We are approaching a tipping point in Australian politics, and a period of deep political instability no longer seems in doubt.
Prime ministerial churn has gone from a rare historical event to a regular occurrence; substantive reform has gone from a regular occurrence to a rare historical event. The senate is a rabble of unruly cross-benchers. Even major parties are fracturing, with political buccaneers peeling off to try their luck in a new world where policy counts for naught and the only political skill that seems to matter is the ability to direct the emotional energy of a crowd.
![Status quo: Are both Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten at a threshold?](/web/20170322190752im_/http://www.theage.com.au/content/dam/images/g/u/g/i/d/m/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gv097u.png/1487536991163.jpg)
It is tempting to believe that this current glut of political skulduggery – the coups and counter-coups, the splits and disunity – are a political low point. Unfortunately, the sustained upward trend in the minor party vote suggests a long period of deep political instability has only just begun.
Why? Because history shows the minor party vote is a critical barometer of political stability in our democracy. It reflects the number of people who have lost faith in the ability of either player in our two-party system to deliver good government. When at least one in four people are lodging a protest vote against establishment politics then one, or both, major parties have gone through a major disruptive realignment. Political self-interest, of the politicians of the day, drives this disruptive realignment.
For the first time in 70 years this critical threshold is about to be passed again. We went perilously close to passing it in the 2016 election, when 23 per cent of votes were cast for the minor parties. Since then, opinion poll after opinion poll has signalled that the protest vote could breach the 25-per-cent threshold at the next Federal Election. The data clearly shows that this trend is beyond any one party or individual, so if you think the result in the recent West Australian state election suggests this trend has peaked you may want to shove the cork back into the champagne bottle.
The progress of this chaotic process will ebb and flow as individual minor parties explode in popularity and implode under the weight of expectations. But the data clearly suggests a one in 100-year structural unbundling of our political system is underway. The major parties might adjust their strategies to reverse this long term trend but that is, in of itself, a deeply radical prediction.
Exactly where this process takes us and over what timeline is impossible to know. However, what is becoming clearer is that a new fault line is emerging in our politics which is challenging the traditional left-right divide around which both major parties are formed. This debate is pitting globalisation's fans against globalisation's critics, and with each passing year its importance grows. Immigration, wages, taxes, environmentalism, even house prices are now heavily influenced by this fault line.
Both major parties are fundamentally on the same side of this debate at the moment, which is causing deep divisions within the two majors and is presenting the minor parties with a very large, very fertile political vacuum to fill. How the major parties adjust themselves to deal with the dominance of this returning fault line is fundamental. Get it right and both political brands may survive (with radically different agendas). Get it wrong, and history suggests it could be curtains.
Nothing is permanent in politics, no matter how fundamental some things seem, and that includes the status and identity of the two major parties. The rising minor party vote is sending a loud and clear signal that voters are deeply unsatisfied with current political status quo. If the two major parties listen to that signal and respond with courage and tact, stability may eventually return. Ignore it and most of what we take for granted in our political system will be up for radical change.
Lachlan Harris is the co-founder and CEO of One Big Switch and Andrew Charlton is the co-founder and CEO of AlphaBeta. Both worked as senior advisers in the Prime Minister's Office during the Rudd Government.