A Chicken Is Not Pillage

Conderence Championships 2017

I actually have a great deal of sympathy for the Dallas Cowboys.  Objectively, they did almost everything they had to to win. Zeke ran for 125, Dez Bryant played a championship type game, Dak controlled the ball well.  In the end, they succumbed to Aaron Rodgers and his wizardry.  That's all I can really say.

New England, on the other hand, really did not look 'great' against Houston.  That game should have been a blowout.  They will have to pick it up to win the Hunt trophy this week.

Side note:  Kudos to the NFL for returning the Pro-bowl to AFC v. NFC.  That never should have been changed to such a ridiculous 'fantasy' format in the first place.  Fandom has it's own peculiar hierarchy of engagement, Team, opponents-division, conference then players seems to be the norm.  In the realm of fantasy football, players are useful tools.  Fantasy 'owners' are engaged with aggregate points, not the game on the field or the score at the end.  That's why they call it "fantasy".

NFC:

Green Bay (4) at Atlanta (2)

The expert consensus seems to be that the Falcons will make their second Super Bowl.  The betting and fan consensus would have the Packers making their sixth.  I'm finding it hard to even remotely remain analytic about this game, because the only word I can use to describe the play of Aaron Rodgers and the packer offense is "magical".  Atlanta 'should' be able to run away with this on the legs of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, stopping the pressure and setting up Matt Ryan for a 350 yard passing performance.  Still, Green Bay just finds the right play at the right time, against a suspect defense.  I gotta follow the sorcery on this.

Green Bay - 34, Atlanta 31

AFC:

Pittsburgh (3) at New England (1)

The Steelers season in a nutshell: at Heinz field three rivers, Pittsburgh methodically scored 3 touchdowns on their first 3 possessions.  They clubbed Miami over the head with what can be the most impressive offense in the league.  At Arrowhead, Pittsburgh scored zero touchdowns, and yet strangely won on a record 6 field goals.   18 points of offense, all on the foot of the Boswell.  Away from home, the Steelers have looked anemic all season, relying on a super human effort by LeVeon Bell and the kicking of Boswell to get the AFC championship.  It will take more than that to beat the Hatriots in Foxborough.  James Harrison played like a man possessed against KC, but Brady isn't Smith.  The only way to beat New England is consistent pressure which I doubt the Steelers can muster.  And Belichick/McDaniels won't settle for only two touchdowns.  The Hatriots will be going to their record 9th show.

Pittsburgh - 17, New England 31

Divisional Picks 2017

Wildcard Weekend could have so easily been called 'Blowout Weekend".  The Raiders fell apart against Houston, and as much as many want to blame Cook's first start, the collapse was fairly universal.  Both offensive and defensive lines played, if you want to call it that, with no urgency or drive.  The Steelers dominated Miami from the start, beginning with two passing drives for touchdown and then just letting LeVeon Bell power all the way down the field for their third in as many possessions.  It is rare that you see a team make a statement so thorough.  Seattle did not look as invincible as the teams of 2013 and 2014, but they handled the Lions easily.  The game most fun to watch was certainly the Giants against the Packers.  It looked like it would be a contest until two things happened.  Odell Beckham Jr. forget his hands in the tropics, Aaron Rodgers threw a Hail Mary to Cobb that should be refered to as his typical Sunday anymore.  From that point forward, Green Bay dominated and did not look back.  The price of that win, however, may prove to be extreme, with Jordy Nelson going down to one of the more vicious legal hits seen in recent years.

The Wildcard teams are all eliminated, and the divisional champs advance.  With what we've seen from those divisional teams, this weekend could, could mind you, offer some of the best football of the year.

NFC:

Seattle (3) at Atlanta (2)

These are not the same teams we got used to seeing earlier this decade.  The Seahawks are more malleable and actually better at adapting to game dynamics.  They no longer rely on impenetrable defense, because the defense can be penetrated.  The Seahawk offense is also not as explosive as we have seen even 1 year ago.  The Falcons, on the other hand, have one of the best offenses I've seen since the 2013 Broncos broke all records.  They simply have little to brag about on defense.  Historically, the immovable defense will defeat the unstoppable offense the majority of the time.  In my view, this game comes down to one player, Russell Wilson.  He showed last week that he still has elite talent, and he will have to show it today if the 'Hawks are going to beat the Falcons in the Georgia Dome.  I'm just not certain that he can outscore Ryan and the Falcons.

Seattle - 28, Atlanta - 34

Green Bay (4) at Dallas (1)

I always encounter games I really don't want to pick because either choice is wrong until the game is over.  This is just such a game.  (Truthfully 3 of this weekend's games are of that caliber.)  How can one possibly pick against Aaron Rodgers and the magic he has produced in the last 5 weeks?  How can one pick against the best offensive line in football (which despite caterwaul IS one of the best ever)?  It is cliche to write that the two Pro-bowl rookies running the Dallas offense will wither in the heady playoff atmosphere.  It is far too easy to point out the flaws in the Green Bay defense especially against a ball control running and roll out attack.  I could rely on the cop-out of the Cowboys having home field, but historically the Taj Majones has not as kind to the 'Boys as you would expect.  Instead, I will posit this:  Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback currently playing.  His confidence, leadership and playmaking ability could take Green Bay straight to the SooperBowl.  But he doesn't have his best weapon in Jordy Nelson.  The best coach currently in contention (for the NFC) is Jason Garrett. He has his players tight on technique, pursuit, execution, and delivery.  This Dallas team is a force to be reckoned with, unless Rodgers can wizard some amazing things out of his butt.  I have to go with the Cowboys on this one.

Green Bay - 24, Dallas 30

AFC:

Houston (4) at New England (1)

Very few quarterbacks currently playing have beaten the BB Empire.  Osweiler, strangely, is one of them.  But he had Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware, Shane Ray, T.J. Ward and the No Fly Zone then.  He doesn't now.  Even fewer Quarterbacks have beaten the BB Empire in the playoffs, and Peyton Manning is retired.  Only two teams have beaten the BB Empire in Foxborough during the playoffs, the Jets and the Ravens.  The Hatriots have the best defense against scores in the NFL, a stat that most have ignored because the Hatriots are generally hated.  This game is so easy to call, but yet the nation outside of New England still hopes for a miracle upset.

If you will allow me an aside, the Patriots are one of the things that ail the NFL.  It is undeniable that Belichick is the best coach in NFL History.  There will always be argument about whether Brady is the GOAT QB.  But the arrogance of that team and its owner disengages fans.  After SB 49, that farting filth-besmirched arsehole Robert Kraft demanded airtime to tell the whole world how unpatriotic we are if we don't hold up the Patriots as The True America's Team.  Not one team in the league is so obsessed, on the field and off, with it's own superiority.  Any call or missed call (in their opinion) becomes a game crisis.  Brady is a great player, but he is detached and condescending.  Where Peyton Manning engaged fans with his humor, his class, and his good heart, Brady gets seen on our TVs looking lustfully at a mattress in a private vault below a bank.  Almost every fan in the country fully expects the Patriots to win SB 51, and we are all (outside of New England) revulsed by the thought.  More speeches telling us what to believe from Kraft.  More records pointing to the superiority of the Hatriots over our chosen teams.  It's like the asshole who flaunts his trophy wife, telling us how he could have our wife's virtue if he would demean himself to do so.  Really, the Patriots are a great team, now.  But they aren't likeable, not at all, and the more they demand to be the face of the NFL, the more they will hurt the organization as a whole.

Houston - 10, New England - 42

Pittsburgh (3) at Kansas City (2)

Oh boy, here we go again.  Two exceptional teams that if they play their game will move on to the Championship.  I cannot express my grudging respect for KC more.  They have played the most solid football this season in terms of ball-control, special teams, assignment, and game plan.  And still, no team this year has marched onto a field and imposed their will the way Pittsburgh did last week.  They didn't come out and mix the pass and run and make the defense question.  They came out with two straight possessions of passing for touchdowns, telling the Dolphins that they have no hope to stop the pass.  They then came out and ran a straight rushing attack for another score.  That was deliberate and total domination.   That wasn't a coach making a statement, it was Tomlin writing his signature on these playoffs.  Still, the Chiefs are not the Dolphins and they are at home.  Tyreek Hill is an X-factor like no other.  The Chiefs control the ball better than any team in the NFL.  They also don't seem to wear down as the game goes on, which the Steelers seem prone to.  Early this week, I was going with the Chiefs all the way, but now ...

Pittsburgh - 27,  Kansas City -24

Wildcard Weekend - 2017

First, of course, the season pick numbers. 

Last Week:  11 - 5,  69%,   Overall:  163 - 93,  64%

That's a better record than all but one of ESPN's NFL Experts.  By that metric of competition, this was the best I have ever done in a season.  I'll take it.

There really isn't much to say about the Black Monday coaching situation because nothing really happened.  Coach McCoy is out in San Diego and Chip Kelly is gone by the Bay.  No surprises at all from the firings.  What was surprising if one doesn't believe rumors, was Coach Kubiak retiring in Denver.  If I am honest, this is still a little too personal and emotional for me to write about right now.  It is one of those rumors I had hoped was true, for Kubiak's sake as much as anything else, but is still painful for those of us fans entrenched in the Broncos family.  If one steps away just a little bit, and attempts to remain objective, than it is certain that the Head Coaching job in Denver is probably the most coveted  of all the vacancies currently in the NFL.  The most high profile candidate for an HC job is Kyle Shanahan, OC of the Falcons, who truly has his pick of positions after Atlanta ends their season.  No one has to spell this out for Broncos fans.  Yes, Shanahan is young and untested as the Head guy.  Yes, Elway is a demanding boss with the highest of expectations.  But the Denver defense is set and the offense needs some balance and a little work for Denver to contend again even next year.  Mike Shanahan is the best coach Denver has ever had, and his son is the best coaching option the Broncos faithful could hope for.  The NFL needs its stories and to re-engage the fans emotionally.  The Broncos family does that, just as their embrace of Peyton Manning spurred record veiwership and joy.  It is a "duh now" decision, for Elway, Kyle Shanahan, the Broncos and their fans, and for the NFL itself to get Kyle Shanahan to Denver.  Make it happen.

Since the first game is quickly approaching, on with the picks:

AFC:

Oakland (5) at Houston (4)

It seems that hope has been abandoned for the Radiers with the loss of both Carr and McGloin.  Connor Cook's first NFL start is in the playoffs, and the Texans defense is expected to tee off on the nOOb.  I just don't think that the Oakland offensive line will have a poor showing they did against a savage Broncos pass rush.  That O-line is still among the league's best.  Meanwhile, Brock Osweiler, arguably he biggest free agency bust in some years, starts for the Texans.  He has DeAndre Hopkins against one of the league's most suspect secondaries, but Brock's overthrow game is strong, huge even.  And the Raiders D front is defined by speed and excellent scheme play, which should contain Osweiler and harass him at will.  This will not be a pretty game by any stretch, but I'm going against conventional wisdom here at calling it ...

Oakland -19,  Houston - 13

Miami (6) at Pittsburgh (3)

This match certainly hearkens back  to history past.   Miami faced Pittsburgh, in Pittsburgh, in the AFC Championship game of their undefeated '72 season.  Both teams relied then on a power running game and stuffing the run on defense.  It seems that most times these teams have faced off in the playoffs, that has pretty well defined the meeting.  This could shape up much the same, with LeVeon Bell and Jay Ajayi doing the bulk of the lifting for these teams over the last month of the season.  That written, Pittsburgh has 3 things that the Dolphins do not, 1)  Home Field weather on their side, 2)  Ben Roeslisthberger and 3)  Antonio Brown.  I think that's enough to safely put the W in the Steeler's column.

Miami - 17, Pittsburgh - 27

NFC:

Detroit (6) at Seattle (3)

Backing into the playoffs after 3 straight losses is never, EVER, a good sign.  The only time in recent memory that such a team escaped the Wildcard with a win was when Tebow shocked the Steelers on the first play of overtime back in January 2012.  Denver had home field then.  Detroit does not.  They travel to the loudest stadium in the NFL to face one of the best defenses in the NFL.  Michael Bennett has come on like a savage beast over the last few weeks.  Seattle still has a stellar secondary.  If they are susceptible, it is to a superior ground game, which Detroit doesn't really have.  Of course, neither does Seattle.   I fully expect this game to come down to time for the Quarterbacks, and turnovers.  Edge - Seahawks.

Detroit - 17, Seattle - 24

New York Giants (5) at Green Bay (4)

Let's just get the obvious out of the way, shall we?  No  team in the last ten years has overachieved in the playoffs like the Giants have.  You simply can't look at this game and not have flashbacks to the 2011 season.  No quarterback in the NFL has performed with such ease and dominance as Aaron Rodgers over the last 4 weeks.  Ryan and Brady have been excellent all season but especially in the last 3 games, Rodgers has been nothing short of brilliant.  The weakness of the Packers is in their statistically poor defensive play, but even on that side of the ball, Green Bay has stepped up for the playoff run.  That will be apparent against the weakness of the G-men which is inconsistent offense and often mediocre play from Eli Manning.  The Giants just don't seem to be able to push the ball down the field on passing plays without serious run after catch from Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard.  If the Giants' defense can keep them in the game, which they are capable of doing, then it will come down to some magical play from those two receivers.  This is an either-or contest.  Either it will be a blowout, or a very low scoring affair.  I expect the former.

New York - 13, Green Bay - 30