When the decision to build French submarines in Australia was made last year, Brexit hadn't happened, and the idea that Donald Trump had a serious chance of becoming president of the United States still seemed far fetched.
Those events – along with the increasing assertiveness of Russia and China in their respective spheres – show how the context in which we might see the strategic implications of that decision can change rapidly.
Middle powers – such as Australia and France – are scrabbling to ensure support for multilateralism survives the current tumult in Washington and reassessing the order of things around the world.
Following the French submarine deal, French foreign minister Jean-Marc Ayrault is in Australia this week with a high-powered business delegation to sign an upgraded strategic partnership agreement.
The ambition of this, he tells the Financial Review, is "to bring all areas of our cooperation [political, economic and cultural] up to the level we have reached in defence".
"I have come with a large delegation of French companies which have realised that the time has come to increase their presence in Australia."
The delegation includes representatives from the energy, aeronautics, oil and gas, banking, water, construction, transport and agricultural sectors.
Ayrault says the upgrading of a strategic partnership first signed in 2012 "will intensify our exchanges on security, counter-terrorism and climate change, as well as our cooperation in the Pacific and Indian Oceans".
Australia's role in intelligence and cyber-security, particularly its capacity for offensive cyber-security, has become a key factor in its relations with a number of allies, including France
But the French foreign minister's visit will also lead to the signing of academic and research agreements between leading Australian and French universities.
Ayrault has been an outspoken critic in recent months of Russia – warning France could respond with "retaliatory measures" if Russia sought to meddle in the country's looming presidential election, as it has been accused of doing in the United States.
Confused signals
But he has been equally vocal about the confused signals coming out of the White House, and earlier this month dubbed the Trump administration's stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict "confused and worrying" and expressed concern over the future of the nuclear deal with Iran.
He spoke out about the proposed Trump visa ban, saying "the unilateral position to forbid the issuing of visas under the pretext of combating terrorism in America is very concerning and not at the right time".
And just this week, he took to Twitter after Trump said people were now afraid to go to Paris, because "Paris is no longer Paris". Ayrault tweeted that 3.5 million US tourists had visited France last year.
Asked whether he feared multilateralism and the institutions that play a central role in it may be a casualty of US disengagement in international affairs, Ayrault says that "at this stage, the positions of the new US administration are far from set in stone".
"Therefore it is important to avoid making assumptions. It is, however, the appropriate time to convince our new American interlocutors that it is very important for the United States to remain engaged in the world, and for it to continue to support fair free trade and contribute to the multilateral system, to development assistance, and for it to understand the positive role the European Union and the transatlantic relationship play for the United States.
"We need to stay level-headed and engage in dialogue with this administration coming into power, but also remain vigilant. France will draw its own conclusions."
Ayrault says France is "honoured by Australia's choice" on the submarine contract, "and bound by it".
"There will of course be unprecedented industrial cooperation with [submarine builder] DCNS and exclusive technology transfers to Australia.
"We are beginning a renewed partnership for 50 years. We have proposed to continue developing, here in Australia, the ecosystem that France has built around its own shipyards, which is a genuine pillar of our sovereignty.
"It is a gigantic project, both to design and build together the submarines and to imagine what tomorrow's technologies will be – the technologies that will ensure the Shortfin Barracuda retains its superiority."
But the relationship between the two countries is being escalated at a time of increasing global tensions, which must inevitably change the view of relationships between middle powers.
Universal values
"France's diplomacy is built on essential values: the rule of law, both within our societies and on the international stage; the value of collective action and multilateralism; commitment to human rights, to freedom, to respect for diversity and to an open world; and the imperative of solidarity with the weakest, whether they are our citizens or developing countries", Ayrault says.
"These values are now under threat. From terrorism, of course. From the behaviour of certain partners who do not respect international law – as we have seen in the East of Ukraine, for example. And more globally, from the temptation of nationalism and isolationism.
"So those who share these universal values need to be mobilised to promote them. Australia is one of the countries that believes in these values and responds accordingly. We are seeing that currently in the Middle East, in our shared struggle against Daesh."
Asked if the changing dynamics of the super powers require middle powers to be more independent and assertive, he says the choice of independence is a long-standing one, reaffirmed by France after the Second World War.
"That position does not mean that we do not consider the United States as a constant ally, nor does it mean we are not an active member of NATO, nor does it stop us being a spearhead in efforts to strengthen the defence of Europe.
"But we retain our freedom and independence, when we consider it to be in our interest. That is what the saying describing our relationship with the United States sums up so well: we are 'allies but not aligned'.
"We therefore invest in our own assets, whether we are talking of diplomacy, defence, arms manufacturing or intelligence. This requires us to dedicate the necessary resources– this is the price of freedom! I believe that this is something vital in these times of uncertainty and multiform threats.
"Of course, France also has other assets: it is the fifth largest economy in the world, a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, and a cornerstone of the European Union. And it nurtures its 'soft power'. Above all, it never gives up in its efforts in support of peace, prosperity, and a fairer, more inclusive world."
But do middle powers need to "band together" more in determining the right approach when confronted by a more aggressive Russia, a more uncertain United States presence in international affairs, and the growth of China?
"I think that countries that share the same values have to work together, particularly in a multilateral framework, within the United Nations or elsewhere", he says.
"France and Australia contribute to the vitality of a great deal of these forums, such as the G20.
"That is what we were successfully able to do at the COP21 to conclude the Paris Climate Agreement. It is a method that we will undoubtedly need to use for other issues, for example to defend an open global trade system, which is regulated and based on fairness and reciprocity."
Climate change negotiations
France has taken a leading role in climate change negotiations in recent years and Ayrault has a somewhat pointed message on the issue for Australia, given the current politics of the domestic energy security debate, but one also based on the technological capabilities of French firms.
"I think that Australia has some wonderful advantages that would help it in its energy transition", he says.
"First, [it has] geographical advantages: plentiful sunshine, open spaces, high wind-power potential and an ocean surrounding it. Next, it has scientific advantages, thanks to its excellent universities and its research centres.
"The energy transition is a long-term opportunity that several Australian states have been able to exploit. French companies can also provide their expertise, as Neoen is doing in the field of solar energy and regarding wind power with the Hornsdale project. EDF Renewable Energies has also forged a partnership with Carnegie Wave Energy, which is developing wave energy technology.
"I would like to add that the development of this type of energy allows Australians to reconcile their lifestyle with their interest in nature conservation. Australia is also a country with very rich biodiversity, including the Great Barrier Reef, which needs to be protected. And we support Australia's efforts in this respect. "
France is one of the few European powers to still have a significant interest in developments in our region, given the large number of French citizens living in the Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. So its view of developments in the South China Sea and of what should be the appropriate response to China's assertive position are significant
"Our presence overseas is a strong component of French identity", Ayrault says.
"We have interests to defend, but also responsibilities in the regions where overseas French communities are located, including in the Pacific and Indian Ocean regions.
"France has a military presence in these two oceans, and we are taking part in securing them alongside Australia, whether that means helping to fight piracy in the Indian Ocean or to tackle illegal fishing in the Pacific Ocean.
"France is also very committed to humanitarian assistance in the Pacific region, cooperating closely with Australia through the France-Australia-New Zealand trilateral disaster relief arrangement.
"As regards the South China Sea, France is committed to compliance with international law and freedom of navigation and overflight. France will continue to sail its ships and fly its aircraft everywhere where operational needs command it and where international law authorises it to do so."
Laura Tingle is The Australian Financial Review's political editor
