AL-Gov: On Tuesday, CBS Sports reported that Tommy Tuberville, who served as head coach of the Auburn University football team from 1998 to 2008, was considering seeking the GOP nomination next year. Tuberville has now confirmed the report, telling the Montgomery Advertiser that he’s “doing a poll and if I have the support, I'd really consider doing it.” The CBS report said that Tuberville would likely decide in a week or two, though Tuberville himself doesn’t appear to have said that publicly.

As we’ve noted before, Tuberville could have trouble in the GOP primary if he gets in. It’s pretty accepted that in the Yellowhammer State, University of Alabama fans far outnumber fans of Tuberville’s old Auburn Tigers. The rivalry between the Crimson Tide and the Tigers is a very serious matter, and it’s very possible that plenty of Bama supporters won’t back someone so identified with their hated foes. It also doesn’t help that Tuberville defeated Bama six years in a row and enjoyed trolling them every chance he got. And while Tuberville’s reign was mostly a success for Auburn, he resigned in 2008 after a bad season, including a 36-0 loss to Alabama, so not all Auburn fans may want him back either.

There’s also the question of Tuberville’s ties to his old state. Tuberville was born and raised in Arkansas and since he left Auburn, he’s coached at Texas Tech and Cincinnati; Tuberville only resigned as head coach at Cincinnati in December of last year. Alabama law requires the governor to be a state resident for seven years. The Advertiser says that Tuberville still resides at his home near Lake Martin, so he may still legally be allowed to run.

However, while Tuberville may have remained an Alabama resident this whole time, it doesn’t seem to have been by choice. In 2015, realtor.com reported that Tuberville lowered his asking price for his Alabama home four times between 2009 and 2013, before taking it off the market. However, Tuberville tried selling it again in June of 2015. The Tuberville family still has ties to the state, with his son debuting as an Auburn player in late 2015. Still, even if potential primary rivals can’t get Tuberville knocked off the ballot, they could at least question his connections to the state he’s hoping to run, and drive another wedge between the coach and Bama fans who still hold a grudge against him. The state requires candidates to win a majority of the vote in the primary to avoid a runoff, so Tuberville couldn't just rally Auburn fans to a plurality victory.

P.S: This is probably the first time we’ve ever cited realtor.com in a story at Daily Kos Elections. Politics is weird sometimes.

AK-Gov: Next year’s race has been developing very slowly. Gov. Bill Walker, a former Republican who was elected as an independent with a Democratic running mate, has yet to announce if he’ll seek a second term, though he says he probably will. And even if Walker runs again, it’s not clear if he’ll remain an independent, and it’s also not certain that his 2014 Democratic allies will stick with him if he does. As we’ve mentioned before, Walker has spent his whole term fighting legislative Republicans who refuse to face up to Alaska's extraordinary budget crisis, brought on by falling oil prices. Walker has pushed for policies like reinstating the state income tax that are likely unpopular, but may be the only way to fix Alaska’s budget.

Until now, we haven’t heard about any Republicans considering challenging Walker. However, the local blog Midnight Sun writes that there’s "a lot of chatter" about ex-GOP Lt. Gov. Loren Leman assembling a campaign. Leman became the first person of Native American ancestry to win statewide office in 2002, and he chose not to run again four years later. While Leman’s name came up early in the 2014 cycle as a possible Senate candidate, he didn’t go for it.

It’s very likely that there are plenty of other Republicans eyeing this post regardless of what Walker does, but there’s evidently being quiet about their interest. It’s also unclear what Democrats, if any, are seriously considering getting in. Last year, ex-Democratic Sen. Mark Begich considered mounting a write-in campaign against GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski and while he decided to stay out, he only said of a possible gubernatorial bid, “We'll let the cards play out.” If Begich ran he’d probably have no trouble winning the primary, but that’s still a very big if.

MA-Gov: Ex-state Sen. Dan Wolf hasn’t ruled out a bid against GOP Gov. Charlie Baker, and he seems to be laying the groundwork to enter the Democratic primary. Wolf, the founder and chief executive of Cape Air, recently announced that he would undertake a statewide listening tour. However, Wolf insists that, of all the people talking about running, he’s “probably the least likely to run,” and says he’s still a while away from making a decision. Wolf ran for governor in 2013 but dropped out after the State Ethics Commission ruled him ineligible to run due to contracts his company had with the state. The commission eventually created an exemption for people in that sort of situation, so Wolf is free to run if he chooses to.

Right now, ex-state budget chief Jay Gonzalez is the only declared Democratic candidate. However, Newton Mayor Setti Warren is raising money for a likely bid, though Warren insists he won’t decide until the spring. However, Attorney General Maura Healey’s name has continued to circulate as a potential candidate, and she hasn’t done much to shoot it down. Last week, the Boston Globe’s Joshua Miller tried very hard to get Healey to say definitively that she won’t challenge Baker, and she eventually agreed with Miller when he asked, “if her "message to Democrats looking for a candidate is 'find another candidate for governor, no matter what, it's not going to be me in 2018,' is that right?"

However, Healey has continued to respond to questions about her 2018 intentions with a “I plan to run for re-election,” even when questioners have explicitly asked her to be more clear about her gubernatorial intentions. There’s nothing stopping Healey from outright saying “I am not going to run for governor in 2018, period,” which actually is definitive, but she doesn’t seem to want to do that yet. Baker has very strong approval ratings, and it’s quite possible that Healey is still keeping her options open and waiting to see how things look later before she makes a final decision.

OK-Gov: Wealthy Tulsa lawyer Gary Richardson has been flirting with a bid to succeed termed-out Republican Gov. Mary Fallin for a while, and on Tuesday, he formed an exploratory committee for a possible campaign. Richardson spent $2 million on his 2002 gubernatorial run as an independent and snagged 14 percent of the vote; Democrat Brad Henry narrowly beat Republican Steve Largent by fewer than 7,000 votes, and Richardson’s stunt probably cost Team Red the governor’s mansion. This time, Richardson says he’s exploring a bid for the GOP nod.

If Richardson gets in, he’ll almost certainly have competition in the primary. Lt. Gov. Todd Lamb said in December that he’s “leaning” towards getting in. Last week, Lamb put some distance between himself and Fallin when he announced he was resigning from her cabinet, where he was serving as Small Business Advocate. Lamb, who remains lieutenant governor, put out a statement saying he couldn’t support tax increases that Fallin was pushing, declaring that they’d “harm Oklahoma’s small businesses and families, especially those in our service industry.” 

A few other Republicans have been mentioned, but there’s no sign anyone else is considering yet. Oklahoma is a very red state, but Democrats hope they’ll be able to retake this post after eight years. The only notable Democrat who is publicly considering is Scott Inman, the state House minority leader.

WI-Sen: The GOP pollster Magellan Strategies, on behalf of a group called “Committee to Defend the President” (wonder what their political leanings are?) is out with the first poll of next year’s Wisconsin Senate race, and they give Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin an early lead. Baldwin defeats Milwaukee County Sheriff and very nominal Democrat David Clarke 49-35. Magellan says that while the poll was in the field, Rep. Sean Duffy announced he wouldn’t run; in any case, Duffy trails 49-36.

The poll gives Clarke a 23-20 favorable rating, and argues he has some room to grow once he gets his name out. However, Baldwin has a 49-35 approval rating, quite a good score for a GOP poll. Clarke himself hasn’t ruled out challenging Baldwin, though he hasn’t shown any sign he’s seriously considering. However, a recent PPP survey gave Clarke a horrible 31-62 approval rating in Milwaukee County, and if he can’t get a job with Trump, he could decide that running statewide next year is a lot easier than trying to win re-election.

CO-Gov, CO-07: Democratic Rep. Ed Perlmutter has been mentioned as a possible candidate to replace termed-out Gov. John Hickenlooper next year, and we may be hearing from him sooner rather than later. Perlmutter’s campaign manager tells the Colorado Statesman that the congressman is considering a bid, and an unnamed “Democratic close to Perlmutter” says he’ll likely announce what he’s doing by the end of the month.

The Gazette recently reported that, according to people in Perlmutter’s inner circle, the congressman’s decision will at least be partially dependent on what ex-Sen. Ken Salazar does. Salazar hasn’t ruled out a bid, though more unnamed sources say the former secretary of the interior is “hesitant to join the race” due in part to family commitments. Hopefully, we’ll have a better idea where things stand soon enough.

If Perlmutter gets in, he won’t have the Democratic primary to himself regardless of what Salazar does. Ex-state Sen. Mike Johnston and businessman Noel Ginsburg are already in, while state Rep. Joe Salazar (who is apparently not related to Ken Salazar), state Sen. Michael Merrifield, and state Rep. Steve Lebsock are publicly considering; there are plenty of other Centennial State Democrats who might also be mulling a bid. Perlmutter would likely start out with more name recognition and connections than any potential primary rival except Ken Salazar and he may be strong enough to scare off other candidates, but this wouldn’t be the first time a lesser-known candidate has pulled off a primary win. Several Republicans are also thinking about getting in.

If Perlmutter leaves the House, it will lead to a scramble for his suburban Denver seat. Clinton carried the district 51-39, and most statewide Democrats carried it even during the 2014 GOP wave. To put things in perspective, Attorney General nominee Don Quick lost statewide 51-42 but lost the 7th “only” 47-45, so it will take a lot to turn this area red. A few Democrats have already made noises about running for this seat if Perlmutter doesn’t seek re-election, and the GOP may see if they can put it into play.

GA-Gov: House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams has been mentioned as a potential Democratic candidate for a long time. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has written that she's "all but certain to run," but she hasn’t said much about her plans publicly. In fact, when Atlanta Magazine directly asked her if she sees herself as a 2018 gubernatorial candidate, Abrams responded by only saying, “I see myself as the House Minority Leader, and that’s what I’m focused on now.” As we’ve said many times, that’s one of those non-answers politicians love to give when they’re considering or planning to seek a promotion but don’t want to say so yet. Abrams also writes writes romantic suspense novels under the pen name Selena Montgomery, and apparently, she also enjoys keeping people in suspense in her day job.

The only other Democrat we’ve hear express interest in a bid is ex-state Sen. Jason Carter, who lost to Republican incumbent Nathan Deal 53-45 during the 2014 GOP wave and, as far as we know, does not write romantic suspense novels. Sally Yates, who was sacked by Donald Trump as acting U.S. attorney general, has been mentioned many times as a possible candidate, but she hasn’t shown any interest publicly. A few Republicans have made noises about running to succeed the termed-out Deal, though no one has gotten in yet.

MN-Gov: Are you a Minnesota politician who isn’t thinking about running for governor next year? If so, please write to us, because we’re starting to think you may not actually exist. The latest Democrat to talk about jumping in is state Rep. Tina Liebling, who says she’s “seriously considering” and will probably decide before the legislative session ends in May.

On the GOP side, the local tipsheet Morning Take says that “some in the party” want ex-First Lady and former judge Mary Pawlenty to run. Pawlenty was recruited last cycle to run for the state’s open and swingy 2nd District, but she turned it down. It’s unclear if Pawlenty is at all interested in seeking the post her husband Tim Pawlenty held from 2003 to 2011. Morning Take also name-drops ex-state Senate Majority Leader Amy Koch, who resigned after a 2011 sex scandal but “continues to have a high-profile among Minnesota Media.” There’s also no indication Koch is actually considering, though.

KS-Gov, KS-02: Kansas’ infamous GOP Secretary of State Kris Kobach has expressed interest in running for governor, but a House bid will not be in his future. Kobach tells the National Journal that he won’t seek the 2nd District, which is being vacated by retiring GOP Rep. Lynn Jenkins. However, Kobach says he’ll decide on his 2018 plans “probably in the next few months, maybe April or May.” Kobach says he may run for governor, seek a third term as secretary of state, or take a Homeland Security job with Trump. Speaking of Kansas’ 2nd, we haven’t heard any Republicans express interest in the month since Jenkins announced her retirement, though their are plenty of potential candidates in this 56-37 Trump Topeka-based seat

Westchester County, NY Executive: While this large suburban county has become reliably blue in presidential elections, Westchester has been led by conservative Republican Rob Astorino for the last seven years. Astorino held off Democratic New Rochelle Mayor Noam Bramson 56-44 in 2013, then quickly proceeded to lose to Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo 54-40 in 2014, losing Westchester 55-42. Astorino is a potential 2018 candidate, but Cuomo is hoping to beat him this fall first.

So far, the only declared Democratic candidate is Westchester County legislator Ken Jenkins, but Cuomo and local Democrats reportedly don’t think much of him. The New York Daily News reports that Cuomo and his allies are calling other potential candidates, and he may have a few takers. Yonkers Mayor Mike Spano’s spokesperson originally told the Daily News that he told people close to Cuomo that he wouldn't run. But a few days later, Spano’s office told WAMC, the local public radio affiliate, that he’s undecided.

State Sen. George Latimer says he’ll decide in April, while Assemblyman Tom Abinanti also is talking about running. (The Daily News story didn’t mention Abinanti as one of the politicians Cuomo’s camp was reaching out to.) Assemblywoman Amy Paulin confirms she’s spoken to Cuomo’s people, but says she has “no intention right now of running,” which isn’t a no. As our 2017 elections calendar (which you should bookmark) shows, the filing deadline is July 18 for the Sept. 12 party primaries. The general election is Nov. 7.

Nassau County, NY Executive: Last fall, Republican Ed Mangano, the executive of this populous Long Island county, was indicted on federal corruption charges. Mangano hasn’t announced if he’ll seek a third term this year, but it doesn’t help him that his trial has been scheduled for January of 2018. However, unnamed local Republicans told Newsday in January that they strongly doubt that Mangano has any chance to be renominated, and the county party committee may even be picking their countywide slate soon. The GOP’s nominating convention is also scheduled for May.

No credible Republicans have entered the race, but Newsday reported last month that at least four Republicans seem to be eyeing this race. Bruce Blakeman, a longtime Long Island politician who lost the 2014 race for New York's 4th Congressional District 53-47 and currently serves as a Hempstead town councilor, “has given every indication that he is interested,” according to one unnamed GOP source. Ex-state Sen. Jack Martins, who lost a 2016 bid for the 3rd Congressional District 48-44 to Democrat Tom Suozzi (himself a former county executive), is reportedly considering, while some party members are supporting County Clerk Maureen O’Connell or Hempstead Town Receiver of Taxes Don Clavin. None of those four politicians said anything at the time, and no one appears to have said anything over the last month.

Back in 2001, Suozzi broke the GOP’s 30-year stranglehold over the Nassau County executive’s office, but he unexpectedly lost re-election to Mangano in 2009 and lost their rematch four years later. Democrats are hoping that Mangano’s problems will give them an opening, and last month, the county party endorsed Nassau County Legislator Laura Curran. However, Assemblyman Charles Levine and county Comptroller George Maragos, who was elected twice as a Republican and took a distant third place in the 2012 GOP U.S. Senate primary before switching parties, are still planning to run in the September Democratic primary.

FL-Gov: Until now, Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum has refused to acknowledge that he’s interested in seeking the Democratic nomination next year, though he’s also done nothing to tamp down on any speculation. But in an interview with Ebony Magazine, Gillum acknowledged he was interested. It’s unclear how interested, though, with Gillum declaring, “I believe in being courageous, but I don’t believe in suicide missions. I think there has to be a relevant place to make a difference and a pathway to get there.” A number of Democrats are eyeing this post and the GOP will put up a very tough fight to keep the governor’s office, so Gillum has good reason to be cautious about a bid.

Omaha, NE Mayor: Republican Jean Stothert unseated Democratic incumbent Jim Suttle in 2013, and Democrats are hoping that state Sen. Heath Mello can return the favor this spring. At the end of 2016, each candidate had raised more money than any previous Omaha mayoral candidate ever had by this point in the race; however, Stothert’s $890,000 warchest is much larger than Mello’s $427,000.

All the candidates will compete in the April 4 non-partisan primary, and the top two contenders will advance to the May 9 general. It’s very unlikely that anyone but Stothert and Mello will advance, and the general election cannot be averted if someone takes a majority in the primary. However, the primary might still end up being very important. If Stothert pulls off a strong performance in April, there’s a risk that donors, looking to back a winner, will contribute heavily to the mayor. However, if Mello spends too much money in the primary, he may not have enough for the final sprint. Stothert has already started a small ad buy, and it’s not clear how much Mello plans to spend before the general.

MI-Sen: The GOP field to face Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow is taking shape very slowly. Ex-state Senate Majority Leader Randy Richardville now says he’ll decide by the summer, though it’s unclear how interested state and national Republicans are in him. So far, two other Republicans have expressed interest in this seat: Rep. Fred Upton, and famous asshole Ted Nugent.

The Detroit Free Press says that some other names that are “popping up” are Rep. Justin Amash and ex-Rep. Mike Rogers, but it’s unclear if either man is remotely interested. The Paulist Amash is also a big Trump critic, so it’s very unlikely many D.C. Republicans actually want him to run. The article also name-drops Macomb Public Works Commissioner Candice Miller, but as one political consultant points out, it seems very unlikely that the former congresswoman would want to go back to Congress so soon after leaving it (though she hasn’t ruled out running for governor). Ex-Gov. John Engler’s name was also mentioned, but he quickly said no.

OH-Sen: Last year, GOP state Sen. Matt Huffman expressed some interest in challenging Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown. However, with 2012 nominee and Treasurer-In-Name-Only Josh Mandel already running and well-funded Rep. Pat Tiberi, an ally of Gov. John Kasich, considering, it didn’t look like Huffman had much space in the Republican primary, and he seems to have agreed. This week, Huffman said he wouldn’t run.

IA-01: A few days ago, state Rep. Abby Finkenauer expressed strong interest in challenging GOP Rep. Rod Blum in this eastern Iowa seat, and a few other local politicians are making noises about getting in. Bleeding Heartland has contacted a trio of Democrats who it previously mentioned as possible candidates, and none of the three are saying no.

Brent Oleson, the chair of the Board of Supervisors in Cedar Rapids’ Linn County, seems the most interested. Oleson, who switched from the GOP in 2015 and later served as a Bernie Sanders delegate at the Democratic National Convention, denounced Trump and Blum in a statement to Bleeding Heartland, though he says he hasn’t decided on anything. State Sen. Jeff Danielson, who has also been mentioned as a possible gubernatorial candidate, was asked about a possible bid against Blum and responded, “All options are on the table.” Danielson, who wouldn’t need to give up his seat to run next year, flirted with a bid in the 2014 cycle when this seat was open, but stayed put.

Steve Sodders lost his state Senate seat last year 53-47. Sodders, who also considered a 2014 bid, tells Bleeding Heartland that he’s “currently keeping all my options open on a possible run for public office,” and adds that he’ll be meeting with people in the next few weeks “to determine what I believe will suit my family and where I can be most effective for Iowans.” Engineer Courtney Rowe, an alternate Sanders delegate, is already in, but there’s no sign that she’ll have the support she’d need to win.

Whoever ends up with the Democratic nomination won’t have an easy time against Blum. The Republican once looked like one of the most vulnerable House members in the 2016 cycle, but he pulled off a 54-46 win as his seat swung from 56-43 Obama to 49-45 Trump. If there’s a state backlash against Trump in 2018, the very conservative congressman could be in trouble, but Team Blue won’t be underestimating Blum after last year.

AL-Gov: On Tuesday, CBS Sports reported that Tommy Tuberville, who served as head coach of the Auburn University football team from 1998 to 2008, was considering seeking the GOP nomination to replace termed-out and scandal-tarred Alabama Republican Gov. Robert Bentley. Tuberville hasn’t said anything publicly, and news that he's looking at a bid apparently caught the head of the state party by surprise. However, CBS’ Dennis Dodd says that Tuberville will decide in the next week or two, and that a statewide poll is currently in progress that could help him make up his mind.

A Tuberville candidacy would be pretty unusual for a few reasons. College football is a very serious deal in the Deep South, and the rivalry between Auburn and the University of Alabama is no small thing. It’s generally accepted that Alabama fans far outnumber Auburn fans in the state. A 2012 Public Policy Poll of GOP presidential primary voters found that respondents backed the Crimson Tide over the Auburn Tigers 58-28; a 2014 analysis from the New York Times also found Auburn fans clustered around the town in the western eastern part of the state, while Alabama dominated everywhere else. 

Alabama supporters likely haven’t forgiven Tuberville for beating them for six years in a row, and if they still hold it against him, he could have a tough time advancing. The state requires candidates to win a majority of the vote in the primary to avoid a runoff, so Tuberville couldn’t just rally Auburn fans to a plurality victory. The state hasn’t been completely unwilling to elect Auburn football alumni; Fob James, who was a Tigers’ star halfback in the 1950s, was elected governor in 1978 as a Democrat and in 1994 as a Republican. However, Tuberville famously enjoyed trolling Crimson Tide fans when he beat their team, so his crossover appeal may be much more limited.

Tuberville also hasn’t been a Yellowhammer State resident in a long time. Tuberville was born and raised in Arkansas, and since his Auburn gig ended in 2008, he’s coached at Texas Tech and Cincinnati; Tuberville only resigned as head coach at Cincinnati in December of last year. Tigers’ fans may not care, but voters who see his Auburn past as a negative won’t be so easy to persuade.

Next year’s GOP primary will likely be dominated by outgoing Gov. Bentley’s sex scandal. Bentley is currently under investigation for allegedly using state resources to cover up an affair with a staffer, though it’s far from clear if the GOP-dominated legislature will end up suspending him from office, removing him altogether, or doing nothing. No one has entered the race yet, though plenty of Republicans are looking at this contest. Democrats are hoping that Bentley’s problems will give them an opening, but it won’t be easy to win in one of the most conservative states in the nation. However, it still may be easier to imagine a Democratic governor of Alabama than an Auburn governor of Alabama.

GA-06: Clout Research, the pollster formally known as Wenzel Strategies, takes a look at the April all-party special election primary for the blog Zpolitics. They give Democrat Jon Ossoff 32 percent of the vote, with ex-Secretary of State Karen Handel leading fellow Republican and wealthy businessman Bob Gray 25-11 for the second place spot. If no one takes a majority, which is all but certain in this huge field, the top two candidates will advance to the June runoff.

There are a few things to note about this poll. Wenzel was one of the worst polling firms in the business, and Clout has also displayed some very strange habits. This particular poll also one other thing worth noting. Ossoff was the one Democrat tested, while four other minor Democrats did file. Ossoff will almost certainly do better than any of them, but there’s still a chance that the others will take enough votes to cost him a spot in the general election.

Understandably, Clout did not test all 11 Republicans. One of the candidates they left off, certified public accountant David Abroms, says he’ll spend $250,000 of his own money on his campaign. However, Abroms is running as a Trump skeptic, which probably isn’t the path to electoral success in today’s GOP.

St. Louis, MO Mayor: The Democratic primary to succeed St. Louis Mayor Francis Slay is March 7, and the winner should have no trouble in the April general election in this very blue city. The only pollster we’ve seen numbers from is the GOP group Remington Research, and their Feb. 14-15 survey for the Missouri Times gives Alderwoman Lyda Krewson a clear lead. Krewson outpaces City Treasurer Tishaura Jones 34-16, with President of the Board of Aldermen Lewis Reed at 13 and Alderman Antonio French at 12.

Krewson, who has Slay’s support, is the only serious white contender. Elections in St. Louis tend to be racially polarizing, so Krewson could benefit from facing three credible African-Americans in a contest where there is no runoff. Indeed, Remington finds that Krewson leads Jones 54-11 among white voters, while Reed edges Jones 22-20 among African-Americans, with French at 18. But as we always say, you should never let one pollster determine your view of a contest, and we’ll know where things stand soon.

In any case, plenty of local power players are siding with other candidates besides Krewson. Rep. Lacy Clay, who represents the entire city in the House, endorsed Reed on Tuesday; in 2013, Clay sided with Slay over Reed. The state SEIU also backed Jones on Tuesday. Jones previously won an endorsement from ex-Secretary of State and 2016 Senate nominee Jason Kander.