The Western Australian state election, to be held in March, will be the first electoral test of One Nation since they won four seats in the Senate in last year’s federal election.
Since the party hasn’t been a significant factor in recent state elections, we can’t use past results to judge where they are likely to win seats. The only data we have is the booth results from the Senate ballot from the last federal election.
I’ve taken those results and distributed them into the state electorates used in the upcoming election.
One Nation polled 4% in the Senate in Western Australia. In comparison, the most recent state Newspoll has One Nation on 13%, and other polls have put the party at over 10%.
This map shows the vote for each state electorate:
Unsurprisingly, One Nation does better in regional areas. The ten best seats are all outside of Perth, and every seat outside of the metropolitan region saw a One Nation vote of over 4%.
This gives One Nation a significant advantage in the Legislative Council race, since votes in regional areas are worth a lot more.
Approximately three quarters of the state’s population lives in the urban area, and this population is divided into three upper house regions, represented by 18 MLCs. The remaining quarter is also represented by 18 MLCs. If their vote holds at its current levels, One Nation’s concentrated regional vote could give them a swag of seats.
This table shows the One Nation vote in each upper house region at the 2016 election, and what that vote would be if it was scaled up from 4% to 13%.
| Region | 2016 vote (4%) | 2016 vote adjusted 13% |
| Agricultural | 6.87% | 22.33% |
| East Metropolitan | 3.86% | 12.55% |
| Mining and Pastoral | 8.31% | 27.01% |
| North Metropolitan | 1.99% | 6.47% |
| South Metropolitan | 2.94% | 9.56% |
| South West | 6.51% | 21.16% |
This is an imperfect way to project support – Senate votes have limited value – but if true this would suggest that One Nation would easily win three Legislative Council seats, with a good shot at winning a seat in East Metropolitan region too.
This reflects the results of the 2001 election, when One Nation won a seat in each of the three non-metropolitan upper house regions. In Perth, One Nation polled best in the east and worst in the north, and that pattern was still true in the 2016 Senate vote.
As for the lower house, One Nation never won any seats in Western Australia at its previous peak in 2001, but did come in the top two in multiple seats, most of which were regional seats held by the Nationals.
Here is the list of the ten seats with the highest One Nation vote at the 2016 federal election:
| Region | Margin | 2016 vote (4%) | 2016 vote adjusted 13% |
| Kalgoorlie | NAT 4.1% vs ALP | 9.75% | 31.69% |
| Pilbara | NAT 11.5% vs LIB | 9.39% | 30.52% |
| North West Central | NAT 9.6% vs LIB | 8.71% | 28.31% |
| Murray-Wellington | LIB 12.0% | 8.57% | 27.85% |
| Collie-Preston | LIB 3.0% | 7.97% | 25.90% |
| Moore | NAT 5.9% vs LIB | 7.37% | 23.95% |
| Geraldton | LIB 10.9% vs NAT | 7.21% | 23.43% |
| Bunbury | LIB 11.8% | 7.01% | 22.78% |
| Mandurah | ALP 7.7% | 6.87% | 22.33% |
| Central Wheatbelt | NAT 8.8% vs LIB | 6.77% | 22.00% |
If the One Nation vote is as high as recent polling has suggested, the party could poll well over 20% in a few key seats and could be a contender, depending on how preferences flow.
One Nation are polling well – but won’t get above 15%. I live in the Pilbara and we’ve not seen their Candidate or heard from him, and have been told he doesn’t even live here?
In 2001 they did well in rural areas, but the Nats were not the force then that they are now. I suspect they could do surprisingly well in seats where the Nats are a lesser party, or simply not there. Mandurah, Bunbury, Murray-Wellington and Collie-Preston would therefore be the ones to watch in this table.
In addition to taking votes from both major parties (which they will, though the Liberals have more to fear), they may be able to take on the Nats in mining areas, depending on how well the proposed tax has gone down. It wasn’t that long ago that these places were solid Labor, but it’s hard to see voters going directly back to the ALP.
Having handed out voting material for another party at various elections, I could not help but notice that a lot of voters take both the One Nation Party and the Labor Party “how to vote” material. This indicates me that the One Nation voter is conservative working class. This is a large percentage of the voting population. John Flanagan.
I remember reading somewhere (Antony Green’s blog?) that the working class conservatives who make up One Nation’s base otherwise vote Liberal/National, although that was referring to the turn of the century incarnation.
In an election like this I can imagine plenty of One Nation voters being former coalition voters who now put them last. I can see Labor holding on to its rural seats and picking up Bunbury thanks to One Nation, and it might even end up helping the Greens in seats like Kimberley, Vasse and Warren-Blackwood – preferences from right wing minors saved Rachel Siewert
One Nation should win a seat each in the Agricultural, Mining & Pastoral and South West regions, whilst being a shot in the Eastern Metro Region. If their support levels ramp up they could even be a chance for a second seat in the Mining & Pastoral Region.
And even if a preference deal is struck between the Libs and One Nation I feel that One Nation Voters will still peel off and preference Labor and even the Nationals at a high rate.