Just how the Magpies handle Nathan Buckley's contract year will be one of the more intriguing aspects of season 2017.
Buckley put his expiring deal firmly on the agenda when he said he would not expect to be reappointed should the Magpies fail to make the finals this year.
Magpies chief executive Gary Pert told SEN earlier this month that the board had yet to even think about Buckley's status, and any decision to reappoint him would involve more than just whether the club ended a four-year finals drought. Surely that would be the case for a board with a variety of business acumen, for injuries and other vagaries of a long campaign must be considered, but the bottom line will be whether Buckley's tactical acumen marries well with the current list, which many believe boasts the league's best midfield.
Pert said the Pies "expect to be back in the finals and the speculation then quickly stops". His pre-season mantra is generally that the Pies expect to be alive come September – but this time the fate of one of the club's greatest figures largely hangs on the result.
In a perfect world, the ideal way for the Pies to handle this delicate situation would be to back Buckley in, offering a one-year extension before the season begins. That would take a leap of faith, reinforcing their belief in Buckley to the man himself, the public and players.
Buckley can't afford to "lose" the players should things go awry early in the season but the indications are there won't be any contract on offer before the round-one opener against the Western Bulldogs. This comes at a time when clubs, supporters and AFL chiefs are increasingly frowning upon contract extensions when recent results have been questionable. Look at the backlash by Tigers supporters against Damien Hardwick's deal.
Magpies great Tony Shaw doesn't expect the Pies to act until once the season is done.
"I would just think it would be fairly balanced on them making the eight. If they weren't to make the eight again, and Nathan has said this, he thinks he would be under the pump," Shaw said.
"Things will come into play. Does he get another chance if he has a horrible run with injury, which he has had probably over the last few years? But sooner or later those excuses probably go out, too.
"I don't think they will make a move at any stage. What do you get out of it? They could do a lot of homework [for a new coach] over a period of time if things went bad but let's hope it's not going to be that way.
"It would be ridiculous to give an extension when you don't have results earlier in the year, and they still may come home and make the eight late. You just wait."
The big question remains this – what if the Pies fall apart early in the season? It's not inconceivable to think they could be 4-8 come the mid-season bye for they face five of last year's finalists in the opening nine rounds, while an emerging St Kilda and a revamped Essendon also feature in rounds four and five. Not to mention the old enemy Carlton in round seven.
"It would be ridiculous to give an extension when you don't have results earlier in the year, and they still may come home and make the eight late. You just wait."
- Collingwood great Tony Shaw
The Blues are expected to be a bottom-six side again but won the corresponding clash by 15 points last year, prompting an upheaval of the Pies' game plan and president Eddie McGuire to reveal he had questioned whether it was time he step down, only to be talked out of this by his two boys.
McGuire then faced questions as to whether he would have the strength to sack Buckley – also a long-time friend – if required. He said he would do what's in the best interests of the club.
That could be easier said than done, for it could be argued he then would all be admitting the managed handover from Mick Malthouse to Buckley after the losing 2011 grand final had been a failure. The Pies did reach a preliminary final in Buckley's first year but, having overhauled a premiership list, have since slipped to eighth (14 wins), 11th (11 wins), 12th (10 wins) and 12th (nine wins).
There is good reason for optimism this year. Five of last year's wins came after the mid-season break due a tightened defence and a healthy Scott Pendlebury. That would have been six had it not been for a 65-metre bomb by Hawthorn's Jack Fitzpatrick in round 23. To reach the finals this year, the Pies will need to find a way to secure three more wins through the year (North Melbourne secured eighth spot with 12 wins last year).
Buckley has stepped down from his weekly Monday-night spot on Fox Footy's AFL 360, a wise move which could help dim the spotlight on him, for by appearing he only feeds the media beast after those weekends when a match has been lost. But should the Pies fall off the pace, it won't stop the restless faithful from being heard, regardless of Buckley's esteemed place in the history of a club this year celebrating its 125th birthday.
Collingwood's run into the mid-season bye:
Hot or cold Pies? You pick:
R1: v Western Bulldogs (MCG)
R2: v Richmond (MCG)
R3: v Sydney Swans (SCG)
R4: v St Kilda (Etihad Stadium)
R5: v Essendon (MCG)
R6: v Geelong (MCG)
R7: v Carlton (MCG)
R8: v GWS (Spotless Stadium)
R9: v Hawthorn (MCG)
R10: v Brisbane (MCG)
R11: v Fremantle (Domain Stadium)
R12: v Melbourne (MCG)