Arctic, Antarctic Ice in Free Fall
November 20, 2016
Bob Henson in Weather Underground:
There are weather and climate records, and then there are truly exceptional events that leave all others in the dust. Such has been the case across Earth’s high latitudes during this last quarter of 2016, on track to be the planet’s warmest year on record. Sea ice extent and area have both plummeted to record lows for this time of year in both the Arctic and Antarctic. Such dramatic losses rarely occur at the same time, which means that the global total of sea ice coverage is phenomenally low for this time of year. The weirdness extends to midlatitudes: North America as well as the Arctic have been bathed in unusual mildness over the last several weeks, while Eurasia deals with a vast zone of above-average snowfall and below-average temperatures. Let’s look at each of these to see what’s up and where they may (or may not) be related.
Figure 1. Global sea ice area, including both Arctic and Antarctic. Sea ice extent is typically larger than sea ice area because it includes all data cells with at least 15 percent ice coverage (see NSIDC definitions). Global sea ice extent is experiencing a similar departure from average as global sea ice area. Experts usually analyze Arctic and Antarctic sea ice separately rather than together (see discussion below). Image credit: Wipneus, using data from National Snow and Ice Data Center. (NSIDC was not involved in producing this image.)
Figure 2. The normalized value of global sea ice area as of November 17, 2016, was so far from any other total in the 37-year record that it represented a departure of about 8 standard deviations below the average! Image credit: Wipneus, using data from National Snow and Ice Data Center. (NSIDC was not involved in producing this image.)
Figure 3. Departures from the 1981-2010 average for sea ice extent, in millions of square kilometers, across the Arctic (blue) and Antarctic (green) in the year 2016 through November 17. The departures from average were almost equally large by mid-November, leading to a total global sea ice extent of more than 4.2 million sq km below average. Image credit: Zachary Labe, based on data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center. (NSIDC was not involved in producing this image.)
Round-the-clock darkness usually forces a rapid growth in sea ice across the Arctic by November, but that process has been much slower than normal over the past month or so. There is now far less mid-November sea ice in the Arctic than in any other year since satellite records began in 1979. For the five-day average ending November 17, the difference in Arctic sea ice extent between this year and the next-lowest year (2012) was 582,000 square kilometers, an area about a third larger than California. It’s an especially dramatic example of the long-term decline in sea ice across the Arctic that’s been evident for upwards of 20 years.
A few years ago, a key Climate denial talking point centered around a short-lived high anomaly in Antarctic sea ice. That’s going away now, but here’s the video I made explaining it in the words of major league experts.
Henson again:
Experts agree that the laggard sea ice this month around Antarctica is a separate matter from the Arctic, because sea ice in the northern and southern polar regions is produced by two markedly different circulation regimes and geographies. “At NSIDC, we generally frown on the practice of looking at the global sea ice extent,” said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, “the reason being that ice in the two hemispheres tends to behave rather differently; while Arctic extent shows clear downward trends in all months, the pattern for the Antarctic has been much more complex.” Serreze and several other ice experts I contacted agreed that there was no obvious explanation for why sea ice extent would suddenly dip in unison in both the Arctic and Antarctic when the two processes are typically so uncorrelated. Previous record-warm years didn’t behave this way. Could some previously dormant or absent connection be popping up just now? If so, it’s not an obvious one. NSIDC’s Ted Scambos: “I’d say that to link the two poles with a single causality chain at the seasonal/annual level is probably about a decade of research in the future.”
Unlike the Arctic, sea ice extent around Antarctica has actually shown a slight increasing trend over the last couple of decades. This might seem odd in a global climate that’s warming, but there are several plausible explanations, as we discussed in an October 26 post. Just two years ago, in September 2014, Antarctic sea ice extent hit the highest values observed at any time of the year since monitoring began in 1979. We’re now seeing the lowest values on record for mid-November, and the margin between this year and all other years has been increasing. For the five-day average ending November 17, the difference in Antarctic sea ice extent between this year and the next-lowest year (1986) was an enormous 1.12 million square kilometers.
An Arctic that’s having trouble cooling down
Temperatures north of 80°N smashed records for warmth throughout the winter of 2015-16. Now they’re on an even more torrid pace. In mid-November, temperatures across the high Arctic spiked to readings more typical of September, about 40°F above average for this time of year (see Figure 3 in our November 17 post). “Continued persistence of this pattern may significantly affect sea ice thickness into 2017,” tweeted Zach Labe (@Zlabe, University of California, Irvine) on Monday.It’s difficult to measure sea ice thickness and volume in a continuous way, but the University of Washington’s PIOMAS model, which estimates sea ice volume using the available data, dove into record-low territory this month, just weeks after a rapid refreeze took place early in the autumn. “Whatever the respective roles of natural variability and [anthropogenic global warming], these wild swings do not inspire confidence in a semi-stable system,” noted Neven Acropolis in an early-November update on the Arctic Sea Ice Blog.
Figure 4. The huge contrasts between a far-warmer-than-average Arctic and a much-colder-than-average North Asia are projected to continue for the period November 18 – 22, 2016, as forecast by the GFS model on Thursday, November 17. Shown are anomalies (departures from average) in degrees Fahrenheit (top of legend) and Celsius (bottom of legend). Image credit: ClimateReanalyzer.com, University of Maine.
November 20, 2016 at 9:16 am
8 sigmas? That’s something that should never happen. If you want “proof” that conditions now are not normal, this is conclusive.
November 20, 2016 at 9:28 am
Yep, I saw that too, and after the warm up looking at the disturbing red line on the preceding global sea ice extent graph, it was a real shocker. I said to myself EIGHT? WTF? JFC! (and decided to take my anger out on Trump, even though the damage has already been done—-he will likely add to it).
November 20, 2016 at 9:20 am
As I’ve said before, I am a big fan of the graphic display of data, and this is a truly excellent compilation of visual displays. The canary in the coal mine is groggy and teetering on its perch. The big question is whether it will fall off and trigger the positive feedback loops that will mean the end of times for much of life on the planet.
If that does happen over the next two or three years, it’s fitting that it will occur during the reign of President Pussy Grabber. Yep, abrogate the Paris Accords, gut the EPA, kill the Clean Power Plan, gut the Clean Air and Clean Water Acts, kill NASA’s earth monitoring programs, mine and burn more coal—-Oh, and cut taxes on the rich so that they can afford seats on Musk’s “Escape to Mars” cruise ships.
November 20, 2016 at 9:26 am
It seems 8 sigmas is on the order of 10^-15.
November 20, 2016 at 11:59 am
100 Earths all with the same stationary climate system over a period of time equal to the age of the universe, only one of them will have the 8-sigma. Yep! Pretty much never.
November 20, 2016 at 9:30 am
If escape to Mars is the plan, they’re going to be awfully disappointed (like so many Trump customers). It’s hard to imagine a trust-fund billionaire enjoying the hard-scrabble of breaking prairie sod, let alone the ‘soil’ of a hostile planet.
November 20, 2016 at 9:38 am
LOL They can sue for a refund when they find out they’ve been duped, and in the Trump University model, they will get back 50 cents on the dollar (and Musk will be able to write off the settlement on his taxes so that all of us help pay it).
Ain’t it a great country? (For rich old men).
November 20, 2016 at 12:26 pm
I know that was meant in humor, but at least with respect to Trump, it looks like the tax maneuver that he played with his casino bankruptcies during the early 1990s where investors bore the cost but Trump got the write-off was eliminated back in 2002.
Please see:
Here’s the best theory we’ve seen of how Trump paid so little tax
Josh Barro, Oct. 5, 2016
http://www.businessinsider.com/why-did-trump-pay-so-little-tax-2016-10
Interestingly, the tax cuts that Trump has been considering are supposed to benefit real estate and thus himself. Not sure if he intends to bring that tax break back, though.
November 20, 2016 at 1:04 pm
It was meant more in the nature of sarcasm and irony—-what Trump and the other greedy rich do is certainly not funny to the 99%. Yes, it does appear that the loophole Trump used for his casino bankruptcies has been closed, but unless I’m mistaken, this so-called “settlement” with the Trump U plaintiffs CAN be written off as a plain business expense against profits, and therefore we will all indirectly help pay it off. In round numbers, $25 million works out to 25-30 cents for each of the ~90 million filers that owe tax.
November 20, 2016 at 2:50 pm
Have you ever bothered to read Trumps side of the case or do you simply get in a social media circle of like minded folks and tells lies back and forth to yourselfs so many times it becomes truth?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/06/07/donald-trumps-complete-statement-on-the-trump-university-case/
Why not read his side of the case. He settled for the same reason insurance companies when they think fraud has been committed, It is simply cheaper to pay than win. Trump has a country to run, not a court case to be involved with for years. Since fraud has no down side in the courts, anybody can sue for anything and gamble the other side will settle to end the pain and costs. That is what ambulance attorneys do all the time and you know it.
November 20, 2016 at 4:45 pm
I don’t do social media, Tommy-Poo. Don’t facebook, don’t twitter, don’t instagram, or any other of those self-indulgent time-wasting things. That’s for right wing-nut jerk-offs like you who do in fact “run around in a circle of like minded folks and tell lies back and forth to yourselfs (sic) so many times it becomes truth”.
Thanks for the link to the WashPost article. I read it this AM with breakfast—the WashPost is my daily paper, and I doubt you’ve ever held a copy in your hands (and you couldn’t read and understand it if you ever got one—they use big words). You have once again simply googled to find some TITLE of a piece that you THINK means something and will support your ignorant and deluded bullshit. Same thing with your so-called “science”, which you just google and cherry pick off denier sites and parrot without understanding.
There is no “side” to the pussy grabber’s case beyond the fact that he took the easy way out and (again) screwed some people as he left the scene. He did not settle because it is “cheaper to pay than win”, but because it is cheaper to pay than LOSE. Which he surely would have done, and you would know that if you read the WashPost every day as I do—-Trump University offered NOTHING in return for the $$$ people paid, and was a SCAM of the first order. Trump’s recorded testimony is a huge embarrassment to him, and he does not want a replay.
“Trump has a country to run, not a court case to be involved with for years” is your usual TOTAL BULLSHIT. The case would probably have come to trial and been over by inauguration day, and his lawyers would have one all the work—-at most, he would have had to testify for an hour or so. Trump settled and is now spouting fine-sounding “presidential” BS in an attempt to look good and avoid even bigger monetary damage—-he knows that he would have been liable for even more restitution $$$$ if a jury had heard it, and perhaps even for punitive damages as well. If you weren’t such a stupid and ignorant POS, you’d not have wasted this comment showing us how really ignorant and stupid you are.
Now that I’ve wasted time on Bates, I’m going to take up some more space and begin what I hope will be a movement here on Crock—-that’s begin a little “chant”—–BTB=TUPOS! (Ban Tom Bates–That Useless Piece Of S**T) And I’m going to append it to any comment I make to Bates and hope others will take it up also—-I’m repeating it the 20 times (at least) that Bates has failed to answer one Crocker’s attack on his “science”
BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS!
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BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS!
BTB-TUPOS!
Please!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
November 20, 2016 at 9:57 am
Given the actual success rate of Mars landing attempts to date, there’s a very good chance that those trust-fund billionaires will get what’s coming to them.
November 20, 2016 at 12:07 pm
I don’t think that rapid unscheduled disassembly is an appropriate punishment for some of these crimes.
November 20, 2016 at 2:53 pm
Man needs to go to the stars or more likely the planets. You seem to wish failure on the human race as you have some misplace hatred of successful people. Why not stop whining and make something of yourself instead.
November 20, 2016 at 4:48 pm
“Man NEEDS to go to the stars or more likely the planets”? Really?
Peter needs to ban Tom Bates from Crock.
BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS!
BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS!
BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS!
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BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS!
BTB-TUPOS!
Please!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
November 20, 2016 at 12:06 pm
Aren’t we lucky that the Trump administration is going to put an end to this global warming Chinese conspiracy? I’m sure all of these numbers will return to normal as soon as Myron Ebell runs the EPA. That’s how science works, right?
November 20, 2016 at 2:55 pm
Per Berkely the actual CO2 measured warming was 0.034F. Another study showed the increased CO2 increased plant mass by 8 percent which is 8 percent more food or 415 million people alive instead of dead from starvation.
November 20, 2016 at 4:54 pm
“…increased CO2 increased plant mass by 8 percent…”? Really? Which plants are those, moron? Do people eat trees or grass? And does that balance the decrease in food crop plant mass due to increased temperatures, the decreased nutrient value of crops from same, and the fact that in many places people are unable to grow any plants at all because of the drought-induced water shortage. Syria or parts of SO CAL, anyone?
BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS!
BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS!
BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS!
BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS!
BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS!
BTB-TUPOS!
Please!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
November 20, 2016 at 12:52 pm
Myron Ebell (chief climate denier who heads at the Competitive Enterprise Institute (as Director of Global Warming and International Environmental Policy) for the EPA, white nationalist Steve Bannon as chief strategist at the White House, General Michael Flynn (an Islamophobe who supports extreme torture in violation of international law) as national security advisor, Jeff Sessions (who engaged in voter suppression back in the 1980s, bringing high profile civil rights leaders up on charges of voter fraud for their attempt to get minorities registered as a means of intimidation) as Attorney General. Did you know that early in their careers both Chief Justices William Rehnquist and John Roberts took cases in support of voter suppression? It will be interesting to see who Trump appoints to the Supreme Court. Perhaps even in the face of unfavorable demographic trends Republicans will be able keep climate denial in the White House for at least the next few administrations.
November 20, 2016 at 2:43 pm
When you try to smear somebody, it helps if the smear is true.
Ebell does not deny the climate does not change, he simply points out the evidence man is changing the climate to any significant amount is lacking.
Bannon is not a white supremacist, that is leftist fantasy, he has printed stories pointing out the costs of the EPA regulations and the dubious science that attempts to support those rules,
Flynn if you bother to look at the entire video points out Islam has a radical element in it that is like a cancer that needs to be cut out. 29 percent of muslims want you under Sharia law so they can rape your nine year old daughter. That is not a way of thinking the west can live with.
Sessions accuser was sent to jail for criminal activity a few years later.
Your rants against Rehnquist and Roberts are just ludicrous. They and others on the court simply looked at a legal argument which is what courts are for unless you leftists think courts should be what you want and hang anybody who disagrees.
You are in serious need of a lesson in truth and why lying is bad for both you and the country.;
November 20, 2016 at 6:55 pm
When you try to defend against some true statement by calling it a “smear” , it helps if your attempted defense shows any semblance of intelligence. Yours does not, and is just more of your confused maundering and wasting of our time.
Your “Ebell blah-blah-blah” has NO bearing on the fact that President Pussy Grabber has tasked him with the dismantling of the EPA and he wants to do it. We don’t give a rat’s rear end about his ignorant thoughts on climate change science.
Bannon has printed stories pointing out the costs of the EPA regulations and the dubious science that attempts to support those rules, you say? Again, who cares much about what he says about climate change, since the real concern with Bannon that he is in fact a HUGE white supremacist, and the only fantasy around is the one in your head where you seem unaware of the FACT that there is overwhelming proof of that available to anyone who looks for it.
WHAT is not a way of thinking the west can live with? Are you talking about Flynn’s insane ranting about Muslims? I agree with you if you are.
Sessions accuser was sent to jail for criminal activity a few years later, you say? What the HELL are you talking about? The accusations against Sessions are that he is a lifelong racist, and they have been made by many people over several decades..
And a single sentence mentioning Rehnquist and Roberts is a freaking RANT in your mind? That’s what’s ludicrous. You obviously don’t know about Rehnquist’s early days in AZ or know what decisions Roberts has been involved in.
“You are in serious need of a lesson in truth and why lying is bad for both you and the country” JFC! You are such a moron!
BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS!
BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS!
BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS!
BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS!
BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS!
BTB-TUPOS!
Please!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
November 20, 2016 at 7:55 pm
“Climate denier” is generally shorthand for “climate science denier”, which means denying points that are well-established in the scientific community, in this case that the majority of warming since mid of last century has been due to human causes, especially our emissions of carbon dioxide. In fact, best estimates are that we have been responsible for more than 100% of the warming as the trend over this period given only natural factors would have been a slight cooling. So yes, he is a climate denier — in that sense, which is the sense in which most people who are not climate deniers seeking to obfuscate their denial use it.
Regarding Flynn and Sharia, I doubt there are too many Muslims in the US that are interested in establishing that here. If they wanted Sharia they wouldn’t of come here. Regarding Bannon, I know that white nationalists argue that they are not white supremacists. I specifically called him a white nationalist.
Regarding Rehnquist and Roberts, I am not speaking of their time on the Supreme Court but in their careers prior to reaching the Supreme Court. For Rehnquist, look up “Operation Eagle Eye” of Arizona in the 1960s. “Rehnquist in Arizona: a militant conservative in 60’s politics” By Robert Lindsey, August 4, 1986 in the NYT. Regarding John Roberts, see “Inside John Roberts’ Decades-Long Crusade Against the Voting Rights Act” by Ari Berman, August 10, 2015 in Politico Magazine.
Regarding Jeff Sessions, his history was sufficient that he was denied a federal judgeship and has been back-benched ever since. For more, please see:
“Why Jeff Sessions As Attorney General Horrifies Voting Rights Advocates”
by Tierney Sneed, Nov 18, 2016
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/why-trump-s-choice-of-jeff-sessions-as-ag-is-alarming-voting-rights-advocates
November 20, 2016 at 2:32 pm
I see a lot of comments by people who haven’t a clue what anything means as they have never looked into past ice coverages and changes.
Take in the record statements, That is from 1979, all ice coverage or changes before that are simply ignored. NASA says the current antarctica ice is similar to 2001-2002 or 1986 so despite what the headline is saying the world is not ending. As far as the arctic is concerned the low in September was the same as 2007 and higher than 2012. The freeze up in October was lower than normal because a warm weather pattern was effecting the place and that went away in November as the mid west freezing its rear end off makes clear.
NASA research shows the arctic was ice from 8500-6500 BP in summer, the northwest passage was and is ice free in summer since at least 1906. Per trees found under a glacier in Alaska a thousand years old and more, the Arctic was warmer than today before the little ice age started. Ice core studies of Greenland show the last 4000 years was warmer than today except for the little ice age.
NASA model also show the world warming from on going changes in earths tilt and orbit, warming for the next 25000 years a warming 340 times more than the warming from CO2 measured in a Berkeley study which was 0.034F. The study put the warming at 2/10ths of a watt, you do the math if you do not like 0.034F.
All that melting as the world comes out of the little ice age is rising the oceans.; Trends from tidal gauges on places not moving up or down is 3 inches in 100 years. Places not moving up or down are Johnston atoll, the west coast and Sydney, places moving up of down are places like Miami, Newark and New Orleans. Since the land is moving up or down were NASA has its facilities, it assumes 5 inches for planning purposes.
You can look at the grafts in this blog and assume the world is ending or look at the actual data from all sources and know that the claims are basically BS.
November 20, 2016 at 5:02 pm
Lord love a dozen ducks!!! Is Bates really so stupid and clueless that he would say that he “sees a lot of comments by people who haven’t a clue what anything means”? Dunning Kruger personified!
You can look at the “grafts” in this comment—-all the same old Bates BS “grafted” from the denier world and know that the claims are basically BS.
BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS!
BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS!
BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS!
BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS!
BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS! BTB-TUPOS!
BTB-TUPOS!
Please!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
November 20, 2016 at 7:13 pm
Yeah; we’ve wasted enough words on Bates. . . .
November 20, 2016 at 11:12 pm
D-K for sure, or a tiresome Poe. Can anyone really be this stupid?
I wasn’t going to reply to Bates except to say that every single one of his statements in this comment of his has been previously shown to be wrong by more than one of us. And notice the repeat of “2/10ths watt”, a day or so after it’s been pointed out he’s clueless to the meaning of that value.
He was corrected on two occasions months ago for his misspelling of “graphs”, and for a while he was getting it correct. But this wild decline of total sea ice in both hemispheres might be troublesome even for old Tom, and rather than try to write an original response, perhaps he feels compelled to flood this blog with even more furiously copy/pasted bits of his previous dreck. Poor soul.
Seriously, this trend in sea ice is very unsettling. The amount of the departure from previous patterns is hard to fathom. I keep hoping it’s an instrumentation problem, but with more than one sensor/satellite system reporting it, and the relevant specialists commenting on it, I can’t deny it’s real. [Insert expletive here.]
November 20, 2016 at 11:36 pm
I have suggested a number of times that Bates may be a Poe because no one “really be this stupid”. If he is a Poe, he is not a very good one—unimaginative. repetitive. and simply annoying—–a proper Poe would try to get at least some things correct to gain some minimal credibility. Whether he’s a “D” grade Poe or the moron that he appears to be, he has outlived his welcome.
BTB-TUPOS!
Please!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
RE: the sea ice decline. I now have two things to worry about and lose sleep over between now and next spring. What’s sea ice going to do over the next few months and what’s going to happen in the first 100 days of president P-Grabber.
November 20, 2016 at 3:17 pm
See NASA ice changes since 1984
http://climate.nasa.gov/news/2510/see-how-arctic-sea-ice-is-losing-its-bulwark-against-warming-summers/
November 20, 2016 at 10:29 pm
Elon may still be interested in going to Mars but maybe we could send Bull$hit Bates to Venus? Then he can show us how “life giving” his precious CO2 is….