The proverb is too often used, but the mythical frog that sits blissfully unaware in slow-boiling water offers the perfect warning to the world about the growing danger from North Korea's nuclear obsession. The problem has simmered for so long – punctuated by occasional outbursts of activity that soon calm again – people naturally enough assume the threat is being carefully managed and is of little enduring consequence.
Such complacency is mistaken. Better to recognise only a little extra heat could quickly transform an irritant into a violent crisis. The challenge is serious for security in a region where Australia has substantial interest, particularly with key trading partners South Korea, Japan and China. It is past time to devote sustained diplomatic resources to finding a solution.
![A man in Seoul watches a TV news program on North Korea's missile launches.](/web/20170215112839im_/http://www.theage.com.au/content/dam/images/g/u/a/x/8/w/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gudhrd.png/1487152130824.jpg)
There is undoubtedly a comic aspect to the behaviour of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, who with a dynasty of dictators has encouraged a kind of insouciance about the "hermit kingdom". The bizarre reverence for the supreme leader, extravagant displays of synchronised marching and blatant propaganda have made North Korea a global punchline, the vaudeville, yet clumsy, villain.
It is healthy to puncture absurdity with satire, yet this should not obscure the regime's deadly intent or the painful burden carried by the North Korean people. The international danger was on startling display last week when North Korea fired a ballistic missile into the Sea of Japan. This follows five nuclear explosive tests in the past decade, including two last year. There are also fears North Korea is amassing a stockpile of plutonium and highly enriched uranium.
The inescapable conclusion is North Korea is creeping ever closer to its goal of equipping an intercontinental missile with a nuclear payload. The intent of this weapons program could be defensive in nature for the infamously paranoid regime, or serve as a bargaining chip in negotiations. Or the objective could be far more destructive.
Whatever rationalisation is employed to explain Pyongyang's behaviour cannot obscure the fact that regional security will be vastly more complicated by a technologically capable, nuclear-armed North Korea. South Korea is fiercely debating the deployment of a US missile defence system, and the timing of this latest test appeared deliberately provocative, to interrupt Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's meeting with US President Donald Trump. Given that there is great uncertainty about Mr Trump's temperament, the prospect for missteps is alarming.
Adding to the febrile environment is the murky case of Kim Jong-nam, the estranged half-brother of Kim Jong-un, who died in Malaysia on Monday after suddenly falling ill at the airport. Speculation is swirling that he was the victim of assassination, possibly by two North Korean spies, possibly by poison. What actually occurred is far from clear, but in such a case, emotion could quickly overtake reason.
It is not that the world has not tried with North Korea. Resolutions of the United Nations Security Council are routinely ignored, and negotiations, known as the six-party talks – involving China, Japan, North Korea, Russia, South Korea and the United States – have sought to end the stand-off, only to see North Korea repeatedly backtrack on firm commitments.
The challenge is exceptionally difficult. It may already be too late to prevent North Korea deploying a nuclear weapon. But without a sustained effort to reduce tension the potential for catastrophic miscalculation will only grow. Part of that effort is first to recognise and act on the seriousness of the problem, despite the many other pressing dangers demanding of attention.