The Weather Man

BoM: Press release... Tropical Low in the Gulf forecast to intensify over the weekend

Tropical Low in the Gulf forecast to intensify over the weekend

Issued: Friday, 17 February 2017

There is an increasing chance the tropical low in the Gulf of Carpentaria will develop into a tropical cyclone on Sunday morning.   The low is currently over land, and expected to move back over water and strengthen on Saturday.   Severe weather warnings are in place for coastal areas, which are expected to be impacted by damaging winds, with peak gusts to 100 kilometres per hour and heavy rainfall which may lead to flash flooding.   Abnormally high tides are expected about the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast today and over the weekend, but at this stage the sea level is not forecast to exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves are likely along the beachfront.   Flood Watches have been issued for the Queensland Gulf Rivers and Northern Territory Carpentaria Coastal Rivers. Although river levels are easing in the Carpentaria Coastal Rivers, many catchments are saturated from monsoonal conditions during the past two weeks and would respond to further rainfall.   Road conditions have been affected in many areas and some roads remain impassable. Some communities may remain isolated until conditions improve.   For warnings and the latest tropical cyclone forecast track maps see www.bom.gov.au/warnings   For further information www.bom.gov.au/cyclone   Follow us on Twitter BOM_Qld and BOM_NT and watch the latest Severe Weather Update on YouTube.   The Bureau’s Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres in Brisbane and Darwin operates 24 hours a day, 7 days a week with forecasters monitoring the situation and providing the latest information for emergency services, media and the community.   The public are urged to closely monitor the Bureau’s website for the latest information through local media and follow the advice of local emergency services.

BoM update on the events behind SA severe weather yesterday.

Matt Collopy is Supervising Meteorologist for South Australia at the Bureau of Meteorology "Tropical air mass over SA saw thunderstorms developing over Eyre Peninsula moving over Adelaide in the evening.   As the system moved across, this produced large thunderstorms, damaging wind gusts, heavy rain and high rainfall rates in isolated areas.   This resulted in some locations reporting their wettest January day on record, and month-to-date totals have already resulted in some locations having their wettest January in more than 20 years.   Already, most locations across agricultural South Australia have reported more than twice the long term January average rainfall.   Rainfall: Maynard's Well 70.4mm Leigh Creek 61.2mm Auburn 51mm Little Para Reservoir 49mm Edinburgh 44.8mm (notably at Edinburgh 24mm fell in 25 minutes in the evening yesterday) Wilpena 106 mm Buckleboo 76 mm   Wind Gusts: Adelaide Airport 111km/h @ 20:27 Warburto Point 111km/h @ 19:12 Wudinna 106/km/h Minlaton 100km/h @16:30   70.4 mm at Maynards Well to 9am this morning and 61.2 mm at Leigh Creek are both highest daily rainfall totals at these sites since March 2012.   51.4 mm at Blinman is highest daily rainfall since Jan 2015. At Auburn also with 51.4 mm, was highest since Feb 2014.   Edinburgh with 44.8 mm had 70mm in late Dec 2016. 27mm of this in 1 hour is about a 1 in 15 year ARI (average recurrence interval) for that location.   Port Augusta recorded 10.6 mm in 9 minutes, which has an ARI of ~1 in 5 year." Courtesy of ausSMC

National: We should be moving into a wetter pattern

Rainfall - The chance of above median for May to July

The Bureau of Meteorology issued the latest 3 month Climate Outlook today and it suggests a definite shift from the recent dry conditions to more regular and potentially widespread above median falls across most of the non tropical areas with June and July looking to be the more active months as opposed to May where decent falls look to be patchier.

The pattern of rainfall would suggest an active period of North West Cloud Bands which sees the jet stream feed tropical moisture from thunderstorms near Indonesia into troughs and fronts crossing the south of the continent and feeding widespread rain bands. These systems are quite complex and need several aspects of development to occur in set order but it will be well worth watching for the tell tale cloud bands spreading from the north west to the eastern states in the coming months.

There are some exceptions including which include Tasmania, southern Victoria and the south west of Western Australia with these areas less likely to record above the median rainfall.

Temperatures will be impacted by any rain and cloud with maximums expected to be closer to normal in the wetter areas but above median minimum temperatures in all areas with the cloud and moisture levels reducing the potential for much colder nights and warmer days elsewhere also providing a warmer potential away from the cloud and rain.

To see the full details and maps go to the BoM climate outlooks here. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/rainfall/median/seasonal/0

Warmest March in the Global record and now is April the new March?

Every State and Territory is experiencing widespread areas of above average maximum and minimum temperatures so far this April and the current forecast models looking out to the end of the month are offering no expectation of a significant cold outbreak developing until perhaps the last 2 days of the month.

Every recording site in Queensland, Northern Territory and New South Wales are currently recording above average maximum temperatures. Apart from Casterton in Victoria all other sites are warmer than average. In Tasmania the only stations with a cooler than normal maximum average so far this month are Butlers Gorge, Mt Hartz, Mt Reid and Warra. South Australia and Western Australia have a broader mix with above average temperatures not as high as in the other states but even in South Australia only 8 stations are at or below average. Minimums are following very similar trends with the majority of sites much warmer than usual.

These warmer conditions are in part due to well above average water temperatures surrounding the continent, a lack of strong cold fronts drawing cold air across the nation and the persistent heating of northern Australia after a very poor wet season and not to mention the impact of human induced climate change.

For more on the Global Records read here 

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/warmest-march-in-global-recordkeeping-2016-roars-ahead-of-pack

 

 

 

Category 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone Winston could intensify further next 24 hours.

The latest information form the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre suggests that TC Winston will remain in a region with conditions favorable for further intensification over the next 24 hours. Even if the current cat 4 strength is maintained any significant weakening is not expected for around 72 hours when the Cyclone takes a more southerly turn as a high pressure ridge maintaining its current movement breaks down. This turn will move the Cyclone over more unfavorable sea surface temperatures and atmospheric wind shear. There is good consensus in the forecast model guidance. http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1116web.txt

There are widespread wind, rain and sea state warnings across the Fiji Islands with a tropical cyclone alert in force for the Lomaiviti group, Kadavu, eastern half of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu, Taveuni and nearby smaller islands.

Current condition at Lupepau'u Airport on Vava'u (Northern Tonga) are still gale force winds with gusts around 100 to 110km/h

Category 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone Winston could intensify further next 24 hours.

The latest information form the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre suggests that TC Winston will remain in a region with conditions favorable for further intensification over the next 24 hours. Even if the current cat 4 strength is maintained any significant weakening is not expected for around 72 hours when the Cyclone takes a more southerly turn as a high pressure ridge maintaining its current movement breaks down. This turn will move the Cyclone over more unfavorable sea surface temperatures and atmospheric wind shear. There is good consensus in the forecast model guidance. http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1116web.txt

There are widespread wind, rain and sea state warnings across the Fiji Islands with a tropical cyclone alert in force for the Lomaiviti group, Kadavu, eastern half of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu, Taveuni and nearby smaller islands.

Current condition at Lupepau'u Airport on Vava'u (Northern Tonga) are still gale force winds with gusts around 100 to 110km/h

National: Call out for your weather questions

 

I am hosting a 2 hour Radio program just after Australia all over Sun 10th Jan. It will be all Weather and I will be taking calls. Would love to get some advance questions though so send them in especially if you in the Central or western states as the program is live and will be over by the time it airs in WA. If you get your question in in advance we will do as many as possible so you will still get the answer.

National: Wet start to November for parts of the country.

October was a month of record heat and record dry for large areas of the continent but the last few days of that month saw some decent rain falling which has continued into November with widespread areas of the country currently recording average monthly rainfall and some pockets of well above average falls.

 

There is more rainfall on the way in the coming week but the heavier falls will be mostly confined to the far south east of the mainland with the higher totals quite patchy and mostly expected with isolated thunderstorms. The heavy falls in eastern WA are expected to be patchy and associated with afternoon thunderstorms on Monday tending lighter and more isolated as the week progresses and generally clearing to the Kimberley by Wednesday. Similarly with SE Queensland the better of the falls already look to have started to clear as an upper low moves away from the coast. 

 

Heatwave conditions are expected to continue tomorrow about the Arnhem District of the Northern Territory however they will begin to ease back to more seasonal temperatures from Wednesday/Thursday. See the heatwave forecast here. BoM heatwave forecast

BoM NSW : Storm season underway, with more thunderstorms likely for NSW

Storm season underway, with more thunderstorms likely for NSW

 

04/11/2015

 

The Bureau of Meteorology is warning of thunderstorms for large areas of New South Wales, with severe thunderstorms possible, as a deep low pressure trough moves through the state.

 

Bureau of Meteorology Acting New South Wales Regional Director, Mr Stephen Lellyett, said there was a high likelihood of severe thunderstorms in far western NSW today (Wednesday), and western slopes and plains tomorrow (Thursday) with storms also possible in surrounding areas.

 

“The main impacts are likely to be damaging wind gusts, large hail and localised heavy rainfall. We’re closely monitoring the system and will issue warnings as the situation develops,” said Mr Lellyett.

 

“Storm season is already well underway, and storms have been quite widespread over the past week in New South Wales, with more storm activity was expected over the coming days and months.

 

“The majority of storms in NSW occur between November and March, and despite strong El Niño conditions, this year will be no exception for severe thunderstorms affecting the state,” he said.

 

NSW SES Commission Adam Dent reminded communities to be prepared.

 

“This spring has already seen severe storms cause damage in a number of communities across the state. With timely and appropriate preparation, some of this damage could have been prevented. As severe storms are likely in many parts of the state tomorrow, it is important people prepare their homes and businesses now to minimise damage and keep themselves, and their families, safer.

 

“Cleaning gutters and downpipes, securing or putting away loose items, checking your roof is in good repair and keeping out of flash floodwater are simple measures that can make a big difference when storms strike,” said Mr Dent.

 

The public are urged to closely monitor the Bureau’s website, tune into the media and local radio, and listen to the advice of emergency services. For storm and flood assistance, contact the NSW SES on 132 500, and for life threatening situations, call Triple Zero (000).

 

See the Bureau's website for the latest warnings: www.bom.gov.au/warnings

 

The Bureau is now using Twitter to disseminate significant weather information for the community. Follow @BOM_NSW. The Bureau's website remains the most up-to-date and comprehensive official source of information.

National: Severe thunderstorm threat.

Severe thunderstorms have been active today and are expected to be potentially widespread tomorrow across the eastern states and into the Northern Territory as troughs and upper level disturbances combine to trigger thunderstorms with the potential for damaging winds, heavy rainfall and large hail. The potential mostly contracts to Queensland on Friday and then develops along an inland trough through western Australia across the weekend.

From Friday the potential for widespread rainfall from thunderstorms and showers tends to ease back to more isolated showers and thunderstorms rather than the widespread activity of the last couple of days and tomorrow. As a result rainfall will become patchier. Tuesday could see another broad are of instability develop but at this stage falls will be patchier and generally light.