In markets its often referred to a black swan events that create significant market turns. The 911 tragedy was a black swan event but the GFC was not a black swan event. The difference? the first was something never factored in and completely surprised the markets. Which brings us to events over the weekend. What will the market make of the latest controversy involving Donald Trump and Russia?
Black swan events and strong reporting
1. Trump watch: A new FBI investigation was announced into Trump's relationship with the Russians, this along with several committees in progress within Congress and the Senate, some of which are already investigating alleged Russian cyber-attacks and interference in the US election. There is also a Senate Intelligence Committee that has the most cohesive and robust of an investigation going so far. Traders may be keeping in mind the event that launched the current rally may end with an inverse event. If there a connection between Trump and the Russians is proved, there is no upside for the markets.
More BusinessDay Videos
The busiest week for the ASX 200 earnings season
Over 75 companies will report as the cyclical side of the market opens its books. The big names to watch include BHP, FMG, Woodside, Woolworth, QANTAS and many, many more.
2. ASX: A quiet but positive start expected for Monday with the SPI futures up 5 points. ADR's are mixed with BHP at $26.24 and reporting tomorrow, market will be looking for NPAT of $2.883 B FMG's ADR shows $6.91.
Qingdao Iron ore futures remain strong last traded $90.37 up 34 cents. With commodities and the financials moving forward a positive start is expected with the Index expected to hold 5800 points, a continuing bullish reporting season, may see the 6000 level met in the ASX200 Index.
3. Reporting season: BlueScope steel are reporting today, absolutely the turnaround story of 2016. With a starting price in January 2016 of $4.46 and last traded at $12.19. Expect a NPAT of $367.6 M, of interest will the results from sales numbers in the Asia region. Mining services company Worley Parsons looking for a NPAT of $41.8M after a tough 2016 this sector has potentially the most upside in 2017 following years of cost cutting and rationalisation, now with rising commodities prices, forward comments for 2017 will be the driving factor behind the share price.
![A new FBI investigation into Trump's relationship with the Russians was announced over the weekend.](/web/20170221213345im_/http://www.smh.com.au/content/dam/images/g/u/f/4/d/e/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gugig1.png/1487551774931.jpg)
4. Financials looking bright:Â The CBA ADR suggests a move to $85.84 from last close of $83.39. Following last weeks move in the financials with across the board rises of 3% and better, this week also looks positive in the sector.
5. France: Spread in the German French 10 year bonds has again widened to 0.7363% with Le Pen continuing t increase her lead in the 1st round of voting in the French election with 26% of the vote.
6. Eyes on gold: Gold trading at the $1235.22 close on Friday is mid way between the June 2016 high and the December 2016 low, poised to trade over this level or find rejection the Gold plays will be looking for direction this week. Traders will again be looking at Gold as the safe haven against any uncertainty with in the Euro region
7. China: Also this week the coal market will be looking at the Chinese decision to lower the number of production days to 266 down from 336. China has also halted the importation of coal from Nth Korea. Whitehaven coal has increased it revenue 43% in the 4th quarter report. The type of coal Whitehaven produces at $56 a ton is preferred by Asian buyers as its produces less carbon. Â Â
8. Market watch:
SPI futures up 5 points or 0.1% to 5760
AUD -0.4% to 76.67 US cents
On Wall St, Dow flat, S&P; 500 +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.4%
In New York, BHP -1.7%;Â Rio -1.4%
US markets are closed on Monday for Presidents Day
In Europe, Stoxx 50 -0.1%, FTSE +0.3%, CAC-0.7%, DAX flat
Spot gold -0.3% to $US1235.44 an ounce
Brent crude +0.2% to $US55.77 a barrel
Iron ore + 0.3%Â to $US90.37 a tonne
LME aluminium -0.9% to $US1880 a tonne
LME copper -0.7% to $US5960 a tonne
10-year bond yield: US 2.42%; Germany 0.30%, Australia 2.80%
 This column was produced in commercial partnership
  between Fairfax Media and IG