Cause of by-election
Mike Baird stepped down as premier of New South Wales in January 2017 and resigned from his seat of Manly shortly afterwards.
Margin – LIB 24.5% vs GRN
Geography
Northern Sydney. Manly covers the suburbs of Manly, Balgowlah, Seaforth, Queenscliff, Curl Curl and parts of Brookvale. The entire seat is contained in the new Northern Beaches council, but previously covered the entire Manly council area and the southern end of the Warringah council area.
History
The seat of Manly has existed since the 1927 election. It has been dominated by the Liberal Party for most of that period. The ALP held the seat for six years in the 1970s and 1980s, and independent MPs held Manly from 1991 to 2007.
The seat was first won in 1927 by Alfred Reid of the United Australia Party, he held the seat until 1945, joining the Liberal Party shortly before his death in 1945.
The 1945 Manly by-election was won by Liberal candidate Douglas Darby. He was at the right-wing end of the Liberal Party, and sat as an independent Liberal from 1962 to 1968. He held the seat as a Liberal from 1968 to 1978, when he retired.
The 1978 election was a landslide for the Labor Party, and Manly was won by the ALP’s Alan Stewart. He was re-elected in 1981, but lost in 1984 to Liberal candidate David Hay.
Hay was re-elected in 1988, and became a minister in the Greiner Coalition government.
In 1991, Hay was challenged by independent Manly councillor Peter Macdonald, who won the seat.
Macdonald was re-elected in 1995, and stepped down in 1999. He was succeeded by David Barr, another independent who had been elected to Manly Council on Macdonald’s independent ticket. Macdonald later won election as Mayor of Manly in 2004, serving one term until he was defeated in 2008.
Barr served two terms as the independent Member for Manly. In 2007, he was defeated by Liberal candidate Mike Baird.
The son of former state minister and federal MP Bruce Baird, Baird won a fierce preselection against Michael Darby, son of former Manly MP Douglas Darby.
Baird was promoted to serve as Shadow Treasurer in 2008, and became Treasurer when the Coalition won power in 2011.
When Barry O’Farrell resigned as Premier in April 2014, Baird was elected Liberal leader and Premier.
Mike Baird led the government to a second election victory at the 2015 state election. Baird resigned as premier and from parliament in January 2017.
Candidates
No information.
Assessment
Manly is a very safe Liberal seat, and is likely to stay that way. The Greens have come second at the last two elections, but they are a very long way away from threatening the Liberal Party. There is a history of independent MPs holding Manly, and a strong independent could be a threat, but that person has not yet emerged.
2015 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Mike Baird | Liberal | 32,160 | 68.0 | -2.2 |
| Clara Williams Roldan | Greens | 8,103 | 17.1 | -0.7 |
| Jennifer Jary | Labor | 6,098 | 12.9 | +2.5 |
| Rod Jamieson | No Land Tax | 517 | 1.1 | +1.1 |
| Annie Wright | Christian Democratic Party | 420 | 0.9 | -0.8 |
| Informal | 1,031 | 2.1 |
2015 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Mike Baird | Liberal | 32,848 | 74.5 | -2.5 |
| Clara Williams Roldan | Greens | 11,233 | 25.5 | +2.5 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Mike Baird | Liberal | 33,426 | 78.4 | +1.4 |
| Jennifer Jary | Labor | 9,209 | 21.6 | -1.4 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Manly have been split into three parts: north, south-east and south-west.
The Liberal vote peaked at 72.6% in the south-west, with the vote just below 66% int he other two areas.
The Greens came second in all three areas, with a vote ranging from 15.5% in the south-west to 20% in the south-east.
The Labor vote ranged from 10% in the south-west to 14.6% in the north.
| Voter group | ALP % | GRN % | LIB % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 14.6 | 17.0 | 65.9 | 14,705 | 31.1 |
| South-West | 10.3 | 15.5 | 72.6 | 12,175 | 25.7 |
| South-East | 12.8 | 20.2 | 65.8 | 6,084 | 12.9 |
| Pre-poll | 15.4 | 14.4 | 68.2 | 3,969 | 8.4 |
| Other votes | 12.6 | 18.5 | 66.8 | 10,365 | 21.9 |
Election results in Manly at the 2015 NSW state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between primary votes for the Liberal Party, the Greens and Labor.
Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.
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Probably the best chance the Greens will ever get. They actually won a booth at the 2016 federal election (Manly Central) and the better Warringah booths are all in this state electorate.
Not sure if the Greens have what it takes to pull off an Orange level swing in either this seat or North Shore, especially since they won’t be able to get support from the likes of Alan Jones and Ray Hadley. Still, nothing would cause a greater shock than the Liberals than losing one of their safest seats to the Greens, and voters just might be able to get behind that.
I don’t think the Greens have any of the same prospects as the Shooters did in Orange. Orange was a right-wing seat and a lot of those right-wing voters switched to another right-wing party in the Shooters. The equivalent in Manly would be someone like the CDP winning.
I suspect we’ll need David Barr to be lured out of retirement for this to be even a chance of a contest. Barbara Aird may run, but she’ll need a shocking Lib preselection (always a chance) to be in with a shot.
James Matheson perhaps?
Good point Ben.
Also the big motivating issue in Orange was the Greyhound ban, which the Greens actually support.
Something like local government mergers may be able to motivate a “vote for everyone and put Liberals last” campaign across party lines (Fred Nile and David Shoebridge just had a joint press conference on the issue). Still, even with a strong candidate it will be hard for many voters to stomach putting Greens above Liberals, and OPV makes it even harder.
The Libs should win here, no independents have popped up, but I suppose there is still time.
As for the Greens, I doubt they could win, that being said if Labor don’t run which is quite likely they should have a strong result.
when is the bielection?
The Greens will do well if no Labor candidate runs. If Labor runs then there should be a swing in there favour. I recon it will be a close election if Labor runs. Labor will benefit from any campaigning the Unions, Anti-council merger campaigners & Getup do.
When is the by election in Manly and North shore?
The Greens have already preselected a candidate, in which came second here in the last election and in Warringah in the Federal election. I doubt that would make a huge difference to the result in the end.
Also the sitting MP for the seat of Gosford has just resigned due to ill health. Labor only holds it by 203 votes and could become quite interesting.
There have been no dates set yet. There will also be a third by-election in Gosford. Labor’s Kathy Smith has resigned after being diagnosed with cancer.
Thank you David and best of health to Kathy Smith
I am surprised no dates have been set yet. I’d have thought the government would want this and North Shore out of the way as quickly as possible, to prevent any Independent getting some momentum going….
Jillian Skinner reportedly has not formally resigned. But nor has she turned up to parliament this week. We know her exit from the ministry was acrimonious but this is really odd behaviour.
It’s hard to know whats going on here and in North Shore especially. When you have three vacancies, two being definite it’s logistically easier for them to be on the same day. That being said if Skinner were to hold out to the state election that would seemingly nullify the threat of an independent winning due to the fact people vote for a government rather than an independent at elections, although that would give an independent time to amass a following and name recognition, quite frankly this is becoming a lose lose situation for the government and is going to hurt them either way.
Fair enough, I didn’t realise the confusion with Skinner’s “resignation”.
The Greens are kidding themselves if they think they can win this seat without going through a complete left renewal