One Nation threat in Callide rises as Queensland LNP MP Jeff Seeney retires
Updated
The retirement of LNP stalwart and former deputy premier Jeff Seeney will make it harder for the party to ward off One Nation in the central Queensland seat of Callide, political analysts say.
Mr Seeney, who has represented Callide since 1998, told State Parliament yesterday he would not recontest the next election that is widely expected to be held within the year.
Paul Williams from Griffith University's Political school said Mr Seeney's retirement from Queensland Parliament would leave a political vacuum in Callide.
"This sort of country in central western Queensland is ripe for One Nation, and the fact we have yet another longstanding high-profile member who would have a strong personal vote attached to his constituency departing the scene, it does leave a political vacuum," Dr Williams said.
He said Pauline Hanson's One Nation would get a very big vote, but the LNP should retain the seat.
"I would be very surprised if One Nation polled less than about 33 per cent of the vote in Callide, but what will save that seat for the LNP is the fact that the Labor party will run third and will preference the LNP over and above One Nation," he said.
Dr Williams said it would be the same in the seat of Southern Downs, which Lawrence Springborg will not recontest.
"They [One Nation] will capitalise big time on the fact that Jeff Seeney is no longer around," he said.
"They will capitalise big time and try and talk about how the LNP is a Brisbane people takeover.
"But at the end of the day it will probably be Labor preferences that will save the LNP candidates in those seats."
Callide seat under threat
ABC election analyst Antony Green said Mr Seeney's 10 per cent two-party preferred margin would be threatened.
"It's been in National and LNP hands for decades," he said.
"It did come close to being lost to One Nation in both 1998 and 2001 — the margin fell under 3 per cent — and with the re-emergence of One Nation and the changing boundaries, you'd expect Callide will also be of interest at this election for One Nation.
"Even as late as 2015, John Bjelke-Petersen finished second as the Palmer United [Party] candidate.
"It's the sort of seat where One Nation and other conservative parties have a history of doing well."
He said the recently announced electoral redistribution had shifted the seat a little north and weakened it slightly.
Seeney's retirement came as a 'surprise'
The LNP admits the central Queensland seat would be difficult to keep in its fold.
LNP president Gary Spence said Mr Seeney's announcement was not expected.
"This news came as something of a surprise so there'll be no doubt there'll be a number of people will be considering their options in the seat of Callide," Mr Spence said.
"I expect we will have two or three very, very good candidates, maybe more.
"As we did upon the announcement of the retirements of Lawrence Springborg and Ian Rickuss, the LNP will move to open nominations for preselection shortly."
Mr Spence said Mr Seeney would also be involved.
"I'm sure that he will be keeping a very close eye on the next LNP candidate for Callide and will have valuable counsel as the LNP prepares for the coming election," he said.
Topics: liberal-national-party-queensland, political-parties, government-and-politics, electoral-system, state-parliament, parliament, one-nation, brisbane-4000, qld, australia, bundaberg-4670
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