How are we to explain Australian Labor’s woes? Some hints in an examination of British New Labour’s economic record by Duncan Weldon. He highlights how Labour’s model was unsustainable: Remember the campaign posters in 2005? How the issue of the economy was dealt with? A near endless repetition of macroeconomic statistics – the longest period […]
Class and region in the 2010 election
On one level the 2010 Australian election was a remarkable one. But on another level it was an election in which very little changed: the patterns of 2007 persisted with a regional overlay. In 2007 class alignments shifted as Labor won back the support of many working-class voters who had supported the Coalition in 2004 […]
What do Labor and Green voters think of each other?
Further to last post I continue examination of the beliefs of Australians as revealed in the Australian Election Survey from 1998 to 2010. Asking voters were they position themselves on a left-right spectrum where 0 is furthest to the left and 10 furthest to the right might seem abstract but analysis suggests that these classification […]
Facts on the 2010 election
The 2010 election and Labor’s near defeat have been endlessly discussed by the media but until now we little clear evidence as to exactly what happened. After each federal election a comprehensive survey is undertaken by the Australian National University. The dataset for the 2010 survey was made available in late December. However it was […]
Obama and Gillard’s prospects compared
2010 was a difficult year for the Australian Labor Party and the American Democrats. Media coverage goes in waves; it was slow to catch up with Labor’s woes and perhaps has overstated Obama’s difficulties. Much was made of the Democrats’ poor performance in the Congressional elections. Little attention was given to the fact that they […]
The war of the states?
The divergent patterns of swing across the states at the 2010 election attracted much comment. How variable was the swing? 2010 showed the highest level of variability in the Labor vote across the states since 1949 at least and perhaps the highest since 1931.
Have Australians become more conservative?
Interesting debate at John Quiggin on whether the election revealed a rightward shift by Australian voters. Left-inclined posters keen to deny this, but the evidence seems irrefutable. Consider two key issues: immigration and greenhouse policy. Conservatives have long been anxious about the decline of Anglo-Australia particularly since the 1970s when non-Anglo immigrants became assertive and […]
Political lessons from Alfred Deakin’s Parliaments
Discussion of the emerging era of minority government has ignored the 1901-10 period when neither of three parties: Labor, Free Traders and Protectionists (sometimes almost 4 parties when the conservative protectionists acted independently) had a majority and when Alfred Deakin, as Prime Minister three times, dominated Australian politics.
The two-party preferred vote criticised
The national two-party preferred Coalition vote is probably artificially high and this should be noted as both parties cite this vote as justification for their claim to form government.
The rural independents and their electorates
One argument made by conservative commentators in the aftermath of the inconclusive 2010 Australian election is that the three rural independents should support the Coalition because a majority of voters in their electorates support the Coalition as demonstrated by the Senate vote.