Snapshot of a jaded, fed-up electorate

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten and Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull face a nation divided on hot-button policy issues.
Opposition Leader Bill Shorten and Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull face a nation divided on hot-button policy issues. Alex Ellinghausen

If ever there was a poll to capture the sullen, fed-up nature of the electorate this has got to be it.

It's not just that the latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll captures the four-month decline of the Coalition's fortunes since the end of last year, but it seems that voters are utterly underwhelmed and unpersuaded by any of the policy discussions on offer.

The nicest thing you can say about the poll – from the perspective of the Turnbull government's agenda – is that more people support a cut in company tax over the next decade. But this is still a minority of voters: just 44 per cent. The issue is most strongly supported by Coalition voters, but the net support is still only 48 per cent among this group.

Penalty rates? Well, a healthy 63 per cent of voters believe the reduction in penalty rates will make no difference to the number of businesses choosing to open on Sundays and public holidays. Even among Coalition voters 52 per cent believe it won't make a difference.

Voters are unconvinced that cutting penalty rates will create more cafe jobs and split on company tax cuts, with ...
Voters are unconvinced that cutting penalty rates will create more cafe jobs and split on company tax cuts, with slightly more in favour than against. Joe Castro

Property

Even in the supposedly hot-button area of property taxation and housing affordability, views are split and unconvinced with the biggest proportion of voters (40 per cent) thinking the current regime should stay in place. Only 35 per cent of voters think the concessions should be reduced.

The Ipsos figures are much worse for the government in two party preferred terms than the bounce it received in the last Newspoll a week ago (which narrowed the gap to 48/52 instead of the Ipsos 45/55) and in terms of a much softer primary vote for the Coalition (33 per cent compared to the improved 37 per cent in Newspoll).

Essential also gave the Coalition a 37 per cent primary vote last week but still split the two party preferred vote 45/55.

But the leadership figures tell roughly the same story as Newspoll: despite more voters now disapproving of the Prime Minister's performance than approving it, Malcolm Turnbull still leads Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister by a significant margin (45/33 compared to 43/29 in Newspoll).

Malcolm Turnbull is now recording his lowest net approval rating (at minus 8 points) since he became Prime Minister. But Bill Shorten's stocks have been declining too: to minus 18 (down 2 points since November).

No wonder so many MPs keep desperately hoping the Prime Minister can find "the" issue which might galvanise voters.

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