An Essendon fan whose work revolves around football was asked in passing during the week how he thought the Bombers would fare in 2017. "They'll finish somewhere between second and 16th," he said.
Has there ever been a greater unknown quantity entering a season than the Bombers of this year? This is a club that finished last in 2016, but welcomes back 10 experienced players fresh from a year out of the game. Bar some compensation claims and concerns for the health of former coach James Hird, the damage the disastrous 2012 supplements regime caused are behind them. Having sought an edge, the Bombers spent four years playing with one hand behind their back - last year it was probably two hands - but in 2017 they are unencumbered.
But what now? Essendon chief executive Xavier Campbell recognises that the wins won't simply roll in. "The challenges of the past few years are almost fully behind us, but, in reality, all that means is that for the first time in a long while we are only now on a level playing field with our competitors," Campbell told Fairfax Media.
His stance typifies the cautious optimism of the club. "I know our guys are excited about this, but we all realise we have a serious amount of hard work in front of us," Campbell said.
"The uncertainty of where our team sits - given the unique position of bringing in such a significant number of key players - is well known among commentators and observers, but there is a level of excitement, hunger and positivity - among the playing group, the broader club and our fans - that we haven't seen for some time."
So just where does Essendon sit? The club's recent history is undoubtedly clouded, but offers clues.
Where they've come from
The Bombers pushed the boundaries of sports science more than five years ago in order to snag a first finals win since 2004. That narrow victory against Melbourne in the elimination final remains the Dons' most recent finals triumph. They've only made the final eight three times in that period, thumped by Adelaide (2009) and Carlton (2011), and overrun by North Melbourne (2014). To put it bluntly, this has been a remarkably unsuccessful era. Only the Bombers, Richmond and expansion club Gold Coast are without a finals win since the start of 2005. Ideally, one would look at pre-saga Essendon to get a gauge on how the club might go this year, but that is half a decade ago. Three-quarters of the list has been turned over, so there would appear to be little benefit in looking at 2012. The following three seasons were all played while lugging around the elephant of the scandal. It is impossible to tell just how much of an impact it had, and when that impact was most acutely felt. In raw terms, home-and-away win tallies of 14, 12 and six suggests a team of diminishing quality, but to look at that in isolation would be like calling Donald Trump a politician: true, but only scratching the surface. Last year, at least statistically, was a write-off. Three wins were really just a bonus in the long-run. Not that there weren't plenty of gains made while the banned boys were on the sidelines.
The best - round two, 2015
To get a picture of what Essendon have been capable of in the relatively recent future, look back less than two years ago, to round two, 2015. Denied pre-season games because of an impending AFL anti-doping tribunal hearing, the temporarily unburdened and largely uninjured Bombers were pipped in a round-one heart-stopper away to 2014 grand finalists Sydney. Eight days later, they fronted up at the MCG and knocked off back-to-back reigning premiers Hawthorn, who as it turned out were en route to a third straight flag. Among the best that day for Essendon were Dyson Heppell, Cale Hooker, Zach Merrett, Jobe Watson, Brendon Goddard, Brent Stanton and Michael Hurley, all of whom are still there. Fifteen of the 22 that beat the Hawks are still at the club. The seven who have departed are Jake Melksham, Michael Hibberd, Jake Carlisle, Paul Chapman, Adam Cooney, James Gwilt and Jason Ashby. It's not a bad collection, but there are some handy potential replacements coach John Worsfold could now call on.
Who they've added since
Melksham played well that day against the Hawks, but had become a frustrating player for Dons fans by the time he left to join the Demons at the end of 2015. Darcy Parish got 20 games worth of experience in a depleted side last year, and in the medium term should be an upgrade on Melksham. Hibberd's run from half-back pushed him towards All-Australian contention as recently as 2014. He is rated by Champion Data as an above-average player. Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti emerged as line-breaking defender last year, but was pushed forward towards the end of the season and has spent time near goal in the pre-season. If he stays there, then perhaps Hibberd's place goes to No. 1 draft pick Andrew McGrath, who is likely to ultimately become a midfielder, but is capable at half-back, too. Or it could be veteran James Kelly, finished as a footballer 16 months ago but given a lifeline as a top-up.
Carlisle played various roles in his last couple of years at the Dons. That day against the Hawks he was a forward, an area of serious concern for the Bombers then and now. As the old adage goes, good key forwards don't grow on trees. Mitch Brown was no more than serviceable last year playing as second banana to the unreliable but at-times superb Joe Daniher. James Stewart showed glimpses of brilliance during his time at Greater Western Sydney but the jury is out. Instead it will probably be Hooker - an unlikely match-winning goalkicker that day against the Hawks - who lines up alongside Daniher, having trained during the pre-season as a forward. The logical replacement for Hooker down back is Michael Hartley, who coped reasonably well in an under-siege backline last year. Chapman's spot in the team has been taken by speedy Orazio Fantasia, whose 29 goals last year were second at the club behind Daniher's 43. Cooney can be comfortably replaced by David Myers, who has barely played a game in two years because of injury and suspension, missing that Hawks win after being hurt the previous week against the Swans. Gwilt's spot as an undersized key defender was effectively taken by Matt Dea, who did enough as a top-up to earn another year at Tullamarine. Ashby was no more than a fringe-dweller, with tall third year midfielder Kyle Langford a likely candidate for his spot in the 22 after a strong off-season.
Fitness
It hasn't been an entirely injury-free summer for Essendon. Tom Bellchambers - who played that day against the Hawks - faces a delayed start to the season because of a knee issue, which means Matthew Leuenberger is likely to retain the ruck spot he took last year with Bellchambers suspended. Hooker, Hurley, Hartley, highly rated youngster Aaron Francis, and Daniher have all had niggles, although none seem too serious.
Selection decisions
Tough calls might loom on the likes of midfielders Heath Hocking, Stanton and Ben Howlett, all of whom were regulars before their suspensions. But with McDonald-Tipungwuti, Fantasia and Parish having all become regulars, and with talented youngsters such as McGrath, Langford, Francis and Jayden Laverde knocking on the door, there should be competition for spots. Not to mention Craig Bird, Conor McKenna and Jackson Merrett, all of whom played plenty of senior footy last year in the absence of the suspended group. It could mean pressure too on defender Patrick Ambrose, who was serviceable when shifted back last year but looks vulnerable if the Dons get most of their list fit.
So how do they go?
Helping Essendon's cause is an accommodating fixture, rated by Fairfax Media's Rohan Connolly as the easiest in the AFL in 2017. If their stars play to the level they did that day against Hawthorn, Essendon should be very hard to beat this year, especially if they get further improvement from the young brigade. That, of course, is a massive if. Three months after that win, an Essendon team featuring 16 of the same players - including Heppell, an admittedly banged-up Watson, Hooker, Hurley, Zach Merrett and Goddard lost to lowly St Kilda by 110 points. That dispirited performance - coming a couple of months after WADA appealed the AFL Tribunal's verdict - sowed the seed for Hird's departure the following month. Play like that and the Bombers will finish in the bottom four. So which Dons show up in 2017? Even they say they don't know.
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