Donald Trump's presidency means world is in for 'one hell of a ride', political insiders warn
Updated
They say Washington is a Democrat town. And yes, broadly that's true.
It's a city of bureaucrats, staffers, political tragics, media spinners and lawyers. Add to that the large African-American population and you have a consistent Democrat constituency.
But it is also an establishment city — a city of think-tanks, policy wonks, lobbyists and political professionals.
When I first arrived in DC as a correspondent just after the Obama inauguration in 2009, the place was buzzing.
America's first black president came to office promising hope and change. "Change has come to America," he said.
There was an air of optimism and renewal after eight years of George W Bush — after the wars and the economic crisis.
Mr Obama's change was careful, methodical and almost entirely predictable. Not everyone agreed with it but the city, and the country as a whole, largely seemed to know what was coming.
To say DC feels different now would be an understatement. This change — 'Trumpism' — is revolutionary.
No-one knows where it's going or what is coming, and among the most worried of all are the establishment Republicans.
People like Michael Green, a former national security adviser to Mr Bush.
"In our recent history, and perhaps throughout our entire history, we've never had a president come into office with such an unpredictable style of communication and with such alarm among our closest friends and allies," he says in an interview with Four Corners.
And David Kramer, another former Bush adviser who is now a director at the McCain Institute for International Leadership.
"[Mr Trump] is operating on his own rules, on his own instincts, and I think a lot of people are having trouble keeping up. It makes a lot of people nervous, no question," he says.
Video: David Kramer hopes the President will prove his critics wrong (Photo: Greg Nelson)
(ABC News)
But those who know the US President say no-one should be surprised.
Michael Caputo has known Mr Trump for many years. He has been an adviser and a political confidante and he ran his New York primary campaign.
Mr Caputo is a seasoned political operator with a colourful past. He's no establishment Republican.
He has worked in politics for the past 30 years — but his trajectory has been anything but conventional. He's mixed it with everyone from anti-communist rebels in Central America to the political bullies in the Kremlin.
He even once worked on a PR campaign to try to improve Vladimir Putin's image. He's not proud of that today, but he says Mr Putin wasn't such a bad guy back then.
'Everything will change' in Trump's America
I met Mr Caputo in Washington the day before the inauguration. He had come down from his home town of Buffalo, New York, to witness history. He was pumped and excited "beyond elation".
He has an easy conversational manner that belies his tough reputation. We are both about the same age and as it happens we had plenty to talk about — both of us had moved to Moscow in 1994. He went to advise on democracy and capitalise on the transition, I was there to report on it.
It is fair to say Mr Caputo has seen his fair share of confrontational and disruptive politics and his advice now is for everyone to "strap in".
"I think we're all in for a hell of a ride," he says.
"There's no question about it and that's because Donald Trump warned us from the very beginning that he's going to break some eggs … and that's what he's doing."
If the past few weeks were not proof enough, Mr Caputo says the world is going to have to get used to a totally disruptive agenda.
"It's one of the few times in American history where everything will change and I don't think everything has changed in America because of a presidential election since the 19th century," he says.
"I think it's episodic in ways we don't even know yet."
'The new abnormal'
And the world has already had a taste of just how episodic the future might be.
Mr Trump is a leader who has little regard for the international treaties frameworks and alliances that have set the parameters of post-World War II diplomacy.
His hostile phone call with Malcolm Turnbull was evidence of that.
This has been described as the "new abnormal".
Get used to it, Mr Caputo says.
"There's a lot of people in the international community who are shocked at what they're seeing out of the United States," he says.
"[Until now] we've had such shop-worn, milquetoast presidents with mealy-mouthed promises who ended up basically screwing their own people … this is a different kind of president."
Sure is. The question for the world and for Australia is how do we all deal with it.
Australia may handle Trump administration better than most
The establishment Republicans had hoped that somehow the bureaucracy and the checks and balances of office — even the gravitas of the presidency itself — might some how temper a man who built his campaign, his entire persona, on defying precedent and convention.
But Mr Trump has already redefined the rules of diplomacy by negotiating in 140 characters or less on Twitter with CAPS added for emphasis.
This certainly presents unique challenges, but Mr Green is one who believes they are challenges Australia should be able to meet more easily than most.
He says we should continue to rely on the connections and relationships that have come from our unique alliance.
"A kind of temper tantrum back [at] Trump's temper tantrum is probably a bad idea for Australian national interests," Mr Green says.
"A better way is to reinforce ties with those parts of the administration that have experience and understand how allies are indispensable for any foreign policy the US wants to pursue."
Australia, he says, is also in a strong position as part of the important Five Eyes intelligence-sharing community.
These "deep, deep relationships" are vital and they tend to survive the political winds quite well despite what is happening in the White House.
But both Mr Green and Mr Kramer argue Australia should not simply continue on as if nothing will change.
One particular area of concern is Syria and the broader war against the Islamic State (IS) group.
The President has said he is open to working with Russia to defeat IS in Syria.
The whole relationship between the US and Russia and how it evolves from here is one of the biggest issues worrying the strategic thinkers.
Mr Kramer says aligning with Russia in Syria would be a big concern, and if that happens, Australia should rethink its commitment.
"I think each country that is a partner with us in the Middle East would have to rethink its approach," he says.
"It would be a terrible mistake to align with Russia and Assad. I think Australia … would have to take a step back and try to figure out what approach to take as well. It would be a massive realignment."
As Mr Caputo says, strap in. Mr Trump is deliberately disruptive.
"If you're looking for Ronald Reagan, or John Kennedy, or the grace of George H W Bush, you're not going to get it," he says.
"We're all in for a hell of a ride."
Watch A Helluva Ride — the Trump Revolution now.
Topics: donald-trump, world-politics, us-elections, united-states
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