For most of its life, the Turnbull Coalition government has mysteriously underperformed – like a luxury car with persistent mechanical problems.
Whether it was bad fuel supply or fouling spark plugs, pressing the accelerator pedal has too often brought lurching, smoke and the odd noisy backfire.
So it might be surprising that as Coalition MPs trickle back into the capital on Sunday for week two of the parliamentary session, many will have fresh hopes if not an actual spring in their step.
Party room morale, flat for months, is suddenly ticking up (slightly) as the long-sputtering power plant – in the form of Malcolm Turnbull – has suddenly fired, producing a sensation of forward momentum.
The situation has been more dire than many observers care to contemplate.
When Sky's Kieran Gilbert reported on Thursday that Turnbull had held one-on-one meetings with backbenchers, observers not unreasonably read this as an embattled leader attempting to head off a challenge.
Unthinkable as that might be to normal folk, the radical option of a second consecutive mid-term engine change has been reluctantly climbing up the list of remedies, as other less radical repairs have failed.
Turnbull has been drinking (herbal) tea with MPs since becoming prime minister. These contacts have included impromptu office chats, (leading to a certain amount of diary chaos in the PMO) as well as a rolling schedule of group dinners at the Lodge. Last Thursday night, for example, saw Queensland backbenchers entertained.
Have these consultations increased in response to internal discontent? Not according to the PM's aides.
This is common sense anyway and represents a marked improvement on the I-don't-suffer-fools-gladly approach Turnbull took during his first unhappy stint as Liberal leader.
But improved consultation is only one element and MPs have been increasingly inclined to name the bigger problem: Turnbull's failure to peg back Bill Shorten.
Irrespective of the desperation motivating it, Turnbull's pivot to full attack mode has stopped that talk in its tracks. For now at least.
It is an open question as to how well 'Angry Mal' has gone over with voters. The sight of the Prime Minister spitting vitriol across the dispatch box is a known turn-off in middle Australia.
But for Turnbull's troops it was a welcome morale booster, especially given that the week had kicked off with depressing poll results showing the Coalition sliding at an alarming rate to be 46-54 down on Shorten's Labor.
The quixotic defection of Cory Bernardi ensured things went from bad to worse, conveying the image of a party and government in the first stages of a catastrophic collapse.
It was the concatenation of these events, spiced by Shorten's increasingly brazen use of the "Mr Harbourside Mansion" slur, that did it, but when Turnbull hit back he did so hard. So hard in fact that many of the things he said didn't bear much scrutiny.
But in the theatre of politics it was gold and its effect, instant. Up against the wall, Turnbull finally showed his troops that he can fight back. Can, and will. And he sent a message of intent to Shorten too that personal will be met with personal.
It may be wishful thinking but Turnbull's backers believe the PM has now turned a corner, and even sceptics are willing him to succeed.
But he will need to keep moving forward to kill off any murmurings around who could replace him.
Until now, it has been the absence of a compelling, or even a credible, alternative leader that has protected him most.
The threshhold question is always, would "X" unify the party and be sufficiently credible with voters to overcome the huge transaction costs of a coup?
That hurdle is an order of magnitude higher when a change has already taken place.
Still, in any dinner-table discussion of who would replace Turnbull if the metaphorical bus ran him down, names get mentioned. Abbott's has always been canvassed, if only for the fact of him still being there – think John Howard, Jeff Kennett, Colin Barnett, all of whom came back after losing the leadership. Oh, and Turnbull too, ironically.
Other names in the mix include the Treasurer, Scott Morrison, deputy leader and Foreign Minister Julie Bishop, Immigration Minister Peter Dutton, and down the track a few younger turks, Christian Porter, Angus Taylor and Josh Frydenberg.
None of these is taken particularly seriously right now, which demonstrates the point. But Dutton's inclusion on the list is notable. A few months back he would not have rated a mention, but his stock has risen as that of others has waned.
He is now discussed as the most prominent senior Turnbull minister who satisfies the other criterion of being sufficiently conservative to command loyalty from the party's right wing.
Of course, such discussions will remain mere dinner-table chatter as long as Turnbull can keep the car "moving forward", as another PM once (in)famously said.
Mark Kenny is chief political correspondent. @markgkenny
145 comments
Comment are now closed