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The Brexit clock has started ticking - what to expect next

On Wednesday, British Prime Minister Theresa May has pulled the trigger on one of Britain's most significant political experiments in its modern history – leaving the European Union.

A formal letter signed by Mrs May was handed to the President of the European Council Donald Tusk in Brussels triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which allows for a country's exit from the block. It sets up two years of negotiation of the terms of Britain's exit. 

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Sorrow from Tusk over Brexit notification

The European Council President receives the letter of notice of the UK's intention to leave the European Union.

Here is what to expect next: 

2017

Within 48 hours of receipt of the Mrs May's letter, the European Commission is expected to issue "draft negotiation guidelines", which will be sent to the 27 remaining states.

March 30: A white paper will be produced on the Great Repeal Bill - the legislation that will turn more than 40 years of EU regulations into domestic laws.

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April 29: An extraordinary European Council summit of the remaining 27 states will be held to agree a mandate for chief negotiator Michel Barnier and clear the way for talks to begin in earnest in May.

May 4: Local government elections in England, Wales and Scotland will give voters a first opportunity to pass judgment on Mrs May's handling of Brexit negotiations.

May 7: A new president will be elected in France. Victory for the National Front's Marine le Pen could throw the European side into disarray by raising the prospect that France too will quit the EU. A win for Emmanuel Macron or Francois Fillon may also affect the EU27's negotiating stance.

September 24: German federal elections could see Angela Merkel replaced as Chancellor by former European Parliament president and staunch federalist Martin Schulz, who once called for the creation of a "genuine European Government".

2018

May: English local government elections.

October: This is the target date Mr Barnier has set for concluding withdrawal negotiations, in order to allow time for them to be ratified before the end of the two-year Article 50 deadline.

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has said she wants a second referendum on Scottish independence after the terms of the deal are known and before Brexit takes effect in the spring of 2019.

Winter 2018/19: Once a deal is concluded between the Commission and the UK, it will go back to the member states of the EU for approval by the remaining states.

2019

March 29: Two years after the invocation of Article 50, the UK ceases to be a member of the EU and is no longer subject to its treaties, whether or not a withdrawal agreement has been reached.

This date can be extended for further negotiations by agreement between all member states.

May: European Parliament elections will take place without the UK.

2020

May 7: Scheduled date for the first UK general election following Brexit.

But can the UK change its mind?

It's unclear, because Article 50 has never been invoked before. Lawyers on both sides in the legal battle through the courts have said once Article 50 has been invoked it is irrevocable. But Lord Kerr, the diplomat who drafted the measure, has suggested a country could change its mind. Mr Tusk has also indicated that abandoning Brexit could be an option, But Mrs May said there is no turning back.

AP

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