EclectEcon

Richard Posner and Deirdre McCloskey deserve the next Nobel Prize in Economics

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Biases in the Media

We all know the media are biased. We see their biases most clearly whenever they say things or slant things or use loaded terms that are counter to our own personal views. And our perceptions of media bias are influenced by our personal views.

There has been a graphic floating around Facebook that, to my mind at least, doesn't recognize the left-ish elitist interventionist views of many of the major media. That graphic, in itself, reflects major biases.

Here, courtesy of Adrian Sjoberg, is that same graphic, redone to reflect what I think are better characterisations of the slants of most of the major media; he has also included a few from Canada (note: I  would put the CBC even farther to the left than he did).

This graphic shows what I think many of my economist and libertarian-type friends believe: most of the major media are biased to the left, toward thinking that bigger gubmnt is better and that market failures are more serious than gubmnt failures.

Digression: some thirty years ago when I was teaching economics courses for working journalists, one prominent reporter for the CBC confided in several of us that she was really left-wing but that no one knew it. She was so unaware of her biases that she didn't know she was one of the people who stood out for us as being extreme left.

 

Pikachu

Last summer I met a number of people in the park playing Pokemon Go. After a short time, I started playing it, too, and I must confess to being slightly addicted/obsessed with the game. So here is my latest snow stomp art. This is for all the friends I have made and all the friends I have interacted with because of Pokemon Go.

Links to most of my previous snow-stomp art (in reverse chronological order):

      Pikachu (this post)

      Happy New Year, 2017

      O Tannenbaum

      Nativity Scene

Special Weather Statement

Think Tropics

Qubix

Valentine, 2016

Paisley'd Circles

Happy New Year, 2016

The House of the Rising Sun

Easter Eggs

A weak pattern in the blowing snow.

The same pattern after some melting

New Year's Champagne

Tiptoe Through the Tulips

Happy Valentine's Day

Cabaret

A Christmas Tree (my first effort)

Happy New Year, 2017

The wind blew away most of the snow before I had a chance to work with it, but Happy New Year, 2017!
(note the fine brickwork on clock tower)

Links to most of my previous snow-stomp art (in reverse chronological order):

      Happy New Year, 2017 (this post)

      O Tannenbaum

      Nativity Scene

Special Weather Statement

Think Tropics

Qubix

Valentine, 2016

Paisley'd Circles

Happy New Year, 2016

The House of the Rising Sun

Easter Eggs

A weak pattern in the blowing snow.

The same pattern after some melting

New Year's Champagne

Tiptoe Through the Tulips

Happy Valentine's Day

Cabaret

A Christmas Tree (my first effort)

Marion Pritchard (1920-2016)

Another hero in the battles against Nazi anti-semitism. The Washington Post article about her is much more thorough than the Wikipaedia entry. From WaPo,

“It was a beautiful spring morning, and it was a street I had known since I had been born, and all of a sudden you see little kids picked up by their pigtails or by a leg and thrown over the side of a truck,” Mrs. Pritchard said in an interview published in the volume “Voices From the Holocaust” by Harry James Cargas. “You stop but you can’t believe it.”

She watched two women attempt to stop the soldiers, only to be put in the truck with the children. At that moment, she said, she committed herself to fighting Nazi persecution in whatever way possible. ...

At times, she performed what was known as the “mission of disgrace,” falsely declaring herself to be the unwed mother of a baby to conceal the child’s Jewish identity. A toddler spent several months with her before she found a safer home outside Amsterdam. ...

One day, three Germans and a Dutch policeman came to search the house and left, having failed to detect the hideaway. Shortly thereafter, the Dutchman, who nonetheless suspected that something was awry, returned and discovered the hideout. Before he could make an arrest, Mrs. Pritchard grabbed a small revolver that she had kept for such an emergency and fatally shot him.

“I would do it again, under the same circumstances,” she told an interviewer years later, “but it still bothers me.”

Marion Pritchard died last week on December 11th, 2016. She was 96.

 

 

O Tannenbaum

I had to wait for the snow to stop and the wind to die down a bit. The surface was a crusty, icy cover over a bunch of snow.

Links to most of my previous snow-stomp art (in reverse chronological order):

      O Tannenbaum (this post)

      Nativity Scene

Special Weather Statement

Think Tropics

Qubix

Valentine, 2016

Paisley'd Circles

Happy New Year, 2016

The House of the Rising Sun

Easter Eggs

A weak pattern in the blowing snow.

The same pattern after some melting

New Year's Champagne

Tiptoe Through the Tulips

Happy Valentine's Day

Cabaret

A Christmas Tree (my first effort)

EclectEcon Is Still One of the Top 100 Economics Blogs

.... despite the fact that I post very little about economic policy here anymore. I won't provide the link because I don't think the "honour" is worth all that much, but I like the graphic that was sent to me about it:

If You Think Israel Has a Right to Exist in Some Form, ....

This should alarm or at least concern you. It should also help explain some of Israel's actions over the past 70 years. From this morning's Daily Alert:

• Ayatollah Khamenei: Israel Won't Exist in 25 Years
  The Zionist regime will not exist in 25 years provided that Palestinians and other Muslims continue their struggle against the Zionists, Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Khamenei told a delegation from Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Tehran on Wednesday. "The only way to save the Holy Quds [Jerusalem] is to fight and resist and other ways are doomed to (failure)," he added. "The holy land will be liberated thanks to the resistance and striving of Palestinian groups."  (Tasnim-Iran)

 

Nativity Scene - Snow Stomp Art

There's a reason I don't do representational art:

As I wrote to some of my friends,

It looks as if the snails and turtles came to visit baby Jesus,
Mary has her tongue sticking out and is a bit of a dickhead,
Joseph has his penis hanging out,
and Jesus is a log in a box.

Not a bad camel on the right, though.

Links to most of my previous snow-stomp art (in reverse chronological order):

      Nativity Scene (this post)

Special Weather Statement

Think Tropics

Qubix

Valentine, 2016

Paisley'd Circles

Happy New Year, 2016

The House of the Rising Sun

Easter Eggs

A weak pattern in the blowing snow.

The same pattern after some melting

New Year's Champagne

Tiptoe Through the Tulips

Happy Valentine's Day

Cabaret

A Christmas Tree (my first effort)

Is It Possible for West to Meet West in Israel and Palestine?

The Elder of Ziyon has a blog post about a social get-together between Israelis on the West Bank and Palestinians who live near the settlement.

The post quotes heavily from the Washington Post about the nature of peaceful exchanges between the people. It sounded nice, hopeful, though guarded in some ways. An excerpt:

Everyone was very polite. A Palestinian farmer sat next to an Israeli diplomat. They live a mile and a world apart. A rabbi from the settlement broke bread
with a Palestinian stonemason. Guests shook hands, took selfies, patted one another on the back. Both sides seemed a little stunned to be together celebrating a Jewish holiday.

The Palestinians spoke decent to fluent Hebrew. The settlers didn’t speak much Arabic.

One Palestinian stood and told the guests that he didn’t want to see the West Bank “turn into Syria.”

...

There were some remarkable moments.

Ahmad Mousa, 58, a contractor from the neighboring Palestinian village of Wadi Al Nis, said, “We consider ourselves part of the family, part of the people of Efrat.”

You do not hear that much in the West Bank, at least not in public, with smartphone cameras rolling.

He said, “Seventy percent of our village works in Efrat. They treat us very well and we are very good to them, too.”

Noman Othman, 41, a construction worker from Wadi Al Nis, said this was his first time as a guest in a home in the settlement, although he had worked here for years, building houses.

“This is good,” he said. “Our relationship is evolving.”

 

And then the Palestinians who participated were questioned by the PA police. From the Elder's post,

But in Palestinian media, this story was treated as a catastrophe.

As soon as this story was reported, the deputy governor of Bethlehem Mohammed Taha promised an investigation and possible arrests for this crime of meeting Jews who live in Judea. Taha said he will initiate legal proceedings against the participants, saying it is not the culture and education of Palestinians to visit these Jews, it is a "dangerous and unacceptable phenomenon," and he will follow up on the matter with Palestinian security services and factions.

Indeed, that is what happened:

The Palestinian Authority’s (PA) security forces arrested three Palestinian Arabs from the Gush Etzion area who “dared” to visit the sukkah of Oded Revivi, mayor of the town of Efrat.

Channel 2 News reported on Thursday evening that the Arabs who were arrested were questioned over allegations they met with "baby-killers", an apparent reference to General Nitzan Alon, the head of the IDF's Operations Directorate, and the Shai District Police Commander, who were also guests in the same sukkah.

Revivi said on Thursday evening, “Yesterday we sat in the sukkah - Jews and Muslims. We ate, drank and talked about common themes and our hope for a better neighborhood and for peace. Today the PA summoned some of the Muslim guests for questioning.

“All those who pressure the Israeli government to enter a peace process with the Palestinian Authority should be reminded that they behave in a way that does the opposite of encouraging peace with their Jewish neighbors,” continued Revivi. “An authority which names squares after suicide bombers and summons for questioning citizens who drink coffee and talk about peace with their Jewish neighbors is not one that promotes peace.

“I salute my neighbors who were not afraid to come to our sukkah yesterday, to talk about peace, who asked to be photographed and to show the world that they are brave enough to stand up for peace,” he stressed.

I hope that the Washington Post publishes a follow-up. The arrests are just as important a story as the meeting was.

 

 

Iowa Election Futures Market Says Hillary Has a Nearly 90% Chance of Winning.

https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_PRES16_WTA.cfm

Like it or not, when people put their money where their mouths are, they predict reasonably well and certainly better than polls, on average.

John D. Rockefeller Did More To Improve Human Existence Than Did Teddy Roosevelt

That's the point made by Don Boudreaux here, with his quotation and discussion of McCloskey's book on the bourgeoisie.

Lives spent trying to figure out what customers want and how to get the item to them in a nonruinous way and how to improve service and quality at lower cost, one could argue, lead  [sic] the bourgeoisie to ethical attitudes superior in some ways to those of a haughty aristocracy or an envious peasantry or a proud clerisy.  Or at least [Adam] Smith argued.

……..
……..
This Smithian-Montesquieuian-McCloskeyan argument is certainly correct.  How saddening and maddening it is, then, that so much applause, even from citizens of bourgeois societies, is reserved not for those who risk their own funds in efforts to try, peacefully, to better satisfy other people’s voluntarily expressed desires but, rather, for those who arrogantly order other people about using threats of violence.

For example, John D. Rockefeller, Sr., is to this day called a “robber baron” and is thought by many to have been an anti-social scoundrel as a businessman.  In contrast, Teddy Roosevelt has his face carved famously into a mountain and is widely celebrated as a great and “Progressive” seer.  How mistaken and backward!   During any one ordinary day of his business career J.D. Rockefeller produced more net good for humanity than Teddy Roosevelt did over his entire lifetime.  Indeed, the case is even stronger for Rockefeller: he was without question a huge net contributor to humankind; in contrast, T.R. was quite likely, on net, a wrecker.

Likewise, Sam Walton probably did more than a dozen leading social justice advocates.

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The Blue Jays vs. The Indians in the 2016 AL Championship Series

The upcoming series between Trono and Cleveland should be tight, close, and exciting. Cleveland had a better record during the regular season (94-67 for Cleveland vs 89-73 for Toronto). But the overall performance stats look very close.

Using the two statistics I like to rely on for quick summaries, OPS [team on-base average plus slugging pecentage] and pitchers' OOPS [Opponents' OPS given up by the team's pitchers]:

Team        Batting OPS        Pitchers's OOPS

Cleveland     .759                    .711

Trono            .755                    .703

Cleveland appears to have a slight edge in hitting, while Trono appears to have a slight edge in pitching.

I expect these numbers are somewhat misleading, though, in that the teams have had some very impressive streaks. Also, it is unlikely the teams will use more than four starting pitchers for the series, and they both have four good starters (especially the Blue Jays do). And who know what hitters will do?

As I said it should be tight, close, and exciting. We're looking forward to it. First game is tonight at 8pm EDT.

Let's Have Some Fun and Study Some Statistics!!! No Foolin'

This post is actually about studying statistics. It is not about polls or the misuse of data or anything remotely political. No foolin'.

My older son, David Ricardo Palmer, is currently taking an online statistics course. When I learned about it, I suggested that maybe I could do some of the work alongside and along with him because I'd like to relearn statistics. No foolin'.

I studied a fair amount of statistics as a student: one course as an undergrad (in which I received a gentlemen's C-), and at least five courses as a graduate student. At several times, I put in to teach the "intro statistics for economists" course at The University of Western Ontario just so I could relearn statistics.

That never happened, though, and after nearly 83 years since last studying the topic, I figured my statistics tools had become a tad rusty.

Times have changed since I studied statistics.

First, for an MBA course they don't mess about with calculus proofs of existence or discussing the properties of estimators. It's a cookbook course, which I think is wise. I had a two-term cookbook course in gradskool, and it was the only one that stuck with me at all.

Second, back then we had to do all our calculations with pencil and paper or with hand-crank calculators. No foolin'. Nowadays, students are expected to use Excel. That's both good and bad. It's good because it saves them from the drudgery of performing endless calculations (e.g. to invert a 3x3 matrix). It's bad because Excel spits out answers and students don't really get a good grasp of the intuition, the understanding of the statistical tests and what they mean or how to interpret them.

Overall, it's fun. No foolin'.

And a special bonus: I get to spend more time with my son!

 

Cookie Frosting

You know what frosts my cookies? That some Trump-like clown like Ross Perot kept George H. W. Bush from winning re-election, and yet a sensible third-party option like Gary Johnson can't even appear in the debates and public fora because the major parties rewrote the rules after the inroads made by Perot and Nader.

No, I won't defend every position and statement by Gary Johnson. But when I consider the alternatives, I'm aghast. When I think of Trump, I begin to wonder if maybe Clinton wouldn't be so bad after all; and then when I think of Clinton, I begin to wonder if maybe Trump wouldn't be so bad after all. And vice versa.

They are both big gubmnt demagogues who cater to cronyism. Both are bullies (albeit in different ways). Both appeal to unenlightened, naive views about economics. Gary Johnson and Bill Weld are SO much better.

It is both sad and maddening.

CBC Neutrality? Sure

Morton's Fork and/or the Horns of a Dilemma

The current US election presents voters with two major candidates, neither of whom is even slightly desirable as a President of the US.

And so voters are faced with a difficult choice between two evils. In some respects, this choice might be viewed by some as Morton's Fork, but really the voters are caught between the horns of dilemma.

If I were still voting in the US, I'd reject the choice. I'd reject the dilemma as false. I'd vote for Gary Johnson. I think I'd like him as a president. And to all his detractors, I know I would prefer him to the other options.

For reference, from Wikipaedia,

A Hobson's choice [EE: only one option is offered] is different from:

• Dilemma: a choice between two or more options, none of which is attractive.
• False dilemma: only two choices are considered, when in fact there are others.
• Catch-22: a logical paradox arising from a situation in which an individual needs something that can only be acquired by not being in that very situation.
• Morton's fork, and a double bind: choices yield equivalent, and often undesirable, results.
• Blackmail and extortion: the choice between paying money (or some non-monetary good or deed) or risk suffering an unpleasant action.

 

Who Didn't Think Trump Was/Is Like That?

I am disgusted by Trump's abuse of power and position... actually, I always have been. And the recent revelations of his abuse of women, not to mention his abuse of suppliers and others with whom he had financial dealings, just confirms my dis-ease with having that man as president of the US.

But given his history, his bullying tactics in the early primaries, his blatant lying, and his use of sexual innuendo and machismo so often during the past year and a half, who didn't expect it? This is a man who seeks more power and who will surely abuse it... blatantly.

Did the republican voters not see this early on? Why not? Because he would be "our bully" and would stand up to the rest of the world on behalf of us? I think they saw it and applauded it. Fortunately at least some are having second thoughts.

That's the voters I'm talking about. But what about the politicians and other people who publicly supported Trump? Does it take tapes of confessions of sex abuse to get them to see what a scary man he is?

There is no excuse for their continued support of Trump, and there is no excuse for their having supported him before the sex-abuse interview was disseminated.

Here's to people like Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney, et alia, who refused to support Trump early on. As for the others? okay, they saw some virtue in party loyalty.... but that betrays a serious lack of integrity on their part --- a serious lack of integrity coupled with a serious blindness to what the man is like. Phhhht.

That having been said, Clinton scares me, too. She's a power-hungry person who will continue to sell favours and will continue to increase the size of gubmnt, with the effect of distorting incentives toward the seeking of gubmnt benefits and away from productive activity.

My choice: Vote for Johnson and Weld.

Somewhat Sensitive? Overly Defensive? Nevertheless, I AM OFFENDED!!

Recently I was sent an audition notice that reads (in part),

Seeking AFRICAN CANADIAN, CAUCASIAN AND HISPANIC Grandparents or Senior Couples (ages 70 to 90) for a Telecommunication TV commercial. .... Looking for Seniors who are clueless about technology. (emphasis added)...

To apply [please send, inter alia,]... a short description or story of how clueless they are with technology.

I resent the hint that seniors are or might typically be clueless about technology. Some are, for sure, but there is absolutely no reason to feed or promote that stereotype.

What if the notice said, "Looking for (females/Canadians/Arabs/Mexicans/Scotsmen/cheerleaders/Jews/athletes/sociologists/York graduates/whatever) who are clueless about technology"? Why is such a characterization of seniors tolerated or even smiled about, when surely it would not be tolerated if it were about some other group.

I'm tempted to write something very nasty about this audition call using Fortran II.

Yes, Free Trade Hurts Some People, but the Overall Benefits Are Overwhelming.

I am appalled by the extent to which so many political leaders of Canada and the US seem to be pandering to vested interests in North America, arguing in favour of protectionism. As the late great Canadian economist Harry Johnson once said, "Trade barriers don't protect jobs; they protect inefficient business owners who can't deal with the competition."

And now The Economist has come out in favour of free trade (with a well-structured social safety net to help losers from any type of competition). An excerpt:

Protectionism, by contrast, hurts consumers and does little for workers. The worst-off benefit far more from trade than the rich. A study of 40 countries found that the richest consumers would lose 28% of their purchasing power if cross-border trade ended; but those in the bottom tenth would lose 63%. The annual cost to American consumers of switching to non-Chinese tyres after Barack Obama slapped on anti-dumping tariffs in 2009 was around $1.1 billion, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics. That amounts to over $900,000 for each of the 1,200 jobs that were “saved”.

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The Myth of Middle-Class Stagnation in Canada

There is a commonly accepted view that middle-class incomes have stagnated in Canada. This view is wrong.

Here's why.

The inflation-adjusted median income of Canadian families before taxes was 7.0 percent lower in 2011 than it was in 1976. It’s easy to conclude from such a statistic that, over the past several decades, middle-class Canadians have indeed not gained economically.

...

The statistics that suggest stagnation suffer several problems, including:

• failure to adjust income for changes in taxes and government transfers;
• failure to adjust family income for changes in the number of people in the typical Canadian family;
• an overestimate of the amount of inflation suffered by the Canadian dollar.

1. The pre-tax median household income has fallen, but the post-tax median household disposable real income has risen! ... by about 5.6%. In other words, median households have more income at their disposal than they did; they can buy more goods and services, save more, and/or donate more to charity. They are better off financially, not even considering the other corrections to the data.
2. The oft-cited statistic refers to household income. But households are typically smaller now than they used to be. Median household income per family member has increased considerably! From the study,
   

   In 2011, the average number of people in a Canadian family was 2.3, which is 19 percent lower than the 1976 figure of 2.9 persons per family. This difference is not small. It means that the seemingly meager 5.6 percent increase in real median post-tax and -transfer family income becomes a 30.7 percent increase—in per-family-member income—once the data are adjusted for family size.

3. As economists have been saying ever since I started studying economics 87 years ago, the CPI overstates the rate of inflation. Some studies say it overstates the rate of inflation by anywhere from 0.2 percentage points up to maybe as much as 0.5 percentage points. Using the CPI to deflate median income, then, over-deflates current incomes, and by a considerable amount. Again from the study,
   

   Adjusting for inflation by correcting for this bias in the CPI, we find that in 2011 the income per member of the Canadian family earning the median after-tax and -transfer income was 52.1 percent higher than in 1976. This figure suggests impressive economic improvement, not stagnation. It is all the more marked when compared to the initial 7.0 percent decline cited above over the same period.

This conclusion bears repeating:

Overall, contrary to the politically motivated statement that the incomes of people in the middle class have stagnated over the past 40 years or even fallen by 7%, the truth is that the real disposable incomes of people in the middle class in Canada have risen by over 50%. 

[via Cafe Hayek]