Comment
  1. Home
  2. Comment
  3. View from the Street
COMMENT
Save
Print
License article

Malcolm Turnbull should call a free vote on same-sex marriage to save his job

A free vote on marriage equality could prove Malcolm's still got some principles left.

Thus far it's been a shocker of a 2017 for the government of Malcolm Turnbull.

They've had expenses scandals. A high profile ministerial resignation. The Centrelink robo-debt debacle. An embarrassingly leaked phonecall with Donald Trump. A shaky-as-hell refugee swap. Lifting the debt ceiling. And a government senator hijacked the first day of Parliament by quitting the Liberals. It's been a storied five weeks, really.

Up Next

Skytrain's gantries an elegant solution

null
Video duration
00:41

More National News Videos

null
Video duration
01:01

Malcolm Turnbull's crucial fortnight
null
Video duration
00:41

Skytrain's gantries an elegant solution
null
Video duration
00:56

Xenophon negotiates $100m for advanced ...
null
Video duration
01:05

What are the government's budget ...
null
Video duration
01:56

Bill Shorten criticises education cuts
null
Video duration
00:25

Fifield: TV licence fees are from a ...
More videos

Malcolm Turnbull's crucial fortnight

He's starting the year with poor polling numbers, so Malcolm Turnbull needs some wins as parliament resumes, says Mark Kenny.

And now the thorny subject of same-sex marriage has risen again, following the well-deserved failure of the legally unnecessary $160 million non-binding plebiscite last year. 

First up came the news that a group of moderate figures within the party are reportedly working on a push for a free vote - news which, predictably, angered the conservative old guard. 

In the meantime the government's polls remain in safe election-losing territory, yet Turnbull's still ahead of Labor's Bill Shorten in terms of preferred prime minister. People want to like the guy.

So how might he seek to unravel this knot?

Advertisement

Call for a free vote on same sex marriage.

It'd be a move popular with the public - about 72 per cent of Australians support it, with a sizeable amount of the remainder not caring one way or the other. And a majority of voters would prefer it was a parliamentary vote than a plebiscite. 

And sure, it'll go down really, really badly inside certain sections of the Coalition - but it's a fight that Turnbull could win, and he needs a victory right now.

The old guard conservatives will scream blue murder and insist that Turnbull is letting down the party's base by abandoning the plebiscite, but y'know, they're doing that already. It's not like he can lose the support of Abbott and his surrogates any more than he already has done - why not actually give them something to properly sulk about? And while LNP MP George Christensen might believe that the answer is for the government to get more conservative, they've spent the last four years doing exactly that and the benefits are seemingly yet to kick in.

It's not a foregone conclusion that the more reality-aware conservatives in the Liberals would have a problem with a free vote either. After all, freedom to marry is an issue of personal liberty.

More pragmatically, anyone in the party who'd prefer retaining power would at the very least like to neutralise marriage equality as an issue. It's not going away, so why not be done with it while getting some credit in the bargain?

It's important to note that technically calling for a free vote would put the PM in breach of the Coalition agreement he signed when he ousted Tony Abbott, in which he promised the Nationals their entire wishlist including some totemic issues such as not bringing in any sort of emissions trading or considering a path to legalising same sex marriage.

And that should be that; but Turnbull could still do what he should have done a year ago when he was still polling strongly, and call their bluff. 

Sure, the Nationals could respond by withdrawing their support for Turnbull and forcing a leadership spat, or threaten to split from the Coalition altogether (which isn't possible in Queensland without a lot of legal finagling to dissolve the LNP). They could do that… if they want to reduce their national resources right ahead of the WA and QLD state elections where they're already under pressure from Labor and the ascendent One Nation. 

From a purely strategic point of view a successful free vote on same sex marriage would also rob Labor of an obvious campaigning plank, not to mention take away what would be a historical victory when they eventually take government. 

Also, it would vindicate the enduring perception that there's still a principled leader in Turnbull, somewhere, beneath all the new rhetoric about clean coal and the risks of renewable energy. 

If Malcolm's going to survive the year, he needs to show the party they're better off with him than without. Clearly waiting for Australia to fall back in love with him hasn't worked: it's time to take some risks.

And going by the polls, same-sex marriage would be the safest risk of all. 

The new welcome-back-parliament episode of The Double Disillusionists podcast is up, with Andrew P Street, Dom Knight and special guest Dee Madigan

93 comments

Comment are now closed