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The Turnbull effect: Labor leads Coalition by 10 points in horror Newspoll as Pauline Hanson polls massive primary vote

Every Monday to Friday I'll be delivering a personally-curated newsletter. Call it the double espresso of news – the morning news kickstart for busy people who want to know what they need to know before they get going.

Latika Bourke

1. Turnbull's horror poll

Regular readers of Double Shot do not need me to remind them that on the day Malcolm Turnbull knifed Tony Abbott for the prime ministership, he cited 30 bad Newspolls. 

So one man will be waking up pleased, if only through schadenfreude, and that of course is Tony Abbott. The results are "disastrous," for the Turnbull government, writes Michelle Grattan, who for the past fortnight has been invoking her memories of how Paul Keating's parliamentary aggression played out with voters as a caution against the enthusiasm within the Coalition for Turnbull's newfound bullishness against Shorten. [The Conversation]

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Abbott: 'We will drift to defeat'

Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott appears on the Bolt Report to share some of his 'five-point plan' for the Coalition.

Abbott's warning last week that the government desperately needs to start talking to the disaffected coalition voters who prefer Pauline Hanson and her motley crew of conspiracy-theory-touting candidates is vindicated by today's horror Newspoll. 

Hanson is now polling 10 per cent outright. And the Coalition's primary under Turnbull is now five points lower than what it was when he rolled Abbott in September 2015. [David Crowe/The Australian]

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And in Queensland, One Nation is polling a whopping 30 per cent, according to Reach Tel polling commissioned by the left-wing Australia Institute. [Fleur Anderson/Financial Review] [Stephanie Anderson/ABC]

The Coalition of the Liberal and National parties is at risk, writes Chris Uhlmann. [ABC]

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The whopping 10-point lead Labor now owns over the Coalition disguises the opposition's own low primary of 37 per cent. 

Remember what Anthony Albanese told me last year: Labor needs a primary with a 4 in front of it. [Catch up]

Most embarrassing for Turnbull is that Bill Shorten is close to meeting him in the personal approval stakes. [ David Crowe/The Australian]
So where does this leave Tony Abbott? 
Well, in all the glee exhibited by Abbott's opponents in the media and in the partyroom, delighted with the spectacle of heavyweights like Mathias Cormann telling the former PM to shut his hypocritical trap at last, something very significant was missed. [ Adam Gartrell/Fairfax]
Abbott set a trap for Turnbull and his moderate allies in the Cabinet and they fell right in. 
Yes, Abbott was hypocritical in calling for a conservative agenda he was too afraid or too incompetent to deliver himself, but what happened last week was that Turnbull and Christopher Pyne said very loudly and very clearly "no" to those ideas. 
These are the ideas that, whether the progressive left like it or not, are resonating amongst Hanson voters. The very voters Cory Bernardi quit the Liberal party to try and attract as a 'Conservative'.
Christopher Pyne may have been right when he coined the phrase 'Conski'.

Christopher Pyne says the Coalition won't be slashing spending. Photo: Latika Bourke

Most staggering was Christopher Pyne's admission that "we won't be slashing spending" because the 2014 attempt failed. This would alarm centre-right Liberals who don't care for the populist lines on immigration but care above all about the state of the budget and the level of government spending. It also makes a mockery of Treasurer Scott Morrison's claim that Australia does not have a revenue problem but a spending problem. Which is it? 
In the Cabinet's attempt to shut down Abbott, they also said loud and clear to those disaffected voters that the broad church is not so broad after all, at least not under Turnbull and that they will not be attempting to speak to those voters.
And that is why what Abbott did last week actually reinforces Turnbull's decline as prime minister even if he blew himself up in the process. 
And that was before today's horror poll. 
Tony Abbott examines the label on the tie of Andrew Sukkar with Kevin Andrews during a division during the Omnibus Bill at Parliament House in Canberra on Wednesday 14 September 2016. Photo: Andrew Meares

Some of the MPs describing themselves as Tony Abbott's 'deplorables'. Recently promoted Victorian MP Michael Sukkar (right) and former cabinet minister Kevin Andrews (centre) with former prime minister Tony Abbott. Photo: Andrew Meares

Peter Van Onselen has a cracker story today. A group of conservatives calling themselves "The Deplorables" set out a strategy to attack Turnbull and engineer Abbott back into Cabinet. [ The Australian]
Their "strategy" was obviously a corker – Abbott remains on the backbench and two of the conservatives named, Michael Sukkar and Zed Seselja, have been promoted into Turnbull's ministry. Dot, dot, dot!
In the rest of politics news:
The government will move to ban foreign donations to political parties. [ Sky News]
Labor will use Parliament to try and legislate against the independent Fair Work Commission's decision to cut back Sunday penalty rates, proving the backlash against accepting the advice of experts is not just confined to the populist right. [ Amy Remeikis/Fairfax]
Labor wants to make it so that penalty rate reductions can't amount to any cut in take-home pay. [ Julia Holman/ABC]
The Coalition's proposed company tax cut would provide no benefit for years, finds the Grattan Institute. [ Peter Martin/The Age]
Indonesia President Joko Widodo, left, walks with Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull in Sydney on Sunday.

Indonesian President Joko Widodo with Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull in Sydney on Sunday. Photo: AAP

Indonesian President Joko Widodo's visit to Australia appears to be a success. [Mark Kenny/Fairfax]

But Australia does not appear willing to conduct joint patrols with Jakarta in the South China Sea.

Practically, Indonesia will take Australian sugar at a lower tariff and buy more beef. [Deborah Snow/Fairfax]

2. UK Labour's woes

You can't make this stuff up. 

After losing a heartland Labour seat to the Tories in last week's byelections, Jeremy Corbyn took to the stage to thank his "SNPs" ('Scottish National Party') instead of his Labour "MSPs" ('Members of Scottish Parliament'). 

It might not have been such a cringe-worthy gaffe if Labour hadn't suffered its worst ever defeat in Scotland in the 2015 election. It was routed by the SNP, which won 56 of the 59 Scottish seats in the UK parliament.

But Corbyn's woes go far deeper than a verbal slip. He's urging supporters not to give up on Labour, an admission of its very risk.

Deputy Leader Tom Watson is questioning where the left-wing heavyweights who backed Corbyn in for a second time for the leadership are now with the chips well and truly are down. [BBC]

Corbyn insists he will be leader at the 2020 election. 

3. Russian march 

People lay flowers at the place where Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov was gunned down a year ago, marking the anniversary of his killing, in Moscow, with St. Basil Cathedral in the background, Russia, Saturday, Feb. 27, 2016. More than 20,000 people marched across downtown Moscow Saturday in memory of the slain Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov to mark the first anniversary of his killing. (AP Photo/Pavel Golovkin)

People lay flowers at the place where Boris Nemtsov was gunned down. Photo: AP

Thousands of Russians have marched to honour a Kremlin critic, the former deputy prime minister Boris Nemtsov, who was gunned down in 2015. [BBC]

And a really insightful piece by the ABC's London bureau coordinating producer on the mammoth task of obtaining visas for two Australian journalists to travel to Russia to report. [Emily Bryan/ABC]

4. War in Syria

The Syrian army is just a few kilometres from Palmyra, which Islamic State took back in December. 

It follows Islamic State's retreat from the city of al-Baba which it lost to rebels backed by Turkey. [Reuters]

5. Oscars 2017 [Full list of nominees]

Syrian Civil Defense workers (known as White Helmets) search through the rubble after airstrikes in the village of Hass in the Idlib province, Syria, on Wednesday, October 26, 2016.

Syrian Civil Defense workers (known as White Helmets) search through the rubble after air strikes in the village of Hass in the Idlib province, Syria. Photo: AP

I just began watching the documentary White Helmets on Netflix on the weekend. If you haven't seen it, you absolutely must. The scene where they rescue a one-week-old baby from rubble is incredibly moving and raw. 

The documentary was made by Raed Saleh and Khaled Khatib of the White Helmets, who had visas to enter Donald Trump's America but the pair will not attend the ceremony. [Fairfax]

Oscars 2017 is already shaping up to be one of the most political awards ceremonies in recent years. 

The six directors nominated for Best Foreign Language Film have already issued a joint statement condemning "fanaticism and nationalism" on the rise in the United States and around the world. [Daniel Kreps/Rolling Stone]

Meryl Streep leads the frontrunners ready to speak their mind on the state of the world. [BBC]

Real life mother and son from the film <i>Lion</i> Saroo and Sue Brierley.

Real life mother and son from the film Lion Saroo and Sue Brierley. Photo: Edwina Pickles

And final word goes to Tim Dick, who has written a lovely column on Lion and how Saroo Brierely's story underlines how important it is that Australia maintains its generous spirit. It is a really worthwhile read and my must-read for today. [The Sydney Morning Herald]

6. Snake is back

One of the highlights of last year was my trip to Helsinki to study their success in establishing a start-up economy.

The story of Nokia is at the heart of the Finnish tech sector's story. Once the giant of the mobile phone market, its demise spawned the need for the economy to diversify. 

At the Slush start-up conference I attended, there was much song and dance about Nokia's announcement that it was re-entering the smartphone market and lots of rumours about the comeback of the first mobile phone game: Snake.

The new Nokia 3310 mobile phone, developed by HMD Global OY, in dark blue, warm red and yellow, sits on display during a product launch event in London, U.K., on Friday, Feb. 24, 2017. Licensee HMD Global says more Nokia-branded models to launch in first half of 2017. Photographer: Luke MacGregor/Bloomberg

The new Nokia 3310 mobile phone. Photo: Bloomberg 

Three new Nokia Android phones have been announced plus the resurrection (with some additions) of the 3310 and – yes – it's got Snake in colour.  The 3310 will set you back $52. [Arjun Kharpal/CNBC]

Does this mean the consumables of my early twenties are now officially "retro?" I'm feeling old!

And that's it from me today – you can follow me on Facebook for more.

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