Forget what some polls, political pundits and people prattling on at the pub are saying about the WA election this Saturday night, Labor will romp to victory.
And it's not because Labor leader Mark McGowan has been charming the pants off voters or because of the party's extraordinary $5 billion worth of election promises or the fact WA is languishing in the economic doldrums. Although, let's be honest the Barnett government blowing a once-in-a-lifetime mining boom doesn't look good on their CV.
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Labor will win because WA has become "sick" of the sight of Colin Barnett.
Given Mr Barnett is one of WA longest serving Premier's, the comment does appear a tad bit harsh, but University of WA political analyst William Bowe said any leader looks "stale" after more than eight years in the job.
"Very clearly voters are sick of Colin Barnett, as you can easily see by looking at his poll ratings," he told WAtoday.
"The rot appeared to set in not long after the 2013 election.
"It's worth comparing him to the successful Labor premiers of a decade ago – Bob Carr (NSW), Steve Bracks (Victoria), Peter Beattie (QLD) and Geoff Gallop (WA) – who picked the timing of their departure well and gave their successors at least a fighting chance of winning another election (successfully in New South Wales and Queensland, very narrowly unsuccessfully in Victoria and WA).
Murdoch University political scientist Ian Cook agreed with Mr Bowe, claiming it's "hard to sell the same leader three times in a row".
![Jobs, the economy, privatisation and a resurgent Pauline Hanson are all factors at Saturday's poll.](/web/20170310190749im_/http://www.watoday.com.au/content/dam/images/g/u/s/d/p/m/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.guut2m.png/1489100175168.jpg)
"Colin Barnett is unpopular among enough voters to make a difference here," he said.
"Not overly liked but tolerated is one thing. Being unpopular is another. This was the sentiment that Pauline Hanson picked up while she was over here.
![Mark McGowan will be celebrating with his family come Saturday night.](/web/20170310190749im_/http://www.watoday.com.au/content/dam/images/g/u/g/a/w/n/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.guut2m.png/1489100175168.jpg)
"This sentiment is not universal and some voters are very positive about Colin Barnett. But when they stop to cast their vote, enough people are likely to decide they've had enough of him."
Notre Dame political expert Martin Drum said eventually voters just want a change.
And history is against the Liberals, because no government has won three elections in a row since the introduction of four year terms in 1987.
"When you have four year terms, for a third term you are expecting the public to re-elect a government which has been in power for eight years," Dr Drum said. "That's a big ask.
"In this case its eight and a half given that Alan Carpenter went early in 2008. Enough people eventually see the need for change. Most importantly, the economy here isn't doing well, which is a bigger factor than many people realise."
Dr Drum said the chatter about the Liberals' losing the election because of the preference deal with One Nation was "too simplistic".
A Fairfax Media poll last week had One Nation getting just 8.5 per cent of the primary vote which is well below what was first predicted.
But Dr Drum said One Nation got the better deal.
"The Liberals' deal with One Nation has undermined the government's ability to talk about their policies but it won't be what costs them the election," he said.
"Let's remember that the government has been behind in the polls for months, well before that deal was made.
"So if people blame their election loss on that deal they're being very simplistic. One Nation preferences probably won't save as many Liberal seats as they hoped though.
"Also, the deal may well see One Nation MPs elected to the upper house, which was the whole point of it from their perspective. So for One Nation it could still work."
Both Dr Cook and Mr Bowe said the Liberals' deal with One Nation had backfired for the Barnett government.
Dr Cook said in the end, the Liberals were sold a "lemon".
"I am certain that the One Nation preference deal backfired, especially given Hanson's disastrous trip to WA," he said.
"She put Colin Barnett in an impossibly difficult position by saying he'd have to be dumped after the election. He was always a bit uncomfortable with the deal. Then it got completely out of hand."
"The One Nation vote will probably be lower than the Liberals were counting on and the difference the deal makes to the flow of One Nation preferences won't be as much either," Mr Bowe said.
"One Nation will at least get the advantage of preferences from above-the-line Liberal voters in the upper house – the Liberals don't even have the consolation."
All of the political experts believe the Liberal party could end up losing as many as 20 seats.
"Yes, I think 15-20 seats is plausible – perhaps even probable," Mr Bowe said.
"I'm on guard against the conservative instinct that people usually have in these situations. The swing will be unprecedented, and it will convert into Labor winning seats that many are reluctant to credit them with based on the size of what are actually artificially inflated margins from 2013.
"My best guess is that Labor will get everything on the pendulum up to Wanneroo, which is 12 seats right there, plus about three roughies beyond that range."
"Yes, I can see 15-20 seats going to Labor. The more commentators, like me, talk up Labor's chances, though, the more likely that some voters might baulk at a big Labor win," Dr Cook said
"If I was a betting man I'd have my money on Labor to win comfortably," Dr Drum said.
"I think 20 seems to me to be very ambitious, but Labor is campaigning in Jandakot (18 per cent margin) so anything's a possibility if the mood for change is on."