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Fairfax-Ipsos poll: Turnbull government's so-called poll bounce was short-lived

Peter Hartcher

When Malcolm Turnbull invoked the sacred scripture of Aussie nation building a couple of weeks ago, it was supposed to be politically a sure thing.

By announcing that the government would build an extension of the Snowy Mountains Scheme, he was doing more than helping to fix the national energy supply

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Snowy Hydro's expansion plan

At this stage it's only a feasibility study, but Malcolm Turnbull has already pronounced it "a game changer". Courtesy ABC News 24.

The Snowy for a new generation – dubbed Snowy 2.0 – would surely stir the imagination of a listless electorate.

"So this is a game-changing announcement," said Environment and Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg. He even resorted to the "i" word. It was "iconic", he said, and "I think it should be welcomed by all Australians".

An ANU political scientist, Ian McAllister, doubted it would make a difference. "I don't think people care," he told me at the time. "I think people have stopped listening."

But for a moment it seemed the Coalition might have been right and McAllister wrong. To much political and media excitment, a Newspoll last week showed a lift in the Turnbull government's share of the vote. 

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The Coalition's primary vote was up by 3 percentage points, and so was its two-party preferred share. 

A new conventional wisdom was born: the government had finally hit upon the magic elixir. From leading by 55 per cent to 45, Labor was now ahead by just 52 to 48. The government was on a roll!

It turned out to be an extremely short roll. More a wobble, a vibration without moving. 

Today's Fairfax-Ipsos poll finds that Labor is ahead by 55 to 45, the status quo ante restored. Incidentally, an Essential poll published a day after Newspoll converged with the Fairfax-Ipsos poll on a result of 55 to 45.

McAllister, custodian of the Australian Election Survey that has been interviewing voters after elections for 45 years, seems to be vindicated. He said the people's scepticism of Turnbull was too deep to be retrieved so readily.

"It reminds me of late Gillard, where it didn't matter what she said, nobody was listening," McAllister said.  

Turnbull's situation is not so precarious; there is no compelling alternative leader ready to challenge him.

And it may be some consolation for Turnbull that it's not just about him: "Trust in politicians is at its lowest at any time since we started surveying it, all the way back to 1969."

While Labor is consistently ahead, Bill Shorten's personal approval numbers are nonetheless worse than the Prime Minister's. 

If Turnbull is miscast as the Man from Snowy River, he still has time to avoid the fate of another Banjo Patterson character, the captain of the Geebung Polo Club. 

The Man from Snowy River made a daring dash against impossible odds to recover the runaway mob. As for the Geebung polo captain: 

"For he meant to make an effort to get victory to his side;

So he struck at goal – and missed it – then he tumbled off and died."

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