The Weather Man

Heavy Rain leads to more extensive flood watch NE NSW

Falls from 9am to Middayin and around Coffs Harbour

Sawtell 173mm

Perry Drive 110

Red Hill 114

Bray St 92

Gliniffer 120

Bellingen 94

Much of the remainder of Coffs Suburbs recording between 78mm to 100mm

 

FLOOD WATCH FOR THE RICHMOND-WILSONS, ORARA, COFFS COAST, BELLINGER, NAMBUCCA, MACLEAY AND HASTINGS RIVER VALLEYS

Issued at 10:36 am EDT on Wednesday 15 March 2017

Note: This Flood Watch provides early advice for possible future flooding along all rivers, creeks and overland flow paths within a nominated valley [See note below].

A low pressure trough will deepen off the northern New South Wales coast on Wednesday and persist into the weekend, with the potential for significant rainfall totals to build up in the northeast by the end of the week.

This rainfall has the potential to cause flooding to develop in the following river valleys from Wednesday onwards:

1. Richmond-Wilsons - minor flooding

2. Orara - minor flooding

3. Coffs Coast - minor flooding

4. Bellinger - minor to moderate flooding

5. Nambucca - minor to moderate flooding

6. Macleay - minor flooding

7. Hastings - minor to moderate flooding

Minor flood warning is current for the Brunswick river valley.

NSW Severe Weather Warning for Heavy Rainfall

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
New South Wales

 TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING

for HEAVY RAINFALL

For people in the
Northern Rivers and parts of the
Mid North Coast and
Northern Tablelands Forecast Districts.

Issued at 12:26 pm Wednesday, 15 March 2017.

HEAVY RAINFALL INCLUDING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY FALLS WITH THUNDERSTORMS

SYNOPTIC SITUATION:
A low pressure trough is deepening offshore from the New South Wales north coast.

A band of HEAVY RAIN, including LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN associated with embedded thunderstorms, is likely to cause FLASH FLOODING in:
Northern Rivers, northern parts of Mid North Coast and in eastern parts of Northern Tablelands.

Widespread 24 hour totals in excess of 100 mm are likely, with locally much higher falls with embedded thunderstorms.

Currently the heaviest falls are occurring in the Coffs Harbour Area. Almost 150 mm have fallen in the last three hours at Sawtell, and 100 mm have been recorded in the last three hours in the western suburbs of Coff Harbour.

Heavy falls are also currently occuring at Yamba, which has recorded 87 mm since 9 am.

Locations which may be affected include Lismore, Grafton, Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie, Yamba, Maclean, Woolgoolga, Sawtell and Dorrigo.

Be part of something beautiful... Bureau calls for Australian Weather Calendar 2018 entries

Bureau calls for Australian Weather Calendar 2018 entries

The Bureau of Meteorology's Capture the Weather photo competition gives entrants the chance to feature in the 2018 edition of the iconic Australian Weather Calendar.

This year, judges will be on the hunt for 13 unique images that capture Australian weather in a dramatic, captivating or creative setting. Interesting interpretations of frost, clouds, rainbows or sunshine have been the top picks in previous years.

The competition closes on 31 March 2017, giving amateur and professional photographers one more month to scour the Australian countryside for the perfect cloud formation, rainbow or lightning strike and capture the moment to share with the world.

Winners could have their image displayed in homes across Australia and overseas as part of a weather calendar tradition that has spanned more than 30 years.

CEO and Director of Meteorology Dr Andrew Johnson is looking forward to seeing images submitted for the 2018 calendar, published jointly by the Bureau and the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. 

"We encourage photographers to send in work showcasing the diversity of Australian landscapes and weather including images that show the interaction of extraordinary weather phenomena with industry, infrastructure or communities."

Information for photographers wishing to submit their images is at: www.bom.gov.au/calendar/contest

You can view the winning images for 2017 by grabbing one of the final remaining Australian Weather Calendars online at shop.bom.gov.au.

BoM: Press release... Tropical Low in the Gulf forecast to intensify over the weekend

Tropical Low in the Gulf forecast to intensify over the weekend

Issued: Friday, 17 February 2017

There is an increasing chance the tropical low in the Gulf of Carpentaria will develop into a tropical cyclone on Sunday morning.   The low is currently over land, and expected to move back over water and strengthen on Saturday.   Severe weather warnings are in place for coastal areas, which are expected to be impacted by damaging winds, with peak gusts to 100 kilometres per hour and heavy rainfall which may lead to flash flooding.   Abnormally high tides are expected about the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast today and over the weekend, but at this stage the sea level is not forecast to exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves are likely along the beachfront.   Flood Watches have been issued for the Queensland Gulf Rivers and Northern Territory Carpentaria Coastal Rivers. Although river levels are easing in the Carpentaria Coastal Rivers, many catchments are saturated from monsoonal conditions during the past two weeks and would respond to further rainfall.   Road conditions have been affected in many areas and some roads remain impassable. Some communities may remain isolated until conditions improve.   For warnings and the latest tropical cyclone forecast track maps see www.bom.gov.au/warnings   For further information www.bom.gov.au/cyclone   Follow us on Twitter BOM_Qld and BOM_NT and watch the latest Severe Weather Update on YouTube.   The Bureau’s Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres in Brisbane and Darwin operates 24 hours a day, 7 days a week with forecasters monitoring the situation and providing the latest information for emergency services, media and the community.   The public are urged to closely monitor the Bureau’s website for the latest information through local media and follow the advice of local emergency services.

BoM update on the events behind SA severe weather yesterday.

Matt Collopy is Supervising Meteorologist for South Australia at the Bureau of Meteorology "Tropical air mass over SA saw thunderstorms developing over Eyre Peninsula moving over Adelaide in the evening.   As the system moved across, this produced large thunderstorms, damaging wind gusts, heavy rain and high rainfall rates in isolated areas.   This resulted in some locations reporting their wettest January day on record, and month-to-date totals have already resulted in some locations having their wettest January in more than 20 years.   Already, most locations across agricultural South Australia have reported more than twice the long term January average rainfall.   Rainfall: Maynard's Well 70.4mm Leigh Creek 61.2mm Auburn 51mm Little Para Reservoir 49mm Edinburgh 44.8mm (notably at Edinburgh 24mm fell in 25 minutes in the evening yesterday) Wilpena 106 mm Buckleboo 76 mm   Wind Gusts: Adelaide Airport 111km/h @ 20:27 Warburto Point 111km/h @ 19:12 Wudinna 106/km/h Minlaton 100km/h @16:30   70.4 mm at Maynards Well to 9am this morning and 61.2 mm at Leigh Creek are both highest daily rainfall totals at these sites since March 2012.   51.4 mm at Blinman is highest daily rainfall since Jan 2015. At Auburn also with 51.4 mm, was highest since Feb 2014.   Edinburgh with 44.8 mm had 70mm in late Dec 2016. 27mm of this in 1 hour is about a 1 in 15 year ARI (average recurrence interval) for that location.   Port Augusta recorded 10.6 mm in 9 minutes, which has an ARI of ~1 in 5 year." Courtesy of ausSMC

National: We should be moving into a wetter pattern

Rainfall - The chance of above median for May to July

The Bureau of Meteorology issued the latest 3 month Climate Outlook today and it suggests a definite shift from the recent dry conditions to more regular and potentially widespread above median falls across most of the non tropical areas with June and July looking to be the more active months as opposed to May where decent falls look to be patchier.

The pattern of rainfall would suggest an active period of North West Cloud Bands which sees the jet stream feed tropical moisture from thunderstorms near Indonesia into troughs and fronts crossing the south of the continent and feeding widespread rain bands. These systems are quite complex and need several aspects of development to occur in set order but it will be well worth watching for the tell tale cloud bands spreading from the north west to the eastern states in the coming months.

There are some exceptions including which include Tasmania, southern Victoria and the south west of Western Australia with these areas less likely to record above the median rainfall.

Temperatures will be impacted by any rain and cloud with maximums expected to be closer to normal in the wetter areas but above median minimum temperatures in all areas with the cloud and moisture levels reducing the potential for much colder nights and warmer days elsewhere also providing a warmer potential away from the cloud and rain.

To see the full details and maps go to the BoM climate outlooks here. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/rainfall/median/seasonal/0

Warmest March in the Global record and now is April the new March?

Every State and Territory is experiencing widespread areas of above average maximum and minimum temperatures so far this April and the current forecast models looking out to the end of the month are offering no expectation of a significant cold outbreak developing until perhaps the last 2 days of the month.

Every recording site in Queensland, Northern Territory and New South Wales are currently recording above average maximum temperatures. Apart from Casterton in Victoria all other sites are warmer than average. In Tasmania the only stations with a cooler than normal maximum average so far this month are Butlers Gorge, Mt Hartz, Mt Reid and Warra. South Australia and Western Australia have a broader mix with above average temperatures not as high as in the other states but even in South Australia only 8 stations are at or below average. Minimums are following very similar trends with the majority of sites much warmer than usual.

These warmer conditions are in part due to well above average water temperatures surrounding the continent, a lack of strong cold fronts drawing cold air across the nation and the persistent heating of northern Australia after a very poor wet season and not to mention the impact of human induced climate change.

For more on the Global Records read here 

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/warmest-march-in-global-recordkeeping-2016-roars-ahead-of-pack

 

 

 

Category 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone Winston could intensify further next 24 hours.

The latest information form the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre suggests that TC Winston will remain in a region with conditions favorable for further intensification over the next 24 hours. Even if the current cat 4 strength is maintained any significant weakening is not expected for around 72 hours when the Cyclone takes a more southerly turn as a high pressure ridge maintaining its current movement breaks down. This turn will move the Cyclone over more unfavorable sea surface temperatures and atmospheric wind shear. There is good consensus in the forecast model guidance. http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1116web.txt

There are widespread wind, rain and sea state warnings across the Fiji Islands with a tropical cyclone alert in force for the Lomaiviti group, Kadavu, eastern half of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu, Taveuni and nearby smaller islands.

Current condition at Lupepau'u Airport on Vava'u (Northern Tonga) are still gale force winds with gusts around 100 to 110km/h

Category 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone Winston could intensify further next 24 hours.

The latest information form the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre suggests that TC Winston will remain in a region with conditions favorable for further intensification over the next 24 hours. Even if the current cat 4 strength is maintained any significant weakening is not expected for around 72 hours when the Cyclone takes a more southerly turn as a high pressure ridge maintaining its current movement breaks down. This turn will move the Cyclone over more unfavorable sea surface temperatures and atmospheric wind shear. There is good consensus in the forecast model guidance. http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1116web.txt

There are widespread wind, rain and sea state warnings across the Fiji Islands with a tropical cyclone alert in force for the Lomaiviti group, Kadavu, eastern half of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu, Taveuni and nearby smaller islands.

Current condition at Lupepau'u Airport on Vava'u (Northern Tonga) are still gale force winds with gusts around 100 to 110km/h

National: Call out for your weather questions

 

I am hosting a 2 hour Radio program just after Australia all over Sun 10th Jan. It will be all Weather and I will be taking calls. Would love to get some advance questions though so send them in especially if you in the Central or western states as the program is live and will be over by the time it airs in WA. If you get your question in in advance we will do as many as possible so you will still get the answer.