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WA election poll shows One Nation vote on the slide

Brendan Foster

One Nation might not be the political force in West Australian politics as first predicted and its resurgence appears to be on the skids only a week before the state election, an exclusive Fairfax Media poll shows.

Political pundits and polls were predicting Pauline Hanson's One Nation could get as high as 13 per cent of the primary vote and win at least three upper house seats, which could dramatically shift the balance of power away from the Liberals/Nationals.

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Colin Barnett has confirmed a preference deal has been done with Pauline Hanson, in a move he admits will help him retain power. Vision: Nine News Perth.

But a ReachTEL poll of about 1700 respondents, commissioned exclusively for Fairfax Media, showed One Nation would get only 8.5 per cent of the primary vote.

Given the preference deal with the Liberals, One Nation is still a strong chance to get the balance of power in the upper house, but a less than double-digit vote across Western Australia would see the party struggle to grab as many lower house seats as first predicted.

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Murdoch University political expert Ian Cook said One Nation's deal with the Liberals and a lack of unification within One Nation could have resulted in voters leaving the party in droves.

 
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"I'd always wondered whether people who said they'd vote One Nation early on would do so as we got closer to the election because the party still suffers from a lack of party discipline among its candidates," he told Fairfax Media.

"That their candidates don't toe a party line may be why many people vote for them.

"But it makes it hard for them to appear unified. I think the preference deal made One Nation look divided and like its leadership was making it into an establishment party by doing deals. So it hurt them in two ways."

However, what was clear in the poll was that those who are opting to vote for One Nation are more likely to do so because of their dissatisfaction with the major parties, not because of the party's policies.

When One Nation voters were asked why they were voting for the minor party, 74.8 per cent said it was because they were fed up with Labor, the Liberals or both. That meant just 25.2 per cent were voting for the party for its policies.

In stark contrast, 50.6 per cent of Greens voters said they were picking the party based on policy.

Pollsters appear to be voting for some minor parties based on apathy, not policy.

Pollsters appear to be voting for some minor parties based on apathy, not policy.

Irrespective of the disparity between these two parties it appears apathy with both the Liberals and Labor (or both) is the main driving force behind all minority party votes.

Of all the pollsters who signified intent to vote for a minor party, 60.5 per cent said they were doing it as a result of their discontent with the major parties. 

But voter apathy may not prove to be enough for One Nation. Curtin University political analyst John Phillimore said he's not even convinced the party would get the balance of power in the upper house.

"I always thought the polls showing One Nation getting 13 per cent of primary vote was too high, so around 8.5 to 9 seems more likely," he said.

"I think the preference deal with the Liberals will hurt the Liberals more than One Nation, particularly in the city.

"One Nation will likely pick up three upper house seats, but will that be enough to get the balance of power? It's hard to tell."

Professor Phillimore said the fact that zero per cent of people polled said they were undecided about voting for One Nation wasn't a disaster for the party.

"I think people are going to vote for One Nation or not, so many of the One Nation voters would have already made up their minds," he said

Candidate controversies

Since One Nation launched its push into WA politics last month, a number of candidates have come under fire even though party leader and founder Ms Hanson said she was personally involved in vetting the candidates.

Cameron Bartkowski, who is running for One Nation in the upper house in the South West region, was linked to a number of sexually explicit pages and lewd groups on Facebook. 

Pilbara candidate David Archibald labelled single woman too "lazy to attract and hold a mate". 

Bateman candidate Michelle Myers made claims the gay community uses Nazi-style mind control to get people to support same-sex marriage.

And only last week One Nation dumped two of its candidates - Dane Sorensen (North West Central) and Sandy Baraiolo (Thornlie) - because the pair didn't meet the party's standards.

Notre Dame senior lecturer in politics Martin Drum said the infighting within One Nation could be impacting on its vote.

"Despite this result, One Nation remains an important factor in this election," he said.

"Their higher vote in the regions gives them an edge over the Greens in terms of winning upper house seats, and the Liberal preferences make that far more likely.

"In several key outer metropolitan seats, their preferences may well decide who wins. I'm not sure they will follow how-to-vote cards though."

Greens on the rise

Fairfax Media's poll shows a higher than usual amount of people are planning to vote for the minor parties and the biggest beneficiary of that could be the Greens, which are expected to get almost 10 per cent of the primary vote.

"The rise in the Greens vote is interesting," Dr Drum said.

"There's no obvious explanation for it, since there aren't burning issues this time around, where their policy positions differ from Labor's.

"Perhaps they are capturing more of the voter demographic that is fed up with the major parties."

Professor Phillimore is predicting Labor will just get over the line come March 11.

"But we could wake up Monday morning and it could be a completely different result, so it's not in the bag yet and I wouldn't be putting my house on it," he said.

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