutrition and illness.
He is just one of more than 6 million people – half of Somalia’s population – who are suffering in the country’s hunger emergency. The United Nations warns almost a million Somali children will be acutely malnourished this year, including 185,000 who could perish soon if they do not receive urgent medical treatment.
It’s just six years since famine devastated Somalia but, as Niman’s distress illustrates, the country is again on the brink after three years of drought.
Nirman’s mother and grandparents made the journey from their village to the Hargeisa Group Hospital because they knew it was the only hope for their stricken boy. It has the only stabilisation centre for severely malnourished children in Hargeisa, capital of the breakaway republic of Somaliland.
“Our animals are dying and our food and water is scarce,” says Niman’s mother, Faadumo Hussein. “And this drought has now made my children sick.” Her 11-month-old son Burkhad was also admitted to the centre with severe malnutrition. Five children died here in the previous week.
During the last famine in Somalia, in 2011, more than a quarter of a million people died, but local aid workers fear this crisis will be even worse. The drought is more widespread than six years ago and, this time, Somalia is not alone. Famine has already been declared in parts of South Sudan and the hunger crisis there is likely to worsen substantially. Northern Nigeria and Yemen also face the imminent threat of famine.
Stephen O’Brien, the UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, told the UN Security Council in New York in March that the world was facing the biggest humanitarian crisis since World War II. He warned more than 20 million lives were at stake and without coordinated global efforts “people will simply starve to death” and “many more will suffer and die from disease”.
O’Brien said $US4.4 billion ($5.8 billion) was needed for all four affected countries by July “to avert a catastrophe”. By mid-March, only a fraction ($US429 million) has been forthcoming, even though the needs on the ground are increasingly dire.
Elhadj As Sy, Secretary General of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, was in Somalia in 2011 when 260,000 people died, including countless children. “The situation we are seeing now – in Somalia, as well as Nigeria, South Sudan, and even parts of Kenya and Ethiopia – has all the hallmarks of similar catastrophe,” he says. “The message is simple. We need investment now, on a massive scale, to avert further death and suffering.”
There are disturbing parallels to when Somalia last succumbed to famine. As in 2011, livestock numbers have been devastated – authorities in Somaliland say the drought has killed at least 80 per cent of the region's farm animals. Food prices have surged and many people have been forced to leave their homes in search of food and water for their animals and themselves. This flow of “distress migration” is likely to grow in coming months.
Rapid population growth has also left the region more vulnerable to food shortages, with Somalia having the second highest total fertility rate in the world (6.5 children born per woman) according to World Bank estimates.
Cases of serious disease – including cholera, diarrhoea and measles, which tend to be the most lethal killers during a famine – are on the rise, and authorities have already confirmed scores of “starvation deaths” in Somaliland.
For Somalia to have two famines in six years raises serious questions about future food security in the Horn of Africa region.
Entrenched civil conflicts and poor governance have contributed to the emergencies now playing out. But there’s also growing concern about the role of climate change.
There have been repeated food shortages in the Horn of Africa region over the past decade and an apparent trend towards weather extremes. Parts of the Horn of Africa are already extremely arid and climate change might mean they become even dryer over time. Droughts like the one now crippling Somalia could become more frequent in the region.
A report by aid agency Oxfam after the last Somalian famine said the experience of local communities is that seasons are changing and drought frequency is increasing. “Whilst there is still uncertainty concerning the exact impact of climate change in this region, it is clear that temperatures will continue to increase and rainfall patterns change,” the Oxfam report said. “This will have significant impacts on food security.”
Another parallel with 2011 is the world’s tardy response to the deepening emergency. Aid agencies have been warning about the worsening food emergencies in Somalia, South Sudan, Yemen and Nigeria for months. But they come at time when the global humanitarian system is under huge strain. Across the world, a record 70 million people are estimated to need emergency food aid in 2017, meaning global competition for humanitarian resources is fierce.
The UN estimates it will need a record $US22.5 billion to respond to global emergencies this year, nearly three times more than it required in 2011. Australia has provided $34 million in response to the food crises in Somalia and South Sudan in 2017. International aid agencies, such as the Red Cross, are scaling up their response to the multiple food emergencies.
But so far the contributions made by wealthy donor nations have fallen way short. And there are fears some donors, notably the US, will significantly cut their aid budget this year.
Somalia’s villagers will have to hope the rains don’t fail again.
Matt Wade was supported by the Australian Red Cross to report from Somalia. Donations can be made to Australian Red Cross, UNHCR Australia and Oxfam.
Words: Matt Wade Photos: Peter Caton Art Director: Dionne Gain Photo editor: Daniel Adams Editors: Aparna Khopkar, Matt Teffer