A senior cabinet minister has ducked a question about whether the Liberal party should be preferencing One Nation ahead of its coalition partner, the Nationals, but has flagged efforts at the federal level to peel votes away from Pauline Hanson.
The industry minister, Arthur Sinodinos, told the ABC on Sunday he wasn’t “particularly focused on preferences at the moment, I’m focused more on the policies that help us to get voters back”.
His remarks followed confirmation over the weekend that the Liberal party in Western Australia would preference One Nation ahead of its alliance partner, the Nationals, in the upper house country regions, and in return, demand that One Nation preference the Liberals above Labor in all the lower house seats it is contesting in the state election.
In the 2001 election, the then Liberal premier Richard Court insisted that One Nation be put last on the ballot papers. The new preference deal for the coming election, which departs from that practice, is undermining the already testy alliance between the Liberals and the Nationals in WA.
Given John Howard also took the position in 2001 of putting One Nation last, federal Liberals, including the prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, have been attempting to avoid answering questions in recent weeks about whether or not preferencing One Nation was the right thing to do.
Internally, some in the Coalition believe striking preference deals with One Nation will help establish a protest party in the political mainstream, weakening the position of the Liberal party in a structural sense at a time when voter disaffection is rife, and published polling indicates there is a demonstrable drift away from the major parties.
The Liberals and Nationals are spooked by the One Nation surge in regional areas. A new Galaxy poll published over the weekend suggests Hanson’s popularity could help the party pick up more than 20 seats and hold the balance of power in the 93-seat Queensland parliament.
Support for One Nation has jumped from 16% to 23% in three months, while the popularity of the Queensland premier, Annastacia Palaszczuk, and the LNP, is declining.
On Sunday, Sinodinos declared that the One Nation of today was a “very different beast to what it was 20 years ago”.
It was put to him that One Nation’s policies had not actually evolved in 20 years, but Sinodinos said “they are a lot more sophisticated, they have clearly resonated with a lot of people”.
He said the government’s job was to treat One Nation the same as any other party represented in the parliament, but “that doesn’t mean we have to agree with their policies”.
“When it comes to preferencing, we have to make decisions – in this case, a state decision, not a federal decision – based on the local circumstances.
“My job, Malcolm Turnbull’s job, is to take votes away from One Nation, away from Labor, away from the Greens and maximise the LNP vote.
“I’m not particularly focused on preferences at the moment. I’m focused more on the policies that help us to get voters back.”
The Labor leader Bill Shorten declared on Sunday Labor would not be doing preference deals with One Nation because “you’ve got to stand for something in politics.”
Shorten said John Howard had decreed One Nation be put last, and that was Labor’s position also. “I hope that will be the same for the federal Liberal party,” Shorten told reporters.
A Newspoll published last week captured support for independents and small parties at 19% (up from 15%), and One Nation at 8%, which is back to where it was in 1998. The government’s primary vote has dropped four points over the summer.
Sinodinos said Australian voters were currently “mad as hell” and it was going to take some time for the government’s policies to “seep through to them and convince them that the way of One Nation is not the way to go”.
The industry minister noted that the architect of One Nation’s 2% tax policy during Hanson’s first stint in federal parliament “has just gone bankrupt”.
“If this is economic policy these characters are going to be running, I think it is going to be very important for us to make sure the public understand the implications of One Nation’s policies where they exist,” he said.
His comments about head-to-head competition with One Nation for hearts and minds are more explicit than others in the government.
Turnbull has regularly attacked protectionism and “political opportunists” who want to turn Australia inward, but he has characterised his critique in general terms.
Without naming One Nation, Turnbull told the National Press Club at the beginning of February there were some in politics “doing nothing more than playing on the fears and hardships of those in our community who feel they have not shared in the benefits of globalisation and technological change”.
The government has come back after the Christmas break with several policies designed to grab the attention of voters flirting with One Nation.
It has also been talking up the prospects of “clean” coal technology, a popular message in regional Queensland.
After a summer of expenses scandals, which tend to enrage alienated voters, the government has moved this past week to remove the gold pass travel entitlement. It has also dumped plans to compulsorily acquire prime farmland in Queensland, which was to be used for joint training exercises with Singapore’s military.
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