Update: 2017/03/22 10:00 am Greens have pulled back on Labor in the South West Region, While ALP has the best change now for the final seat in Mining and Pastoral (which was previously the shooters). Similarly, the Liberal Democrats are at risk of losing to the Daylight Savings party in South Metro (They’re about 500 votes shy of winning). This is looking very good for Labor, with 18 seats between them and The Greens needing only one more vote for legislation.
Update: 2017/03/15 11:00 pm Unchanged most probable outcome, minor percentage changes. No “non ticket votes” have been counted yet (apart from Yallingup Hall which has counted 33 votes as below the line for Tim Hartley, and zero above the line, so I can only assume this is a typographical error).
Update: 2017/03/13 10:00 pm Labor have reigned in the Greens seat in South West Region, now it’s leaning towards Labor.
Update: 2017/03/12 11:50 pm Liberals have pulled back on Fluoride Free in East Metro, it’s a tossup now.
Update: 2017/03/12 3:30 am Final Update for the Night (definitely).
Shooters and Fishers have brought it back to 50-50 with Labor in Mining and Pastoral Region, and the WA Greens have brought it back against Labor in the South West Region, being the favourites now!
Update: 2017/03/12 2:00 am Final Update for the Night (maybe).
Big move in Mining and Pastoral Counts, giving WA Labor one of the WA National seats, and solidifying the seat they were holding vs. the WA Greens. This is looking really good for WA Labor
Update: 2017/03/12 1:00 am Pretty happy saying WA Labor will get 14 seats (with a tossup with WA Greens for a 15th, so let’s give that to the Greens for the following analysis), WA Nationals will get 4 (battle with the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers for 5) and the Liberal Party with 9. This is interesting tactically, as it opens up a serious option for Nationals and Labor to pass legislation with 19 votes. If they don’t merge like that, there’s a 14-14 base vote, and then the minors come in on top. 4 votes to block, 5 to pass legislation. (the WA Greens are pretty solid with three votes, so locking them down would leave Labor needing two more votes).
This upper house is looking vastly more manageable for Labor than in Victoria (which turned into a big struggle).
I’ll take a break until the morning. I’ll update around 10-11 Sydney time
Most Likely Results (as at 3:30am Sydney Time)
Party (19 for majority) |
Seats (2am) |
Seats (3:30am) |
Seats (11:50pm) |
Seats (10pm 13/03) |
Seats (11pm 15/03) |
Seats (10am 22/03) |
WA Labor |
16 |
14 |
14 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
THE NATIONALS |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
Liberal Party |
9 |
9 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers |
1 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
The Greens (WA) |
2 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
FLUORIDE FREE WA |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Liberal Democrats |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
High Variance Counts
Agricultural Region (86k Votes Counted, 103k Enrolled)
Group |
Name |
Votes |
Percent |
Quotas |
Seats! |
F |
THE NATIONALS |
25551 |
30.6 |
2.14 |
2.0 |
A |
WA Labor |
20484 |
24.53 |
1.72 |
1.999 |
I |
Liberal Party |
15814 |
18.94 |
1.33 |
1.0 |
E |
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers |
4626 |
5.54 |
0.39 |
0.996 |
N |
Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
9671 |
11.58 |
0.81 |
0.005 |
Others |
|
7363 |
8.82 |
0.62 |
0.0 |
East Metropolitan Region (328k Votes Counted, 395k Enrolled)
Group |
Name |
Votes |
Percent |
Quotas |
Seats! |
N |
WA Labor |
150287 |
47.46 |
3.32 |
3.0 |
D |
Liberal Party |
80662 |
25.47 |
1.78 |
1.792 |
I |
The Greens (WA) |
25856 |
8.17 |
0.57 |
0.875 |
K |
Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
25153 |
7.94 |
0.56 |
0.174 |
G |
FLUORIDE FREE WA |
1109 |
0.35 |
0.02 |
0.148 |
Q |
Australian Christians |
7536 |
2.38 |
0.17 |
0.011 |
Others |
|
26039 |
8.22 |
0.58 |
0.0 |
Mining and Pastoral Region (49k Votes Counted, 68k Enrolled)
Group |
Name |
Votes |
Percent |
Quotas |
Seats! |
I |
WA Labor |
16376 |
34.67 |
2.43 |
2.396 |
Q |
THE NATIONALS |
8861 |
18.76 |
1.31 |
1.041 |
P |
Liberal Party |
7568 |
16.02 |
1.12 |
1.0 |
L |
Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
6504 |
13.77 |
0.96 |
0.962 |
C |
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers |
2423 |
5.13 |
0.36 |
0.264 |
M |
The Greens (WA) |
2551 |
5.4 |
0.38 |
0.224 |
D |
Flux The System! |
418 |
0.88 |
0.06 |
0.112 |
Others |
|
2531 |
5.36 |
0.38 |
0.0 |
North Metropolitan Region (324k Votes Counted, 391k Enrolled)
Group |
Name |
Votes |
Percent |
Quotas |
Seats! |
J |
Liberal Party |
117633 |
37.29 |
2.61 |
2.717 |
B |
WA Labor |
119448 |
37.86 |
2.65 |
2.033 |
G |
The Greens (WA) |
29001 |
9.19 |
0.64 |
0.967 |
C |
Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
20368 |
6.46 |
0.45 |
0.274 |
E |
Family First |
2188 |
0.69 |
0.05 |
0.007 |
D |
Daylight Saving Party |
2430 |
0.77 |
0.05 |
0.002 |
O |
Australian Christians |
4773 |
1.51 |
0.11 |
0.0 |
Others |
|
19642 |
6.23 |
0.44 |
0.0 |
South Metropolitan Region (340k Votes Counted, 409k Enrolled)
Group |
Name |
Votes |
Percent |
Quotas |
Seats! |
H |
WA Labor |
150543 |
45.61 |
3.19 |
3.0 |
S |
Liberal Party |
83069 |
25.17 |
1.76 |
1.849 |
L |
Liberal Democrats |
13268 |
4.02 |
0.28 |
0.522 |
D |
Daylight Saving Party |
2546 |
0.77 |
0.05 |
0.47 |
M |
The Greens (WA) |
28269 |
8.56 |
0.6 |
0.148 |
B |
Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
22928 |
6.95 |
0.49 |
0.011 |
Others |
|
29438 |
8.92 |
0.62 |
0.0 |
South West Region (190k Votes Counted, 226k Enrolled)
Group |
Name |
Votes |
Percent |
Quotas |
Seats! |
D |
WA Labor |
68213 |
37.04 |
2.59 |
2.432 |
H |
Liberal Party |
42774 |
23.23 |
1.63 |
1.0 |
K |
Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
19437 |
10.56 |
0.74 |
0.999 |
P |
THE NATIONALS |
21822 |
11.85 |
0.83 |
0.996 |
E |
The Greens (WA) |
13159 |
7.15 |
0.5 |
0.568 |
A |
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers |
7297 |
3.96 |
0.28 |
0.004 |
Others |
|
11440 |
6.21 |
0.43 |
0.0 |
Pre Election Predictions
I’ve included this section for comparison to the live counts. Let’s see how I did!
Agricultural Region (Pre-Election Prediction)
Group |
Name |
Votes |
Percent |
Quotas |
Seats! |
A |
WA Labor |
16154 |
29.7 |
2.08 |
2.059 |
F |
THE NATIONALS |
10457 |
19.23 |
1.35 |
1.126 |
I |
Liberal Party |
10204 |
18.76 |
1.31 |
1.064 |
E |
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers |
2479 |
4.56 |
0.32 |
0.858 |
N |
Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
6308 |
11.6 |
0.81 |
0.438 |
O |
Liberal Democrats |
1391 |
2.56 |
0.18 |
0.398 |
H |
The Greens (WA) |
2831 |
5.2 |
0.36 |
0.034 |
D |
Australian Christians |
1415 |
2.6 |
0.18 |
0.01 |
C |
Flux The System! |
371 |
0.68 |
0.05 |
0.003 |
B |
Family First |
832 |
1.53 |
0.11 |
0.003 |
L |
Micro Business Party |
371 |
0.68 |
0.05 |
0.003 |
G |
Daylight Saving Party |
371 |
0.68 |
0.05 |
0.002 |
K |
FLUORIDE FREE WA |
371 |
0.68 |
0.05 |
0.001 |
Others |
|
836 |
1.54 |
0.11 |
0.0 |
East Metropolitan Region (Pre-Election Prediction)
Group |
Name |
Votes |
Percent |
Quotas |
Seats! |
N |
WA Labor |
135249 |
44.57 |
3.12 |
2.93 |
D |
Liberal Party |
93992 |
30.98 |
2.17 |
1.977 |
G |
FLUORIDE FREE WA |
1858 |
0.61 |
0.04 |
0.556 |
Q |
Australian Christians |
7836 |
2.58 |
0.18 |
0.256 |
I |
The Greens (WA) |
22839 |
7.53 |
0.53 |
0.122 |
K |
Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
17614 |
5.8 |
0.41 |
0.104 |
A |
Daylight Saving Party |
1858 |
0.61 |
0.04 |
0.021 |
F |
Liberal Democrats |
4645 |
1.53 |
0.11 |
0.011 |
R |
Flux The System! |
1858 |
0.61 |
0.04 |
0.009 |
H |
Family First |
3497 |
1.15 |
0.08 |
0.007 |
O |
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers |
4749 |
1.57 |
0.11 |
0.005 |
C |
Micro Business Party |
1858 |
0.61 |
0.04 |
0.002 |
Others |
|
5577 |
1.84 |
0.13 |
0.0 |
Mining and Pastoral Region (Pre-Election Prediction)
Group |
Name |
Votes |
Percent |
Quotas |
Seats! |
I |
WA Labor |
14905 |
26.08 |
1.83 |
1.692 |
P |
Liberal Party |
13357 |
23.37 |
1.64 |
1.417 |
Q |
THE NATIONALS |
9351 |
16.36 |
1.15 |
1.044 |
L |
Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
7445 |
13.03 |
0.91 |
0.869 |
C |
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers |
2028 |
3.55 |
0.25 |
0.327 |
D |
Flux The System! |
350 |
0.61 |
0.04 |
0.304 |
M |
The Greens (WA) |
4724 |
8.27 |
0.58 |
0.264 |
A |
FLUORIDE FREE WA |
350 |
0.61 |
0.04 |
0.035 |
T |
Family First |
1217 |
2.13 |
0.15 |
0.018 |
R |
Liberal Democrats |
874 |
1.53 |
0.11 |
0.013 |
H |
Australian Christians |
972 |
1.7 |
0.12 |
0.01 |
E |
Daylight Saving Party |
350 |
0.61 |
0.04 |
0.007 |
B |
Micro Business Party |
350 |
0.61 |
0.04 |
0.0 |
Others |
|
871 |
1.52 |
0.11 |
0.0 |
North Metropolitan Region (Pre-Election Prediction)
Group |
Name |
Votes |
Percent |
Quotas |
Seats! |
J |
Liberal Party |
116976 |
37.75 |
2.64 |
2.435 |
B |
WA Labor |
105911 |
34.18 |
2.39 |
2.103 |
G |
The Greens (WA) |
25261 |
8.15 |
0.57 |
0.587 |
C |
Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
33122 |
10.69 |
0.75 |
0.561 |
E |
Family First |
2782 |
0.9 |
0.06 |
0.12 |
O |
Australian Christians |
4569 |
1.47 |
0.1 |
0.096 |
I |
FLUORIDE FREE WA |
1778 |
0.57 |
0.04 |
0.032 |
D |
Daylight Saving Party |
1778 |
0.57 |
0.04 |
0.023 |
F |
Micro Business Party |
1778 |
0.57 |
0.04 |
0.022 |
K |
Flux The System! |
1778 |
0.57 |
0.04 |
0.012 |
M |
Liberal Democrats |
4444 |
1.43 |
0.1 |
0.008 |
P |
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers |
3265 |
1.05 |
0.07 |
0.0 |
L |
Animal Justice Party |
3333 |
1.08 |
0.08 |
0.0 |
Others |
|
3109 |
1.0 |
0.07 |
0.0 |
South Metropolitan Region (Pre-Election Prediction)
Group |
Name |
Votes |
Percent |
Quotas |
Seats! |
H |
WA Labor |
133616 |
43.64 |
3.05 |
2.89 |
S |
Liberal Party |
97329 |
31.79 |
2.23 |
2.063 |
M |
The Greens (WA) |
25235 |
8.24 |
0.58 |
0.324 |
K |
Australian Christians |
5768 |
1.88 |
0.13 |
0.278 |
B |
Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
19394 |
6.33 |
0.44 |
0.172 |
T |
Family First |
5302 |
1.73 |
0.12 |
0.135 |
D |
Daylight Saving Party |
1188 |
0.39 |
0.03 |
0.105 |
J |
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers |
4512 |
1.47 |
0.1 |
0.014 |
F |
Micro Business Party |
1188 |
0.39 |
0.03 |
0.01 |
L |
Liberal Democrats |
2970 |
0.97 |
0.07 |
0.006 |
P |
Animal Justice Party |
2227 |
0.73 |
0.05 |
0.0 |
E |
FLUORIDE FREE WA |
1188 |
0.39 |
0.03 |
0.0 |
C |
Flux The System! |
1188 |
0.39 |
0.03 |
0.0 |
A |
Socialist Alliance |
1485 |
0.49 |
0.03 |
0.0 |
Others |
|
3564 |
1.16 |
0.08 |
0.0 |
South West Region (Pre-Election Prediction)
Group |
Name |
Votes |
Percent |
Quotas |
Seats! |
D |
WA Labor |
59917 |
35.47 |
2.48 |
2.254 |
H |
Liberal Party |
48572 |
28.75 |
2.01 |
1.852 |
K |
Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
16513 |
9.77 |
0.68 |
0.534 |
E |
The Greens (WA) |
12277 |
7.27 |
0.51 |
0.487 |
P |
THE NATIONALS |
12612 |
7.47 |
0.52 |
0.283 |
M |
FLUORIDE FREE WA |
1031 |
0.61 |
0.04 |
0.16 |
N |
Liberal Democrats |
2576 |
1.52 |
0.11 |
0.125 |
G |
Flux The System! |
1031 |
0.61 |
0.04 |
0.093 |
O |
Daylight Saving Party |
1031 |
0.61 |
0.04 |
0.066 |
C |
Family First |
2456 |
1.45 |
0.1 |
0.063 |
A |
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers |
3810 |
2.26 |
0.16 |
0.054 |
F |
Australian Christians |
2338 |
1.38 |
0.1 |
0.019 |
B |
Micro Business Party |
1031 |
0.61 |
0.04 |
0.007 |
L |
Animal Justice Party |
1932 |
1.14 |
0.08 |
0.002 |
Others |
|
1805 |
1.07 |
0.07 |
0.0 |