By Linda Pearce
So, gasp, the Diamond-rich Magpies have lost three of their first five games, or exactly three more than many supposed netball sages had predicted. Among them, Rob Wright, the dual NSW Swifts grand final coach, who is concerned, very concerned, about the potential ramifications for Sunday's round six encounter at Hisense Arena.
"It's a bit scary. I still think with the group they've got you would expect that they should be in the grand final," said Wright, noting Collingwood's powerful first three quarters against the Thunderbirds' a fortnight ago, which counts as the highlight of their scratchy, patchy, season so far.
Madi Robinson poses for a selfie with fans.Credit: Getty Images
"They just showed absolutely how dominant they can be. Someone's going to pay a big price and I'm hoping it's not us! Obviously they've gone loss, win, loss, win, loss, so on that basis the more time they spend together they're going to be incredibly hard to stop."
So far, Wright believes, the issue has been the lack of a collective pre-season. "Any new team, regardless of your superstars – and they've got plenty of them – needs time to gel, and the reality is those players have all come from everywhere so they haven't had time together, and then they lost them to the Diamonds' tour.
"So l feel like they just haven't had enough time yet, and that's the worry for the competition, because I just expect they will continue to get better and better and it could be quite scary."
Wright is a realist. He said he never expected his rebuilding Swifts, who lost half their list during the open-slather recruiting that followed the ANZ Championship's dismantling – including bookends Sharni Layton and Caitlin Thwaites to the Pies, and veterans Kim Green and Susan Pettit to local rivals the Giants – to make the top four this soon. And nothing he has seen in a 1-3-1 start that included a last-gasp draw with the Vixens on their previous trip to Melbourne has inspired a change of heart.
Instead, Wright is still boldly predicting – "I'll go out on a limb," he laughs – a Giants-Magpies decider, while believing that a finish just outside the top four would count as a fine result for a young Swifts' line-up that is more about the 2019 season than this one, in which he has been particularly impressed with internationals Sam Wallace and Helen Housby, his young defensive circle and 50-game former Thunderbird Maddy Proud.
"It's an exciting challenge, but it's tough, don't get me wrong, because we literally restarted," Wright said. "Even the ones we (kept), two of them had some experience, but Maddy Turner's now our most experienced defender and she's had one season. I took a really long-term view with this team – that don't expect miracles in the short term, cos they're not gonna happen."
There are differences, but also similarities, he believes, with the 2015 Melbourne Vixens, who lost key players – including champion midcourter Madi Robinson – to injuries, and missed the finals that season and the next, but are now growing with experience and familiarity, and entered round six in equal second place behind only their Saturday night opponent, the unbeaten Giants.
Collingwood is another story altogether, with individual stars such as captain Robinson (heading the league for goal assists), her joint deputy Layton (on top of the intercepts count) and Thwaites (most goals from long-range) still working on their combinations and cohesion. Wright was sad to lose the latter pair, had hoped they would be stay Swifts "forever", while begrudging neither the financially lucrative chance to return home.
Both teams are coming off losses – the Pies, away, in the final minutes fellow newbies the Sunshine Coast Lightning, and the Swifts in a major letdown against the previously-winless West Coast Fever in Perth. Until then, Wright believed his group was ahead of where he had thought.
It's seemingly no coincidence that consecutive defeats have coincided with Housby's thumb dislocation; the goal attack to be given maximum time to prove herself ready for this one. The 22-year-old is already a key member of a new-look roster whose coach understands that with youth will come inconsistency, while preparing to face the all-new Magpies facing another set of issues tipped to be more temporary.