Tony Abbott could try to wound Malcolm Turnbull if hopes of becoming prime minister fade
Updated
Tony Abbott is morphing from leadership aspirant into political assassin and the transition is deadly.
Because if Mr Abbott abandons hope of ever being prime minister again, he might settle for mortally wounding Malcolm Turnbull and letting someone else bury the corpse.
The speech he gave at the Making Australia Right book launch reeked of a man itching to pull the trigger on a Prime Minister he sees as spineless and lacking a moral core.
His hatred is profound, his anger is deepening and his impatience is growing. His disdain for Mr Turnbull leached through every word. It was a dress rehearsal for a showdown where he will define victory as both men walking away losers.
Mr Abbott briefly hid behind the cover of the essayists' complaints, as he took aim at the Liberal Party which under Mr Turnbull had become "Labor-lite".
But he broke into the open when he said "the authors are not the only ones who are disappointed and disillusioned". No-one is more disillusioned than Tony.
His anger is not limited to Mr Turnbull but spread widely across those colleagues who conspired in his execution: chief among them Julie Bishop and Scott Morrison. It extends to those who voted against him and even staffers who have since taken jobs with traitors.
He's also irked by commentators, like the conservative essayists, who find fault with his tenure, despite a long litany of achievements. He listed them in the speech and, of course, began with "the boats being stopped".
The more he muses on his premiership, the more his initial, modest confession of sin fades against the recitation of heroic virtues. The grand failure of his first budget is now reinterpreted as a loss of nerve in his troops and the intransigence of an obstructionist Senate.
It was simply a blueprint before its time rather than one poorly conceived and badly executed.
Winning his job back is a dream Mr Abbott still holds but hope is fading. He must be aware only about a dozen Liberals would follow him over the top in a direct assault on Mr Turnbull.
And the Prime Minister is now defended by some of the leading figures in the right, like the immigration and finance ministers. Few want to repeat the agony of another leadership spill and fewer still believe Mr Abbott offers salvation if the incumbent becomes untenable.
The thought that has long sustained Mr Abbott is that nothing can now be considered impossible in an Australian political landscape littered with the bodies of leaders and improbable resurrections.
He draws comfort from the rise of the corpse of Kevin Rudd but that Lazarus moment was brief and Mr Rudd offered something which Mr Abbott lacks: the chance to claw back some popular support and save marginal seats.
Mr Abbott's speech also shows he interprets the profound changes across the Western world as the times changing to suit him: a day when people tired of a weak leader will turn to a strong one, when a nation weary of the self-righteous, moralising left and a limp directionless right find comfort in the black-and-white prescriptions of a hard man.
But that dream founders on the parts of Mr Abbott's record that he does not list: the tin ear for judging the popular mood, the contradictions and the back-downs.
All those hopes are now fading and Mr Abbott seems to be considering plan B. If a dozen faithful is not enough to ensure victory, it might be enough to wound Mr Turnbull so badly that the party turns to someone, anyone else.
It might work. Mr Turnbull's grip on his party is not strong and the gravity of One Nation on the right is terrifying the Nationals and threatens to tear the Coalition apart.
A badly wounded Prime Minister might be abandoned by his troops as they put individual political survival above every other fear. It is certainly a show we have seen before.
But it would be a bitter victory and it would take with it all hope of redemption for the Coalition.
Topics: federal-government, political-parties, liberals, turnbull-malcolm, abbott-tony, australia
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