A cyclone the size of Debbie could have catastrophic consequences on the Gold Coast, new modelling has shown, as climate change pushes cyclones further south and puts tens of billions of dollars worth of infrastructure at risk.
Actuaries, who predict and model scenarios for banks and insurers, have warned properties could become "uninsurable" as premiums rise to meet environmental challenges. Debbie devastated northern Queensland and swept floods into NSW which caused $1 billion in damage, forced 30,000 people to evacuate and took two lives.
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Cyclone Debbie aftermath forces schools to close
Queensland Deputy Premier Jackie Trad has announced the closure of all schools, including private and Catholic, ahead of more turbulent weather predicted in Queensland in the aftermath of Cyclone Debbie.
Under modelling compiled by Deloitte's principal actuary Sharanjit Paddam and James Cook University, a shift in the cyclone-prone region of just three degrees would cause winds in excess of 260km/h to hit the Gold Coast and stretch as far as Brisbane, where many homes and towers do not meet cyclonic safety standards.
The "sting in the tail" of ex-Cyclone Debbie battered the Gold Coast this week with winds half as strong as those that hit Bowen and Proserpine, along with torrential downpours.
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It comes a month after one of the nation's chief financial regulators, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, warned that banks and insurers must "rise to the challenge" of climate change and can no longer continue to view it "within a purely ethical or environmental frame".
APRA executive board member Geoff Summerhayes said in February this was "no longer the case", as Europe's regulators lead the world on climate change risk modelling.
"Some climate risks are distinctly 'financial' in nature. Many of these risks were foreseeable, material and actionable now," he said.
"If you're an investor and you're not already asking questions about how the companies you invest in approach these issues – perhaps you should be."
For the first time this year the big four banks, all the major insurers and super funds have been brought together to discuss how to finance protection from climate change, along with a separate business adaptation network that includes construction giants Lendlease and Stockland.
Under Mr Paddam's analysis, the risk could push up insurance premiums by as much as 250 per cent, making some buildings "uninsurable".
"Cyclones need a certain temperature to continue," he said. "As temperatures rise by 2 degrees they will come further south."
He said building standards for protection against cyclones do not go all the way down to south-east Queensland according to Australian wind zone classifications.
Mr Paddam said the safety standards in place are about protecting lives, not about making sure buildings don't suffer damage.
"Unless we do something now the problem will get worse over time," he said, foreshadowing that the real risk to the area is likely to come in the next 70 years.
Mara Bun, the former CEO of Green Cross Australia and the chairman of the board of the Gold Coast Waterways Authority, said while the area was making significant inroads through developing protective barriers like seawalls there was a lot of work to be done
"The last time a cyclone hit in 1967, the population was 40,000, now we have more than 550,000," she said.
"A lot of these people came here for the weather, they aren't hardened souls that are used to major weather events like Cairns.
"People don't realise the Gold Coast is the second most exposed place in the world behind Fort Lauderdale in Florida because of the infrastructure and hundreds of canals," she said, an assessment backed up by global reinsurance giant Munich Re.
"The big concern that we have is that a cyclone tracks south through Moreton Bay and a very significant surge will come through all the islands of the Marine Park.
"That kind of event is really the extreme risk one and we don't known how the canals would stand up."
Despite the threat, Queensland Deputy Premier Jeff Seeney intervened to force Moreton Bay Regional Council to remove any reference to sea level rises from its regional plan last year.
A spokeswoman for Gold Coast council said the government had identified the impact of climate change on cyclonic activities.
"Council's Disaster Coordination Centre is continuously monitoring and assessing cyclonic activities to ensure that our city is well prepared," she said.