Ange Postecoglou likes living on the edge. No, let me re-phrase that. He loves it. So he's got what he wished for. A loss to United Arab Emirates in Sydney, and the prospect of the Socceroos missing out on the World Cup is better than real. It's not Uruguay, or Argentina, or Scotland, but it feels like it. The pressure pot is boiling. Let's see if anyone gets burned.
Four draws in a row have brought us to this. Three of those on the road. With three of the final four qualifiers at home, it's not terminal. But lose to the UAE, and it's life support. Plenty of people are saying Postecoglou has brought this on himself through his selections, his tactical tweaks, and his unflinching commitment to attacking football irrespective of the opposition, the situation, or the conditions. Truth is, it's not just about the coach. The issues are much broader than that.
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Socceroos draw with Iraq
The Socceroos have escaped with a 1-1 draw against Iraq in Tehran to leave their World Cup qualification hopes in the balance.
Let's focus on the detail first. Last week's draw against Iraq on a pudding pitch in Tehran has excited the commentariat, and pushed the doomsday scenarios. Predictable. Understandable.
But important points: The pitch wasn't a factor. It was playable. Did Iraq opt to go long because of it? Perhaps. But the Iraqi tactics were clear from the start, so the question was of one of adjustment. Postecoglou chose the game to unveil his new 3-4-3 formation, springing it on his players as much as anyone else. Inherent in his thinking, you'd imagine, was that his defence would control the air. Wrong.
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The Socceroos were destroyed aerially by Mohanad Abdulraheem, and that's where most of the problems lay. Abdulraheem bossed Mark Milligan, and the channels in behind – left there by the absence of fullbacks – were exploited by Dhurgham Ismael and Amjed Kalaf, who feasted on the flick-ons. Postecoglou might have adjusted by swapping Milligan with Mile Jedinak, or bringing on a fullback to make a back four, but didn't. It could have been worse.
Then there's the box midfield, designed partly to offer cover for the defence, but mostly to add numbers on the ball. Good idea in the context of the available talent, but the execution was patchy. When Australia lost the ball, the confusion for players like Massimo Luongo and Jackson Irvine was clear. Who do we track? Where? Some coaches focus on playing without the ball. Postecoglou never has, and never will.
None of this damns Postecoglou's new formation. But there's little doubt the timing was high-risk. Those expecting him to pull his horns in against their UAE will be disappointed. It's not his style. In the fallout of the Iraq draw, his message has been unequivocal. What others see as risks, he sees as common sense. "It's who I am." There's been a subtle dig at his predecessors, Holgier Osieck and Pim Verbeek, who ground out results and bored most of us to death in the process. Who wants to go back to that?
Truth is, the Socceroos are on a path with Postecoglou which won't deviate. Should there be room for the occasional pragmatism? Maybe. But there won't be.
Signposting the journey of discovery is the changing face of Asian football. It's better, it's deeper, and it's usually funded by much bigger pockets. Those stressing about the result in Tehran need to appreciate some perspective. Iraq, a nation of extraordinary natural talent and a fantastic fighting spirit, are now almost certain to miss out on the World Cup again. Despite pushing the Socceroos, again. Who's got the better players? Lineball.
Look around the final qualifying groups, and what do you see? Qatar, a nation that funded a plan to make the 2018 World Cup at least eight years ago, but will miss out. Now having to deal with the embarrassment of becoming the first nation to host a World Cup without having ever qualified for it. China, a nation that has spent even more money on football in the past decade, and despite last week's famous win over South Korea, also won't be going to Russia. The Koreans are under pressure to qualify from both Syria (yes, amazing isn't it?) and Uzbekistan. Japan have lost at home to UAE. Thailand have taken a point off Australia. Saudi Arabia have woken from a two-decades slumber. UAE have become arguably the most stylish team in Asia.
So why should Socceroos fans expect an easy ride? Is the level of expectation realistic, internally and externally? Not really. Asian football has improved – although not as much as the boosters suggest – and Australian football has plateaued. That's why qualifying might have to be done the hard way.
Here's the unvarnished truth. This is an average generation of talent. A group of players who over-achieved in winning the Asian Cup is now being tested by the hard slog of qualifying. Good. If they get where Postecoglou wants them to be, we'll all be better for the experience. But it's got to start against UAE.