NSW by-elections in Gosford, Manly and North Shore a real test for Gladys Berejiklian
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When the Liberal Party lost the southern Sydney seat of Miranda in a by-election in October 2013, politicians on both sides were shocked.
Key points:
- Glady's Berejiklian faces a litmus test as NSW Premier this Saturday when three by-elections are held
- All eyes will be on the seat of North Shore, where the Liberal party is bracing for a backlash
- Labor are expected to hold Gosford, and the Government is likely to keep Manly
It was two years into a new government and then-Premier Barry O'Farrell was perceived to be "going well".
After 16 years of Labor — the last few years disastrous — it seemed unimaginable that the Coalition could be on the nose.
Labor's Barry Collier won the seat with a 55 per cent two-party preferred vote after the biggest swing in NSW history.
This weekend's by-elections in the seats of Gosford, Manly and North Shore come after a tumultuous 2016 for the Government.
There is a new Premier promising to tackle the big issues facing New South Wales so things should be looking up.
Labor is expected to retain Gosford and the Liberals should hold onto Manly and North Shore.
But there could also be big swings, particularly in the North Shore seat where the controversial forced council amalgamations policy is unpopular and has a number of independents campaigning against it.
'If we lose North Shore, that's on Gladys'
The reason these by-elections are more significant than others is because they are being held just three months after Gladys Berejiklian became Premier.
That means they are her first popularity test.
The seat that most people are watching is North Shore. The seat was held by independents between 1981 and 1991, but it is now a blue ribbon location for the Liberals.
If they lose it, there will be an inquisition.
One senior Liberal said: "If we lose Manly that's on Mike Baird, if we lose North Shore that's on Gladys."
What does Antony Green say?
At the 2015 state election, the Liberal first preference vote was 58 per cent.
Antony Green predicts they can afford a 15 per cent swing against them in North Shore.
"There are three independents running plus one Greens candidate and this will work in the Liberal Party's favour as it will split the vote," he said.
In Liberal ranks, there is an expectation the party will hang on to the seat, although some people on the ground at pre-poll booths have told the ABC the anti-council merger feedback is strong.
The Premier is confident and remains upbeat. She told the partyroom last week "winning by one vote is still a win".
An easy win would be a relief for the Premier in North Shore, meaning she could continue with the push to merge councils.
A loss or a tight result is a sign that things dramatically need to change course for the coalition to win in 2019.
Topics: elections, government-and-politics, gosford-2250, manly-2095, nsw
